U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Go Back   City-Data Forum > U.S. Forums > Virginia > Northern Virginia
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
View detailed profile (Advanced) or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 04-11-2012, 06:54 PM
 
Location: Tysons Corner
2,772 posts, read 3,635,605 times
Reputation: 1495

Advertisements

3000 new residents in Tysons cough cough (thats not a small contribution last 2 years) of which I am one. My community alone has grown 1100 residents.

Sorry denton but your facts, not shockingly for an opposer of public transit and proponent of more freeway projects which create more Atlanta and LA model planning, are just wrong. The fact is people are shifting back towards cities, its generational, its economical, its more efficient. And one of the reasons for that IS the presence of transportation alternatives. Beyond this, the big money, the developers invest in these corridors. Do they make money? YES! Are we CHINA all of a sudden? Most of those opposed to metro use this "developers will make too much money mindset" even though they are strict GOPers.

Developers who invest early (btw footing almost all of the bill in fairfax county... loudoun might want to take note of how you do a public private partnership to reduce public cost) DESERVE to make a profit in the future. Not to mention that profit they make comes right back to the community in taxes. The reason why vienna and springfield franconia have turned out the way they have is more an issue of LAND USE by our county officials, and the short sighted nature of favoring subdivision style expansion instead of restrained growth districts. It is not because of some sort of artificial metro depreciation. Everywhere else in the world transit corridors are where the expensive places are. In Paris, in London, in New York, and yes even in Fairfax if the county opened up their minds in those 2 spots to better development.

Heres one thing you should analyze. Instead of saying, oh no this is too much cost, lets not do this. Have you looked at the Fairfax model? 900 million dollars of the project is being funded by Fairfax, of which only 150 to 200 million are actually public funds. Thats about 15-20 percent and is equivalent to a new school opening up and unlike schools has the potential of returning tens of millions in tax revenue, paying for itself in less than a decade. The remainder 700 million is being paid for by special tax districts, by the much demonized land developers. Why are they doing this? Because it means they are allowed to build the kind of stuff that they would have been building for the past 20 years in this region if backward ass land use policies werent in place. The economics have always been there. Does that mean they are building it in front of your house? No because they are in special districts, they are allowed to build vertical instead of continue to invade rural and suburban regions.

If Loudoun followed this model, they would end up with something closer to 20 or 30 million dollars in public funds, something that is equivalent to the cost of simply repaving Waxpool every 5 to 10 years. Not widen, not add a new road, just to repave it.

PS if you think the line is only saving you a 2.8 mile drive, guess again, there will be NO parking at Dulles, this is assured by the airport authority, and the floris station (sorry I should say PARKING GARAGE, the station will be there due to the interest from the new developer at innovation which is the new commercial high rise development, but the parking lot will likely become fully controlled by the developer in this condition). will likely disappear to save cost for Fairfax County. Therefore you will have to drive all the way to Herndon Monroe down that toll road. You are just leveraging your future more to oil and toll rates... things that last I checked are always assured to increase faster than the cost to operate metro rail.

Not a sermon just a thought
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 04-11-2012, 08:44 PM
 
Location: Polish Hill, Pittsburgh, PA
30,075 posts, read 67,129,749 times
Reputation: 15726
Quote:
Originally Posted by tysonsengineer View Post
The fact is people are shifting back towards cities, its generational, its economical, its more efficient. And one of the reasons for that IS the presence of transportation alternatives.
Smart. Smart. Smart. Smart. Smart. Enough said.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-12-2012, 04:26 AM
 
Location: Metro Washington DC
13,016 posts, read 19,818,861 times
Reputation: 7618
Quote:
Originally Posted by tysonsengineer View Post
The fact is people are shifting back towards cities, its generational, its economical, its more efficient. And one of the reasons for that IS the presence of transportation alternatives.
So, you want the Silver Line to be built to stop people from shifting back to the city?
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-12-2012, 05:06 AM
 
