Poll: Silver Line Not Important to Most N. Virginians (bus, rail)

[sonnymarkjiz]

Yeah I don't see the orange line going further any more than it is... Unless tons of businesses suddenly pop up along 66 into manassas. Same with the blue line to Woodbridge. Everyone down there wants it to happen, but there's nothing going on in Woodbridge economically that the state would bother caring.

[Shelborne_22033]

I'm not very interested in the Silver Line out to IAD, I won't be using it. I'm more interested in extending the Orange Line out to Centreville Park and Ride or even to Manassas with stops at 123, NRA, Fairfax Corner/Mall & Centreville. Then readjust all of the bus lines to feed into the new stations and make two lanes of Rt 66 HOV-3 during rush hours. This may happen after I retire in 2027.

The region will see Silver Line benefits in 10+ years. It is very unreasonable to assume the current generation will abandon their vehicles despite the traffic.

[stpickrell]

The only thing I could potentially see is an extension to Fort Belvoir as a result of BRAC, the Feds may be interested there.

[tysonsengineer]

Originally Posted by Shelborne_22033

I'm not very interested in the Silver Line out to IAD, I won't be using it. I'm more interested in extending the Orange Line out to Centreville Park and Ride or even to Manassas with stops at 123, NRA, Fairfax Corner/Mall & Centreville. Then readjust all of the bus lines to feed into the new stations and make two lanes of Rt 66 HOV-3 during rush hours. This may happen after I retire in 2027.

The region will see Silver Line benefits in 10+ years. It is very unreasonable to assume the current generation will abandon their vehicles despite the traffic.

Tysons is actually building already in advance of it being done. But thats fine, just another misconception about the silver line and the role of mass transit.

If orange line were extended, it would need to be completely funded by the public, 100%. Silver line was only funded 20% by public funds (non-federal). As difficult as it was to wrestle away 300 million dollars, imagine what it would be like to get 3 billion dollars from the tax coffers.

That is why we will never see another metro extension in Virginia without a public private cooperative. That I can promise you.

PS tax revenue from Tysons Corner is already up (well over 10 million dollars) since silver line was announced.

[saganista]

Originally Posted by tysonsengineer

For all intensive purposes...

FYI, this should have been "For all intents and purposes". The alternative is a malapropism typically committed by people who have learned the term from hearing it rather than from reading it.

Originally Posted by tysonsengineer

...by $ I would say that it is a 50/50 chance that Arlington could actually usurp DC as the more powerful economic center over the next 50 years.

I would say the chance of that occurring in Arlington is no greater than that it does in Alexandria, Bethesda, Silver Spring, or Oxon Hill. Which is to say that the chance is just about zero.

Originally Posted by tysonsengineer

What could change that is the gradual change in policy in DC which is actually allowing some height restriction creep in certain neighborhoods. If this happens, then I agree, most investment would first go there, second to Arlington/Bethesda, and third to suburbs.

Manhattan On The Potomac? Let's talk once there's no place left to build within the height restrictions as they are. What with those being one of the chief characteristics that defines the city as what it is and all.

[tysonsengineer]

Saganista

Thanks for the grammar correct

Second, the height restrictions are the REASON why you dont see real redevelopment. Its economics.

If you have a building which is 6 stories tall, worth 40 million, on 25 million of land making you close to 1 million a year, and has been there for a while then it takes more than an allotment to construct it up to 12 stories tall.

You would have to tear down a 65 million dollar project which has been paid off and is making you money to put up a 200 million dollar project where you go without revenue for 2 to 3 years, just to make 2 million a year.

Thats the problem with height restrictions, it will take hundreds of years with those economics in place for the city to actually hit its height restrictions ie Paris central city. All the while the real construction is happening on the other side of the river where the land is cheaper, the buildings in place don't produce or cost that much, and height restrictions are looser and only a decade away from being removed all together. So while DC is still growing, its not growing at the same rate as Arlington, Alexandria, or Tysons.

The reason why Arlington is more likely to become a true highrise district is because there are already more jobs there than in Tysons and Alexandria combined. At the end of the day the number one attractant to a region is jobs, jobs, and more jobs. Those jobs also mean massive investment from outside developers in creating mixed use because they know that the balance is healthy. That mixed use in itself creates jobs because when a building with 2000 occupants is built with retail space at the bottom it creates an inherent customer base that is in far excess than any new retail only location. If you don't believe me come check out the Harris Teeter downstairs from me.

