If 'urban pioneers' succeed in DC, would half of NOVA pour in? (Tysons Corner: foreclosure, house)

[normie]

Originally Posted by Tone509

Iassuming DC schools and neighborhoods would improve dramatically with the involvement of yuppie/hipster families

LOL, that's quite an assumption. I hope it happens, but that school system is in a real hole and in hard economic times like this I don't see dramatic improvement happening for many years, at best. This neighborhood could appeal to people without kids, though.

[FindingZen]

Originally Posted by normie

LOL, that's quite an assumption. I hope it happens, but that school system is in a real hole and in hard economic times like this I don't see dramatic improvement happening for many years, at best. This neighborhood could appeal to people without kids, though.

True, it would probably take sometime even without our current economic conditions. IMO once things get back to "normal", it could happen in as little as ten years. As mentioned before, there are DC neighborhoods, mostly surrounding Metro stations, where the change is well underway. However, I'll admit to not being aware what percentage of those newer residents are former Northern Virginians.

[brooklynborndad]

I think there is nothing in particular that makes it impossible for all of the District to gentrify. whats happened in the areas just east of RCP could happen further east - that has been the dynamic for over 20 years. If nonrepresentation and taxes are tolerable on Wisconsin ave, they can be tolerated on georgia avenue. Crime will decrease in the transitional areas as the frontier moves further east.

And given the size of the District, and that they will NOT allow massive skyscrapers, there are quite enough people who do want denser, walkable lifestyles, to fill out the district. At most the pop of the district will be 1 million or so, well under a quarter of the pop of the metro area. Leaving aside that DC has lots of houses with yards.

[brooklynborndad]

"This neighborhood could appeal to people without kids, though."

Or people sending their kids to private (includingr Catholic or Jewish day)schools anyway. Or homeschoolers.

[Caladium]

Originally Posted by CAVA1990

Right near Union Station along the H Street corridor you can almost see it happening in time lapsed photography. They're building a street car along there and the whole area along there is changing rather quickly. For example, Taylor Gourmet has opened on a formerly fairly run down block serving the best Philly style sandwiches in the city. I expect that whole area will soon be overrun with the types of folks Tone listed in his steps of gentrification. I'm guessing a lot of the former residents are being priced out and have headed to PG County. Sort of a 21st Century version of "urban renewal".

It's interesting to have something like this unfold before our eyes, so we can see how it goes. I'm not willing to try it myself, but I enjoy watching others undertake projects like this. I'm hesitant to make predictions as far as how it will succeed. Some projects like this go well, but I've seen urban gentrification go sour in Los Angeles. I knew someone who moved into a downtown loft and later regret it. I also know some people who bought a house in a seedy part of Long Beach that was supposedly "up and coming" and the neighborhood never improved.

Of course, DC is a slightly different situation, since this it has more residents than downtown LA and more people flowing in for jobs who need housing. And timing is important, too. Maybe this DC neighborhood will fare better since this is happening towards the end of a recession rather than before it (so it will be less likely to be plagued by foreclosures and people abandoning homes because they couldn't resell and they didn't enjoy living there as much as they thought they might).

[brooklynborndad]

IIRC in the early stages of the bubble collapse there were folks saying that the "frontier" along columbia Heights/Shaw would move back westward, that prices there would collapse like in the suburbs. Didnt happen, AFAIK. OTOH downtown developments in So Cal (san diego as well as LA) had problems, IIUC. I am not sure the full dynamics of the difference.

[Caladium]

Originally Posted by brooklynborndad

I think there is nothing in particular that makes it impossible for all of the District to gentrify.

Where will the people who live there now go?

[Caladium]

Originally Posted by brooklynborndad

that prices there would collapse like in the suburbs.

FWIW, prices didn't collapse in the suburbs either. At least not in my neck of the woods.

[brooklynborndad]

Some will move elsewhere anyway. Non gentrifying cities do not always have the same people living there from generation to generation. People get jobs, move, etc.

In general though, working class african americans will move to PG, Charles County Md, etc. Lower middle class african americans (both those already LMC who sell their homes, and working class ones moving on up) will move further out in MD than working class ones. Hispanics will continue to move to VA as well as MD. Post bubble, theres lots of relatively cheap housing in the further suburbs, though transportation costs will be higher for those working in the District (at some point wages for unskilled labor in the district will have to raise to equilibrate). How traumatic this is for current residents will depend on whether they are owners or renters, and what their employment situation is.

[brooklynborndad]

Originally Posted by Caladium

FWIW, prices didn't collapse in the suburbs either. At least not in my neck of the woods.

"like in those bubbly suburbs where prices collapsed, like Prince William County"