Location: Virginia
18,717 posts, read 26,801,402 times
Reputation: 42860
Quote:
Originally Posted by tysonsengineer View Post
The fact is people are shifting back towards cities, its generational, its economical, its more efficient.
In some ways it might be more efficient. In others, not as much. Don't agree with the arguement that it's more economical, or that it's "a fact," especially in this metro area. Moving back to the cities does indeed seem to be a generational thing, but remember, the span of a generation is short.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-12-2012, 06:37 AM
 
Location: among the clustered spires
2,380 posts, read 3,855,554 times
Reputation: 869
Just doing some back of the envelope calculations. For purposes here, I'll count 15% of Moco/PG in 1990, 20% of Moco/PG in 2000, and 25% of Moco/PG in 2010 as "the city" and the rest of those as "the suburbs." I won't even count Howard, Fauquier, Stafford, and Anne Arundel in my calculations.

Of course, this doesn't factor in people who move to downtown Frederick/Fredericksburg/Leesburg for what I'd call an "urban lite" experience, or 50% of the fun, 30% of the price, and higher-achieving schools. I'll freely and completely admit to being part of this group myself.

"The City"
Washington DC 606,900/572,059/601,723
Arlington 170,936/189,453/207,627
Alexandria 111,183/128,283/139,966
Montgomery 113,554/174,668/242,944
Prince George's 109,390/160,303/215,855
Totals 1,111,963/1,224,766/1,408,115

"The suburbs"
Fairfax 818,584/969,749/1,081,726
Loudoun 86,129/169,599/312,311
Prince William 215,686/280,813/402,002
Frederick (MD) 150,208/195,277/233,385
Montgomery 643,472/698,672/728,832
Prince George's 619,876/641,212/647,565
Totals 2,533,955/2,955,322/3,405,821

City Totals 1,111,963/1,224,766/1,408,115 (10.1% growth 90-00, 15.0% growth 00-10)
Suburb Totals 2,533,955/2,955,322/3,405,821 (16.6% growth 90-00, 15.2% growth 00-10)
Grand Totals 3,645,916/4,180,088/4,813,936 (30.5% city '90, 29.3% city '00, 29.3% city '10)

Now I'm not going to factor in development trends like the Villages at Leesburg and Brambleton, which are certainly more urban than, say, Ashburn Farm. (I don't know enough about what's going up in western Prince William to comment.) In addition, there are areas inside the Beltway built out between the 1940s and 1970s that are more suburban than city.

But looking at these numbers, declaring the death of suburbs is premature at best. The cities are at a point where they can decide to remain the domain of the young and hip, endlessly producing future suburbanites, or to be a place where families can stay for a lifetime. Both are viable options.

But, right now, the option of staying in Arlington, Alexandria, or DC with 2 kids is only available to the most wealthy or to those content with a 800-1000 square foot condo.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-12-2012, 07:12 AM
 
Location: The Port City is rising.
8,746 posts, read 10,658,166 times
Reputation: 2479
Quote:
Originally Posted by Caladium View Post
In some ways it might be more efficient. In others, not as much. Don't agree with the arguement that it's more economical, or that it's "a fact," especially in this metro area. Moving back to the cities does indeed seem to be a generational thing, but remember, the span of a generation is short.
The argument about the efficiency of the higher density, less auto oriented living (which does NOT always map to "city vs suburbs" there are auto focused people in upper NW and michigan park in DC, and there are car free and car lite folks in the suburbs, esp those with traditional centers) is better made in the urban planning forum than here.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-12-2012, 07:19 AM
 
Location: Washington, DC
2,818 posts, read 1,418,150 times
Reputation: 2212
I'm on agreement about the money for roadways part. You're going to spend essentially millions just to REPAVE a road every few years. Whereas, if you build a Metro, the WMATA are the ones doing their own repair work, not using any funds from Loudoun. That's why, in the long run, it's a win-win situation.