At 8 am, its packed full of people getting their coffee, at noon its packed with people from the offices next door (Freddie Mac, construction crews, Redhat, etc), at 5 its packed with people getting dinner and groceries for their trip home, and at 7 its packed with actual residents upstairs getting their dinners. That is the power of mixed use, something that Arlington has been incorporating for nearly 2 decades, which is why Arlington is still miles ahead of the rest of the region and again has the ability to beat out DC in this generation given the current path.

[brooklynborndad]

Originally Posted by metclubin

On another note, it there any plan from the Fairfax County to extend the Orange line at least until Fai Oaks Mall area a.k.a. Exit 57 on I-66. It will be so convinient for people in Fairfax, Chantilly, Centerville and Manassas. That will reduce a lot of traffic on I-66 between Exit 57 and 64.

most of the talk Ive seen envisions a termination at Centreville. I was just thinking the other day, would a termination at Fair Oaks make more sense? Shorter line, less $$ and Fair Oaks area is already closer to the TOD model than Centreville is. But I suspect the problem would be the nature of a terminal station - lots of parking garages, lots of traffic in and out (for park and ride). I think that Fair Oaks is not the best location for that, and Centreville is better. Note, another advantage of extending to Centreville, would be relieving some of the need for parking at Vienna metro, which would allow more intense TOD on the existing WMATA property at Vienna metro.

Im not as pessimisitic about this happening someday as TE is - the desire for relief on I66 being so great. In addition to the cost of the extension itself though, is the issue of capacity at the core. While this would not be a new line, presumably the increase in ridership would mean more frequent orange line trains would be needed - my understanding is that with the full silver line build, we will be close to capacity on the river crossings, even with the benefits of Rush+. That means we are staring at the prospect of a new river crossing and accompanying new line across central DC, probably for a whopping total price tag of at least $10 billion. While Va (or NoVa, or whatever) will be on the hook only to contribute toward the crossing itself, that will still be quite costly.

RE Manassas, I wonder how much can be done with simply improved VRE service? IIUC VRPT (the commonwealths dept for rail and transit) is floating the idea of a VRE extension to Haymarket.

[brooklynborndad]

TE

Arlinton may very well beat Tysons as the biggest center in NoVa. But DC still has many advantages, including not only the major federal locations Saganista mentions, but a transportation confluence unrivaled in the region. Its at the center of the metro system including lines to MoCo and PG. Its the central location for various commuter bus runs. Its got the major intercity rail station (Amtrak doesnt even stop at Crystal City)

Arlingtons one commuter rail station, at Crystal City, is 4 metro stops away from Rosslyn, which is Arlingtons densest commercial location, and will be its most completely served metro station.

At a very minimum Arlington will need run through MARC service to Crystal City, and probably an Amtrak stop at Crystal City.

And do not forget, there are plenty of things DC can do. whether they change the height limit or not, there are places where they can add new office space, including NoMa, Capital Riverfront, etc.

[saganista]

Originally Posted by tysonsengineer

Thanks for the grammar correct

Meant for the board at large. Just don't start talking about the "tenants" of your philosophy.

[saganista]

Originally Posted by tysonsengineer

Second, the height restrictions are the REASON why you dont see real redevelopment. Its economics.

But I see "real redevelopment" all over the place in the District. U Street, Penn Quarter, Columbia Heights, Fort Totten, all of what's now called Capitol Hill South and East, H Street NE, M Street SE, the G'town waterfront. The list goes on and on. Briefly put, there is plenty to keep developers more than busy and investors more than profitable without knocking over any of the height restrictions. If the glass is half full, you don't need a bigger glass yet.

Originally Posted by tysonsengineer

The reason why Arlington is more likely to become a true highrise district is because there are already more jobs there than in Tysons and Alexandria combined. At the end of the day the number one attractant to a region is jobs, jobs, and more jobs.

At the end of 2010, there were an estimated 223,300 jobs within the 26 square miles of Arlington County. That's about 8,600 per square mile. There were 117,000 jobs within the 4.9 square miles of official Tysons Corner. That's nearly 24,000 jobs per square mile. Over the next 30 years, employment at Tysons is projected to grow by about 55%, and in Arlington County by less than 40%. If Arlington wants to keep up, maybe it should bulldoze that cemetery place and put some money-making, job-attracting, mixed-use, high-rise development in there.