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Old 06-06-2012, 10:04 AM
 
63 posts, read 145,319 times
Reputation: 57

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Well first of all, I said it would be at least a transient ding on the local economy. By local, I was referring conservatively to the area near the headquarters building, but if you want to interpret it as all of Fairfax, Loudon, and Prince William counties, then fine.

From a general economy perspective, I think you'd be hard pressed to find any pragmatic, non-idealistic person (apparently not yourself) saying it's a good thing that 2600 high-paying, private sector professional jobs are leaving the area. You're talking about economic diversity? How is losing one of the few non-consulting, non-government employers in the area good for economic diversity?

From a real estate perspective, let's estimate that those 2600 people own 1000 (which I think is conservative) homes in the 300K - 1M price range in your "local" area. That's still a huge new set of inventory on the market. Currently, there's 1800 homes total on the market in the 300K - 1M price range in ALL of Fairfax County. A 60-75% sudden increase in supply will certainly have at least have an appreciable transient impact.

Also:
http://www.usatoday.com/money/compan...-graphic_N.htm

Last edited by Cluckr7; 06-06-2012 at 10:20 AM..
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Old 06-06-2012, 10:20 AM
 
Location: Tysons Corner
2,772 posts, read 3,651,110 times
Reputation: 1495
Yea because those homes stay on the market all of 25 days, except for a select few over priced "toe in pool pricing" homes. Real Estate wise, definitely no ding, even in the dunn loring area.

Job wise, we have 2 years to find a new partner, seeing as the past 5 months we have picked up 5 new corporate partners, 1 of which is on the verge of becoming the next fortune 500 in NOVA in KapscheTrafficCom

Fairfax County Economic Development Authority boasts 9K new jobs - Washington Business Journal
WBJ article shows that companies are expanding, Bechtel is coming, others will follow

More importantly we are in a competition against MD to get Sodexo, very fastly growing company, which would diversify our economy far better than having an out of place oil company using Dunn Loring as a stepping stone for lobbying. Kaiser is increasing its footprint in the eastern fairfax region, that could be a good spot for them in addition to their new Tysons location.

Any jobs that leave the area suck and all, but as far as scale, this one is not that bad, and not that sudden (atleast Exxon was nice enough to give advanced notice). We should be able to bounce right back from it. When Eli Lilly didnt come to PWC, now THAT was bad, job losses in the thousands from what the area expected and a property that still has a shell of the facility.
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Old 06-06-2012, 10:35 AM
 
882 posts, read 1,780,042 times
Reputation: 592
Don't know where you get your data (25 d/mkt), but if that's the quality of "engineer", well...

It's going to have a huge impact on housing prices/time spent on market, and a ripple effect across central Fairfax County - XOM employees are generally very well paid with spending to match.

Your biases are blinding you - do you really belive that an arm of a German corp. & a "maybe" Marriott services partner are a decent replacement for the "evil" and "out of place oil company"?
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Old 06-06-2012, 10:51 AM
 
Location: Tysons Corner
2,772 posts, read 3,651,110 times
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Dude, that building hasn't been filled since it was Mobile, we are talking about a couple thousand employees, its not like Exxon Mobile itself is leaving, just a tiny portion of what Exxon Mobile does. And because they only used it as a corporate branch, and the corporate taxes were actually going to Texas, its not a huge loss as far as losing their corporate presence either.

I said it will hurt, but with 2 years we should be able to make up for the 2600 employees that are leaving. Its not the end of the world like its being portrayed as. Yes they are paid well, so what, alot of people around here are, its not like we are a factory town.

Am I biased against an oil company? Sure. Do I want a bunch of Texas transplants who would rather live in Houston than the nations capital complaining all the time around here? No Get the hell out, and dont look back you filthy cowboy wanna bes.

1000 homes on the market? Many of those people complained about the cost of living around here(why they chose to leave evidently), I bet a lot of them were renters anyways.
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Old 06-06-2012, 11:06 AM
 
63 posts, read 145,319 times
Reputation: 57
Quote:
I said it will hurt, but with 2 years we should be able to make up for the 2600 employees that are leaving. Its not the end of the world like its being portrayed as.
I believe I said I thought it would be "appreciable" and "transient", so agreed.

