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Old 05-15-2012, 10:42 AM
 
Location: You want kimchi with that?
8,479 posts, read 5,458,557 times
Reputation: 2169
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carlingtonian View Post
I don't like urban living, and we don't live in an urban area. Our street is suburban and quiet, and we want to keep it that way. Yes, we could pay less in other areas, but our commutes would be longer. (My wife can drive from her job in DC to our house from in 12 minutes.)

I don't see Annandale crumbling. Nor Mt. Vernon. Nor Loudoun County. Nor rural FFX County.
annandale is borderline - I could show you pockets where the infrastructure is terrible, where there are issues of crime - that it remains as strong as it does is due to the GROWTH in employment at the regions core, and at Tysons. Currently FFX does plan on some densification in the commercial core of Annandale - whether that will succeed, and what happens if it does not, are open questions. (Also Annandale, like Mt Vernon corridor, benefits from the FFX county fiscal situation, which benefits from higher value RE in the north side of the county, and the office density in Tysons and elsewhere - if the southern half of the county had to make it on its own, it would face challenges more similar to PWC's)

As for rural FFX cty, where do you mean? Clifton? Great Falls?

Loudoun of course has been growing rapidly. on vacant land in what HAD been rural areas.

As for Mt Vernon, I will let someone who lives there comment.

As for your area, you've chosen to live, IIUC, about 1/2 to 3/4 miles of a metro station, one of 20 in Northern Virginia (and one of the ones that's closer to DC). Hardly the best place to pick if one hates urban living. Though, despite that, its probably not going to be densified in the next 30 years - you are, IIUC, more than half a mile from the Ballston metro, theres no prospect of an infill metro station between Ballston and EFC, there are no plans or even whispers of plans for light rail or even dedicated bus lanes in that area.
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Old 05-15-2012, 10:46 AM
 
Location: Tysons Corner
2,237 posts, read 1,357,141 times
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Originally Posted by Darkseid View Post
Regardless of which party wins the White House in November, the federal gov't will have pretty deep cuts in spending over the next decade. The only question is how much. That being the case, we can not continue to count on the federal gov't to feed our local economy - particularly in the way it has for the past 3-4 years.

Many defense consulting firms are already panicking over the pending defense spending cuts alone. Less fat consulting contracts -> less consulting firms -> less employees -> a less robust local economy. All of that gets back to my fear of half completed housing developments and empty commercial buildings in Loudoun. The planning done in this area seems to be based on the fact that gov't spending will be massive forever.
Exactly!

We have to diversify. CLT the very fact that you can have a quick commute, is BECAUSE of the city you live in. If it werent for that, they wouldnt be bringing your metro straight to your door. They wouldnt be having bus services well connected. You wouldn't enjoy the safety that you do right now. You wouldnt enjoy any of those things if Arlington was like it was in 1960, that is just plain old empirical truth. You would be sitting dead center of sprawl town. In fact without that, you would be living in a slum right now, as most sprawl method cities actually create a donut effect in which inner portions of the city plummet in worth because they can't support their own population. Not because of density, this is in areas like Watts and Compton in Los Angeles. Southeast DC. These are areas that retained housing only, detached method, not density, not high rises.

They eventually collapse on their own obligations. I'm telling you man, you are just sending the area in the wrong direction if you oppose appropriate density completely away from your house. You should be SUPPORTING these kinds of things, they protect your house. I just, I dunno this is all giving me a bit of anxiety trying to discuss it.

Checking out, head hurts, BBD *tag in*
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Old 05-15-2012, 10:52 AM
 
Location: Taxmanistan
3,797 posts, read 3,304,510 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brooklynborndad View Post
annandale is borderline - I could show you pockets where the infrastructure is terrible, where there are issues of crime - that it remains as strong as it does is due to the GROWTH in employment at the regions core, and at Tysons. Currently FFX does plan on some densification in the commercial core of Annandale - whether that will succeed, and what happens if it does not, are open questions. (Also Annandale, like Mt Vernon corridor, benefits from the FFX county fiscal situation, which benefits from higher value RE in the north side of the county, and the office density in Tysons and elsewhere - if the southern half of the county had to make it on its own, it would face challenges more similar to PWC's)

As for rural FFX cty, where do you mean? Clifton? Great Falls?

Loudoun of course has been growing rapidly. on vacant land in what HAD been rural areas.

As for Mt Vernon, I will let someone who lives there comment.

