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Old 09-17-2010, 10:13 AM
 
Location: Macao
13,014 posts, read 19,929,097 times
Reputation: 6592

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Caladium View Post
It's interesting to have something like this unfold before our eyes, so we can see how it goes. I'm not willing to try it myself, but I enjoy watching others undertake projects like this. I'm hesitant to make predictions as far as how it will succeed. Some projects like this go well, but I've seen urban gentrification go sour in Los Angeles. I knew someone who moved into a downtown loft and later regret it. I also know some people who bought a house in a seedy part of Long Beach that was supposedly "up and coming" and the neighborhood never improved.

Of course, DC is a slightly different situation, since this it has more residents than downtown LA and more people flowing in for jobs who need housing. And timing is important, too. Maybe this DC neighborhood will fare better since this is happening towards the end of a recession rather than before it (so it will be less likely to be plagued by foreclosures and people abandoning homes because they couldn't resell and they didn't enjoy living there as much as they thought they might).
I'm kind of thinking DC might become like NYC is now...maybe.

NYC was pretty sketchy for some time...and then suddenly it seemed to be #125th most dangerous city with 124 worse than it. I use to live in NYC, and walked absolutely everywhere anytime of day or night.

Sounds like DC isn't quite like NYC in that regard yet....but maybe it could be?
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Old 09-17-2010, 10:19 AM
 
Location: Macao
13,014 posts, read 19,929,097 times
Reputation: 6592
Quote:
Originally Posted by brooklynborndad View Post
Some will move elsewhere anyway. Non gentrifying cities do not always have the same people living there from generation to generation. People get jobs, move, etc.

In general though, working class african americans will move to PG, Charles County Md, etc. Lower middle class african americans (both those already LMC who sell their homes, and working class ones moving on up) will move further out in MD than working class ones. Hispanics will continue to move to VA as well as MD. Post bubble, theres lots of relatively cheap housing in the further suburbs, though transportation costs will be higher for those working in the District (at some point wages for unskilled labor in the district will have to raise to equilibrate). How traumatic this is for current residents will depend on whether they are owners or renters, and what their employment situation is.
Lower middle class...I've never understood why they stay in the cities. If you have a high school education or less, it seems you'd be served much better by going to some rural towns somewhere...where $9/hour at Wal-Mart is enough to get a decent house and such like many other people live on out in those regions.

I think, generally, historically, lower middle class whites have just not ventured into the cities at all. It seems that just the last 10-15 years, lower middle class african-americans are realizing their quality of life would go WAY UP by moving to southern towns...even if their job types don't go way up. It seems to me anyways. (Maybe their use to be a stigma to going to southern towns in the past. I say southern, because northern small towns seem to be overwhelmingly white).
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Old 09-17-2010, 10:38 AM
 
Location: You want kimchi with that?
8,479 posts, read 6,185,761 times
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"I think, generally, historically, lower middle class whites have just not ventured into the cities at all."

your history is narrow. In the 1960s there were lower middle clas whites in NYC.


" It seems that just the last 10-15 years, lower middle class african-americans are realizing their quality of life would go WAY UP by moving to southern towns...even if their job types don't go way up. It seems to me anyways. (Maybe their use to be a stigma to going to southern towns in the past. I say southern, because northern small towns seem to be overwhelmingly white)."



Its really going to involve very specific questions of jobs, community ties, etc. Most blacks who have moved south in the last few decades have gone to metro areas, AFAICT, not to small towns. I think the QOL for african americans in most small southern towns is still fairly poor. As is quality of schools, health care, etc.
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Old 09-17-2010, 10:41 AM
 
Location: Virginia
18,717 posts, read 15,660,776 times
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It seems like this thread has drifted away from being about northern Virginia. Maybe this would be a good discussion on the DC forum, or the Urban Planning forum.
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Old 09-17-2010, 11:08 AM
 
Location: Expatriate Philadelphian in Northern Virginia
7,788 posts, read 12,020,797 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brooklynborndad View Post
"like in those bubbly suburbs where prices collapsed, like Prince William County"
Loudoun County, which is close to a lot of jobs in the Dulles Corridor and Tysons Corner, definitely held up better than Prince William County which is much farther than most major job centers. Even in PW though, I believe that the Haymarket/Gainesville/Bristow area is holding up relatively well.
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Old 09-17-2010, 11:09 AM
 
Location: Expatriate Philadelphian in Northern Virginia
7,788 posts, read 12,020,797 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Caladium View Post
It seems like this thread has drifted away from being about northern Virginia. Maybe this would be a good discussion on the DC forum, or the Urban Planning forum.
I'm doing my best to keep this thread relevant to NOVA. I would encourage others to do the same.
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Old 09-17-2010, 12:17 PM
 
Location: Home is where the heart is
15,400 posts, read 18,101,957 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Tone509 View Post
Loudoun County, which is close to a lot of jobs in the Dulles Corridor and Tysons Corner, definitely held up better than Prince William County which is much farther than most major job centers. Even in PW though, I believe that the Haymarket/Gainesville/Bristow area is holding up relatively well.
LOL, Tone that's what I was going to say, then I saw you beat me to it! There are some parts of PW that are struggling, but there plenty of communities in PW county that are doing quite well. Plus, Prince William County is hardly representative of the entire suburban region that makes up northern Virginia.

The same can be said for the DC area as a whole. You can find neighborhoods in DC that have foreclosures, as well as some properties that have lost their value, but that doesn't mean DC has "collapsing prices."
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Old 09-17-2010, 01:00 PM
 
Location: Everywhere and Nowhere
14,141 posts, read 16,516,079 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Caladium View Post
Where will the people who live there now go?
SE DC or PG County where they've been going the past few years.
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Old 09-17-2010, 01:05 PM
 
Location: among the clustered spires
2,289 posts, read 2,146,172 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by CAVA1990 View Post
SE DC or PG County where they've been going the past few years.
Ward Nine baby.
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Old 09-17-2010, 01:38 PM
 
Location: You want kimchi with that?
8,479 posts, read 6,185,761 times
Reputation: 2189
"LOL, Tone that's what I was going to say, then I saw you beat me to it! There are some parts of PW that are struggling, but there plenty of communities in PW county that are doing quite well. Plus, Prince William County is hardly representative of the entire suburban region that makes up northern Virginia.

The same can be said for the DC area as a whole. You can find neighborhoods in DC that have foreclosures, as well as some properties that have lost their value, but that doesn't mean DC has "collapsing prices.""

Oh cmon guys. I said collapsed, not collapsing. Prices have stabilized or upticked (esp in PWC, as a matter of fact)

But there were very substantial, rapid price declines in many suburban areas - in PWC, and also in most of the more moderately priced parts of FFX - certainly in annandale, springfield, burke, centerville, etc, etc. My point was, that back in 2009 I saw people expecting similar declines in the "yuppie frontier" sections of DC, and AFAIK, those did declines did not take place. You can argue whether 25 and 50% declines in prices off peak constituted collapse or not. I dont find such semantics fruitful.
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