When will home values go up again?

[checking out]

Sometime in the next century. Or two. Maybe three. Certainly no more than four.

[Margery]

Originally Posted by redskindad12

Ichoro is correct. You can buy about anything in nova and immediately make a profit. I don't expect that to last long as the population growth continues to increase. I live in the 20165 area code in Loudoun. Things really turned around here the past 6 months. Last I checked, our inventory was at a 1.9 month supply. Prices have been moving up over that time. There isn't anything nice for sale anymore - and homes around here are going in less than a week. There were some great foreclosure deals available if you had the patience, and there are still some out there here and there, but with incomes as high as they are here and unemplyment at 5% this market looks so good to anybody with a brain. I moved here 5 years ago, and the county I moved from, like alot of the U.S. is experiencing 11% + unemplyment. As long as we continue to have lower unemployment, higher salaries, and a better education system than anywhere in the U.S. - people will continue to move here from all over and prices will most certainly increase.

Here is the link from the multiple listing service to get information about sales, new listings, inventory, etc. You can even check by zip code. MRIS Statistics The market is getting better, prices are stabilizing. Redskindad is right, we are still low on fair market sales but 20165 has not been hit as hard with short sales or foreclosures as 2 nearby zips have been.

[redskindad12]

So true. The short sales and foreclosures were flooding the surrounding areas. I honestly believe that the real estate in those nearby zips were never worth close to what they were bid up to during the boom and were mostly being bought by flippers who had no intention on living in those places. From everything I have read, people are starting to flip homes in those zip codes again. I have seen homes in my own zip that have been purchased in foreclosure and have already been flipped. If people are able to do this at this point in time, it tells me that on the way down from the bubble - all the real estate was being and has been undervalued.

[lchoro]

Foreclosures are being held back by banks. Most of what they can't or won't sell won't show up in MRIS. The hidden inventory is still growing because the government is paying banks to delay foreclosures to keep them from swamping the market. They're also modifying mortgages in default to keep them off the market. 70% of those homes go back into re-default.

Sales prices are still too high in most places. Median prices in Manassas had fallen as far as 115-125K which would make most homes profitable as rentals. Manassas townhomes commonly rent for around 1200-1600.

[redskindad12]

Foreclosures are being held back by banks which is the right thing to do. Modifying mortgages is the right thing to do as well - in most cases. I believe the reason we are seeing the national re-default rate so high, is simply due to the rising unemployment - even if you were to cut a mortgage in half, if someone were to lose their job 3 months later - it won't help. I think we will continue to see short sales and foreclosures in nova to show up in years to come, but nothing like what has passed us by. It used to make financial sense to rent, but I think there are alot of renters who realize that we are past bottom and that if they wait on the sideline much longer it could end up costing them in the long run. Again, if we were in an area of high unemployment and a decreasing population which much of the country is experiencing - then I would put off buying. Not to mention - because we are actually hanging in fairly well in nova, banks aren't asking for the 20-40% down payments that some counties and states are having to deal with, which will keep us ahead of the game. And I think they are correct in this matter. As if I were handling a loan today, I would much quicker approve a 500k property here than I would a 300k property in Florida, Nevada, and so on. Just on the economics alone.

[spidercharm]

Time will tell...I don't buy we are at a bottom...not even close.

Let this funny government intervention of tax credits, stimulus & foreclosure ban end. NoVA is actually becoming one of the most overvalued market in the country, now that AZ, FL & CA is getting much needed dose of reality.

Originally Posted by redskindad12

Foreclosures are being held back by banks which is the right thing to do. Modifying mortgages is the right thing to do as well - in most cases. I believe the reason we are seeing the national re-default rate so high, is simply due to the rising unemployment - even if you were to cut a mortgage in half, if someone were to lose their job 3 months later - it won't help. I think we will continue to see short sales and foreclosures in nova to show up in years to come, but nothing like what has passed us by. It used to make financial sense to rent, but I think there are alot of renters who realize that we are past bottom and that if they wait on the sideline much longer it could end up costing them in the long run. Again, if we were in an area of high unemployment and a decreasing population which much of the country is experiencing - then I would put off buying. Not to mention - because we are actually hanging in fairly well in nova, banks aren't asking for the 20-40% down payments that some counties and states are having to deal with, which will keep us ahead of the game. And I think they are correct in this matter. As if I were handling a loan today, I would much quicker approve a 500k property here than I would a 300k property in Florida, Nevada, and so on. Just on the economics alone.