As for your area, you've chosen to live, IIUC, about 1/2 to 3/4 miles of a metro station, one of 20 in Northern Virginia (and one of the ones that's closer to DC). Hardly the best place to pick if one hates urban living. Though, despite that, its probably not going to be densified in the next 30 years - you are, IIUC, more than half a mile from the Ballston metro, theres no prospect of an infill metro station between Ballston and EFC, there are no plans or even whispers of plans for light rail or even dedicated bus lanes in that area.
Did I say rural FFX? Ok, then maybe I shoulda said "suburban FFX." The point is that the phenomenon of low crime/good schools is not reliably correlated with development/density but, rather, with household income. Granted, I haven't seen all of Annandale, but what I have seen (just outside the Beltway, south of LRT) looked great to me.

We used to live that close to the Metro but now live farther out than that. You're correct that there's no talk of additional transit (that I know of), but additional development has been discussed--e.g., the Wilson Safeway and Westover Village.
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Old 05-15-2012, 10:55 AM
 
Location: You want kimchi with that?
8,479 posts, read 5,458,557 times
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Originally Posted by tysonsengineer View Post
Exactly!

We have to diversify. CLT the very fact that you can have a quick commute, is BECAUSE of the city you live in. If it werent for that, they wouldnt be bringing your metro straight to your door. They wouldnt be having bus services well connected. You wouldn't enjoy the safety that you do right now. You wouldnt enjoy any of those things if Arlington was like it was in 1960, that is just plain old empirical truth. You would be sitting dead center of sprawl town. In fact without that, you would be living in a slum right now,
actually I think neither CLT nor his spouse use transit. Whether Arlington would have become slum is an open question - in part because the counter factual is too vague - is it DC with lots of growth and with a metro, but no orange line in Arlington? Less growth in the region overall? Those are different scenarios. Arlington probably wouldnt have the lowest prop tax rate NoVa, matched to schools as good as any in NoVa, with resultant high property values for SFH's. But slum? I'm skeptical. Anyway, its quite possible there are losers in Arlington from its transformation - not the majority of SFH owners, AFAICT - but there could be some who find the change in lifestyle more important than the financial benefits.
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Old 05-15-2012, 10:57 AM
 
Location: Tysons Corner
2,237 posts, read 1,357,141 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Carlingtonian View Post
Did I say rural FFX? Ok, then maybe I shoulda said "suburban FFX." The point is that the phenomenon of low crime/good schools is not reliably correlated with development/density but, rather, with household income. Granted, I haven't seen all of Annandale, but what I have seen (just outside the Beltway, south of Columbia Pike) looked great to me.

We used to live that close to the Metro but now live farther out than that. You're correct that there's no talk of additional transit (that I know of), but additional development has been discussed--e.g., the Wilson Safeway and Westover Village.
Household income is governed by density. Otherwise, when companies stop coming here, who pays salaries? Palo alto effect. Companies come to an area because its educated and the people don't get paid well. Then people start getting paid well. Then other people in other places see that. THey move to that place to also get paid well. Houses can only address part of the want, suddenly people from outside become willing to pay much more for the same places. Now the inhabitants are priced out of living in their own place, their children have to move away. Eventually the original company has to raise their salaries to keep up with the cost of the houses. Finally the company says, ********** it is too expensive to be here, and moves. Area falls to complete disrepair.

BBD

Agreed, to say it would decline to the level of slum is hyperbole. But given 3 or 4 generations, I wouldnt doubt it easily could.

PS Carlingtonian, I like our discussions, I hope I'm not coming off as too much of a brat. But if you really want the things you are saying, a good sustainable life, retainment of suburban and rural neighborhoods, you should really consider what people like me and BBD who also want these things are saying are good methods to attain it. The tighter your make a fist the more sand goes through. Complete obstructionism has never been shown to do anything in any field in any case whether it is urban planning, environmental regulation, education, child upbringing, etc

You have to make a set of rules that doesn't neglect the fact that growth naturally happens in humans (the population of the world increases) and specifically the population of areas with jobs increases much more. The same things that make an area attractive are the things you are fighting against... thereby making you wanting to live in that area not attractive. It would be great if we could all live in an area which gives us unlimited wealth, no traffic, no crime and great atmosphere, unfortunately until we die we are unlikely to see this... unless you want to take a trip to Iowa

Last edited by tysonsengineer; 05-15-2012 at 11:20 AM..
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Old 05-15-2012, 10:59 AM
 
Location: Taxmanistan
3,797 posts, read 3,304,510 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tysonsengineer View Post
Exactly!