Quote:
1000 homes on the market? Many of those people complained about the cost of living around here(why they chose to leave evidently), I bet a lot of them were renters anyways.
So you think that less than 40% of the 2600 well-paid employees purchased a home?
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Old 06-06-2012, 11:12 AM
 
Location: Tysons Corner
2,772 posts, read 3,651,110 times
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Based on City-Data information, 29% of residents in FFX rent, seeing as the reasoning behind their moving is that it was unaffordable here, and that many of those people, being in corporate positions that have to return to Texas quite frequently, would likely have homes in Texas then I think that its not a stretch to think that somewhere around half likely didnt own here. 60% might be a stretch, but who knows.
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Old 06-06-2012, 11:19 AM
 
63 posts, read 145,319 times
Reputation: 57
I guess that's possible. I don't think the company is moving because of cost of living; more because it makes logistical sense to have their central engineering, projects, and logistics branches closer to their manufacturing facilities. But my guess is as good as yours as far as numbers.

Anyway, I agree it's not the end of the world for FFX County. I'm just saying the local economy (the immediately local area) will definitely notice when it happens, at least for a while.

Last edited by Cluckr7; 06-06-2012 at 11:35 AM..
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Old 06-06-2012, 11:28 AM
 
Location: Tysons Corner
2,772 posts, read 3,651,110 times
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Yea, and my response wasn't directly contradicting your original post, mostly the posts that said this is a "catastrophic" issue for the region that would ripple yada yada yada.

We need to find some new industries in this region, that I have always been for

A Concept For Industry and Fairfax | The Tysons Corner

My story from 4 months ago. We are dangerously leveraged to 1 industry. I just dont think having corporate housing for a big shady oil company helps us diversify. We need an industry that can grow jobs in this region, biotech is our best lead right now, with health care being 2nd (beyond the obvious IT/Construction fields which are the predominant industries right now of course)

I also wouldn't mind seeing some manufacturing presence, like an Eli Lilly, coming to Mason Neck, but Im sure the environmentalist hear industry and chesapeake and think automatically to shut it down without allowing new technology to be used to reduce pollution
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Old 06-06-2012, 11:42 AM
 
882 posts, read 1,780,042 times
Reputation: 592
Quote:
Originally Posted by tysonsengineer View Post
Dude, that building hasn't been filled since it was Mobile, we are talking about a couple thousand employees, its not like Exxon Mobile itself is leaving, just a tiny portion of what Exxon Mobile does. And because they only used it as a corporate branch, and the corporate taxes were actually going to Texas, its not a huge loss as far as losing their corporate presence either.

I said it will hurt, but with 2 years we should be able to make up for the 2600 employees that are leaving. Its not the end of the world like its being portrayed as. Yes they are paid well, so what, alot of people around here are, its not like we are a factory town.

Am I biased against an oil company? Sure. Do I want a bunch of Texas transplants who would rather live in Houston than the nations capital complaining all the time around here? No Get the hell out, and dont look back you filthy cowboy wanna bes.

1000 homes on the market? Many of those people complained about the cost of living around here(why they chose to leave evidently), I bet a lot of them were renters anyways.
"Dude" - there were only two towers when Mobil moved here from NYC. But as an "engineer" you knew that, right?
You're biased - and incorrect. The largest % of XOM employees here are legacy Mobil - not "Texas Transplants" (news flash - most in the DC area are "transplants") nor "filthy cowboys".

If indeed real estate values decrease, who's going to pay for/move into the upcoming Tysons clusterfark?
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Old 06-06-2012, 12:42 PM
 
5,071 posts, read 8,636,362 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Jayess1 View Post
"Dude" - there were only two towers when Mobil moved here from NYC. But as an "engineer" you knew that, right?
You're biased - and incorrect. The largest % of XOM employees here are legacy Mobil - not "Texas Transplants" (news flash - most in the DC area are "transplants") nor "filthy cowboys".

If indeed real estate values decrease, who's going to pay for/move into the upcoming Tysons clusterfark?
On this topic, your posts sound more biased than those of the always-opinionated TE.

If indeed real estate values decrease, that will enable people to move into the Tysons area - which already has some of the nicest residential neighborhoods, best schools and top shopping in the DC region and soon will also have Metro access - who previously might not have been able to afford it.

Personally, I'm sorry to see Exxon-Mobil leave (it was a big deal for the region when Mobil first relocated here, although people have been expecting the remaining employees to return to the mother ship for years), but we'll survive.
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