Carlyle (Old town) vs Arlington Orange Line corridor for long term real estate investment? (Alexandria: sale)

[GustavoFring]

Anyone have any thoughts about these two areas about how they may compare and contrast (favorably or unfavorably)? I'm trying to decide which would be a better investment for me to buy a condo at. I'm not trying to get rich quick, but it would be nice to hold on to it for 5-10 years and make it worth my effort.

I really like the Carlyle area, it's right between two metros and appears to have been planned very well. The development is ongoing, and it has the added benefit of being right next to Old Town.

Arlington has clearly progressed further, but this also plays into the price of everything as well. While Arlington has some nice, dense areas around each metro station, it doesn't seem like a nearly as well established community is surrounding it like Old Town. Arlington does have the added benefit of being on the Orange line and closer to Tysons for working concerns.

When comparing prices at the Reston Town Center, Arlington and Old Town, Arlington is clearly the priciest,with Old town coming in second and Reston third. But when it comes down to condos, the high rise community in the Carlyle seems more thought out. Reston is nice, but is almost as expensive as Old Town, and once you leave the two block radius of the town center, it's just suburbia.

Has anyone lived in both locations ? Anyone have any forecasts about long term, sustained growth? I'm not interested in buying somewhere and waiting twenty years for it to be great. I'm thirty, so time is ticking!

[KaySellsVA]

Hi GustavoFring,

You certainly picked two great locations for investing in a home with Arlington along the Orange Line and Old Town Alexandria! Both areas will always out perform the Reston area primarily because they're closer to DC. I've sold a lot of houses & condos in all three locations and Reston is beautiful, but more "suburban." The thing you have to remember about real estate in Northern VA is that everything is related to proximity to DC. The closer you are to DC the higher the price. That will always be. Add a location within walking distance to a Metro station and you are in great, great shape.

Arlington properties (particularly N. Arlington above Rt. 50) are usually worth a little more than Alexandria properties, but Old Town properties are a close, close second to Arlington. The most sought after condos in Arlington are those built along the Orange Line, particularly Ballston and Clarendon for the lifestyle choices there. In Old Town, the Carlyle area is pretty comparable to the Orange Line properties because it's so close to the King Street Metro, to King Street shops and restaurants and to the new Whole Foods store on Duke Street. Buyers I have worked with in the last few years tend to talk more and more about "walkability." People are wanting to live in neighborhoods accessible by walking -- to work (or the Metro), to restaurants, to Starbucks, to shopping, to weekend Farmer's Markets and to great grocery stores. That's what keeps the Carlyle area and the neighborhoods along the Orange Line in Arlington so popular and the prices so high. Even with the recent "crash" of the real estate market in N. VA, these areas retained their prices the best and they recovered the quickest. That's the sign of a great location to invest in property.

One other thing to think about -- at some point if you move from your condo, the rental market is always so very strong for condos near any Metro stations but especially these that you might want to keep your condo as an income-producing rental property until you ultimately decide to sell it. These two areas are two of the hottest rental areas in the DC area.

Now, you can't really go wrong financially, I think, buying either along the Orange Line or at Carlyle, so I would encourage you to think about your lifestyle -- do you prefer a hipper, more contemporary urban lifestyle or do you prefer the more traditional, history-filled lifestyle and architecture of Old Town. Think about what you like to do when you're not working -- do you think you'll be happier enjoying one of the neighborhoods along the Orange Line or the historic district surrounding the Carlyle area and waterfront parks and everything along King Street of Old Town. Your investment will be good at either place, so where will you enjoy living the most? Let that be your guide -- it's where you'll be spending your non-working hours. Your investment will be safe at either location.

[GustavoFring]

Originally Posted by KaySellsVA

Hi GustavoFring...-... it's where you'll be spending your non-working hours. Your investment will be safe at either location.

Thanks for the input!

Does anyone have any personal experience living at the Condos in Carlyle, specifically the ones on Jamieson Ave (2121/2151/2181)?

[CAVA1990]

I doubt it will make any difference where you invest in real estate, in either those locations or elsewhere. The market will have already taken all knowable information into account in setting the prices for them. You're likely to make just as much putting your money into something on Route 1. There's no such thing as a free additional return on investment in a competitive market.

[Alicia Bradley]

I think they'd both be good choices. I think the Orange Line Corridor (*angelic fanfare and sighs*) is a smidge overrated, and I also find Carlyle to be one of the better-done 'new developments' I've seen in the DC area. But yeah - either would be a perfectly safe investment.

[GustavoFring]

Originally Posted by CAVA1990

I doubt it will make any difference where you invest in real estate, in either those locations or elsewhere. The market will have already taken all knowable information into account in setting the prices for them. You're likely to make just as much putting your money into something on Route 1. There's no such thing as a free additional return on investment in a competitive market.

Not necessarily looking to make a buck, but I'd also like for it to at least hold its value over the next 5-10 years. No one wants to be underwater, and if the values stay up and I chose to move elsewhere and rent, it would hopefully rent for something similar to the mortgage.

[queenswake]

As other posters have said, I don't think there is any clear winner between the two locations in terms of real estate value. I don't think the sale prices will be going up by huge amounts from what you'd buy it for now. I mean, condos have their limitations with the condo fees and added difficulty in getting qualified for a loan, that limit how high the sale prices can go.

Carlyle has a lot going for it with all of the continued construction going on. I believe they are about to break ground on the tallest building in NOVA soon. I think Carlyle is still a bit sterile and needs more retail and street activity outside of King St, but it's getting there.

I think in terms of being able to rent out your place in the future, the Orange Line condo might be better. Tysons and the Dulles corridor will only continue to grow and a lot of people like living in that part of Arlington to live in a hip neighborhood close to the city, but with easy access to their jobs out in Tysons. I also think that Carlye's density will make it harder than the Orange Line location to sell or rent in the future. There are so many units there now and only more coming. Harder for your unit to stand out among 15,000 units.

So like others said, buy where you want to live. You'll do fine in either location.