We have to diversify. CLT the very fact that you can have a quick commute, is BECAUSE of the city you live in. If it werent for that, they wouldnt be bringing your metro straight to your door. They wouldnt be having bus services well connected. You wouldn't enjoy the safety that you do right now. You wouldnt enjoy any of those things if Arlington was like it was in 1960, that is just plain old empirical truth.
Uh, no, it's not.

Re. our quick commutes: We both drive. So the Metro doesn't help us. Yes, I know the argument that it takes would-be drivers off the roads--hogwash. It brought those would-be drivers to town in the first place, via the development that came after Metro.

Re. crime: If Metro lessens crime as you claim, then why are there fewer crimes in the parts of ARL not served by Metro? Look on any of the crime-mapping sites: The vast majority of crimes happen near Metro stops. Go up into 22207--very few crimes. (Yes, local-area income plays a role too of course.)

At any rate, no one is saying we should "go back to 1960." (Not a big fan of segregation and cigarettes.) But there has to be a limit to growth. And we can't just continue policies that result in DC being one of about three cities where new jobs are created.
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Old 05-15-2012, 11:02 AM
 
Location: Taxmanistan
3,797 posts, read 3,304,510 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by tysonsengineer View Post
Household income is governed by density.
So all those people in Great Falls are actually poor?
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Old 05-15-2012, 11:03 AM
 
Location: You want kimchi with that?
8,479 posts, read 5,458,557 times
Reputation: 2169
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carlingtonian View Post
Did I say rural FFX? Ok, then maybe I shoulda said "suburban FFX." The point is that the phenomenon of low crime/good schools is not reliably correlated with development/density but, rather, with household income. Granted, I haven't seen all of Annandale, but what I have seen (just outside the Beltway, south of LRT) looked great to me.

We used to live that close to the Metro but now live farther out than that. You're correct that there's no talk of additional transit (that I know of), but additional development has been discussed--e.g., the Wilson Safeway and Westover Village.
Well funded schools (granted not the only factor in quality) are closely related to the ratio of the property tax base to the number of school children. Which is effected by A. The amount of non residential taxable property B The number of school children per household C. The value of residential units. Clearly density and development effect these. Built out jurisdictions like FFX cannot get high value RE by having new SFHs built in any numbers (most in FFX I guess ARE teardowns). Loudoun benefits from its vacant land where new houses (which sell at a premium) can be built, and its employment base, largely tied to Dulles airport. PWC and PG, with aging housing stock, and worse access to employment, face serious challenges (PG much more so than PWC).

as for westover village development, do you have a link? Googling I find nothing.
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Old 05-15-2012, 11:06 AM
 
Location: You want kimchi with that?
8,479 posts, read 5,458,557 times
Reputation: 2169
Quote:
Originally Posted by Carlingtonian View Post
Re. crime: If Metro lessens crime as you claim, then why are there fewer crimes in the parts of ARL not served by Metro? Look on any of the crime-mapping sites: The vast majority of crimes happen near Metro stops. Go up into 22207--very few crimes. (Yes, local-area income plays a role too of course.)
A. There are more people total in those places B. Those places are closer to low income areas of Arlington that have issues with crime.

Which has more crime, Vienna or Annandale? in DC, Navy Yard, or Michigan Park?

Heck is there more crime in Pentagon City, or on Columbia Pike?
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Old 05-15-2012, 11:13 AM
 
Location: You want kimchi with that?
8,479 posts, read 5,458,557 times
Reputation: 2169
Quote:
Originally Posted by tysonsengineer View Post
Household income is governed by density. Otherwise, when companies stop coming here, who pays salaries? Palo alto effect. .
You mean employment density, and CLT seems to be speaking of residential density.

The employment density that made Arlington desirable for CLT is the employment density in DC, specifically the federal employment, IIUC.

If one could get a job in the federal govt (or two for a two earner family) and do so in a DC that had a SMALLER federal govt (but not SO small as to mean the couple wouldnt both have their jobs), and less non federal related employment, in many ways this would be an easier place for such a family to live, esp if the like living in a smaller metro area.

Thats clear, but at some point its not worth kvetching about, any more than the fact the federal govt didnt choose to locate in a city with a beach.
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