Do I agree with the high costs of the project? No. It's high for no reason. But, think long term, not about tomorrow.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-12-2012, 07:21 AM
 
Location: The Port City is rising.
8,746 posts, read 10,658,166 times
Reputation: 2479
Quote:
Originally Posted by stpickrell View Post
Now I'm not going to factor in development trends like the Villages at Leesburg and Brambleton, which are certainly more urban than, say, Ashburn Farm. (I don't know enough about what's going up in western Prince William to comment.) In addition, there are areas inside the Beltway built out between the 1940s and 1970s that are more suburban than city.

But looking at these numbers, declaring the death of suburbs is premature at best.
Its certainly true, as Jeb has pointed out, that in this region the shift to urbanism has meant that the inner jurisdictions and esp DC have stopped their decline and are sharing in growth. It has not meant actual decline in the suburbs - those with vacant land, AND with a favorable employment housing balance, of which Loudoun stands out, have done quite well and are growing rapidly.

I would note that using the decennial census masks things a bit - while the cultural changes have been building for a while, and their has been upward swing in DC since the early 90s or so, the really dramatic relative shifts in the RE markets have taken place since the RE bubble and the gas price increases in 2006.

I would also note that using county jurisdictions masks things as well. In DC for example, it seems to me that the more auto centric lower density areas are stable or declining - the most rapid growth that is driving the DC growth numbers is in the area from Rock Creek to the Anacostia, from Columbia Heights south. The densest parts, getting denser.

Similar phenomena are at work in Alexandria, and of course in Arlington. MoCo still has suburban style growth in Clarksville I guess, but its most dynamic areas now are Bethesda and Silver Spring. Meanwhile PG, which has not leveraged its metro stops like MoCo has, and remains about the most auto focused inner suburb, flounders.

Fairfax is now destined, I think, to see almost all its growth in TOD area.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-12-2012, 07:30 AM
 
Location: The Port City is rising.
8,746 posts, read 10,658,166 times
Reputation: 2479
Quote:
Originally Posted by Caladium View Post
Moving back to the cities does indeed seem to be a generational thing, but remember, the span of a generation is short.

Hmmm. I don't know. The shift to auto oriented suburbs began hesitantly in the 1920s, was delayed by depression and war, and went ahead full throttle from 1945 to the 1980s, and as posters here have pointed out, has established itself as an irreversible phenomenon, even if it may not be as universal a desire as it seemed a few decades ago.

Similarly, the questioning of auto oriented suburbia began among counter culture circles in the 1960s (some following on the earlier work of Jane Jacobs), was actualized by early urban pioneers in the 1970s and 1980s, and received a more professional, more thought out, and, I think, more moderate and more balanced, conceptualization by the new urbanists in the 1990s (esp Duany and Plater-Zyberk). It has come together much more both in realization on the ground, in cities, inner suburbs, and better designed communities elsewhere as well, esp since 2006.

Will it ebb from its current level of growth? Sure. Will the phenomenon disappear? No more so than the phenomena of commuter freeways, 2 car garages, quarter acre lots, and even shopping malls have disappeared.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 04-12-2012, 07:31 AM
 
Location: The Port City is rising.
8,746 posts, read 10,658,166 times
Reputation: 2479
another take on the silver line financing issue

Richmond’s Dulles rail roadblocks - All Opinions Are Local - The Washington Post
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:


Options
X
Data:
Loading data...
Based on 2000-2016 data
Loading data...

123
Hide US histogram

Over $104,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > U.S. Forums > Virginia > Northern Virginia
Follow City-Data.com founder on our Forum or

All times are GMT -6.

2005-2019, Advameg, Inc. | Please obey Forum Rules | Terms of Use and Privacy Policy

City-Data.com - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25, 26, 27, 28, 29, 30, 31, 32, 33, 34, 35 - Top