All-Time Low Crime Stats for Fairfax (Arlington, Washington: how much, neighborhood, school)

[dkf747]

Originally Posted by JEB77

I think it is adding the numbers of the seven major categories of reported crimes that have been tracked for decades, rather than "playing" with them. Perhaps a fair question to ask might be whether, as the demographics of the county have changed, some current residents are less likely to report certain types of crimes than residents in the past. But it does seem meaningful that the number of crimes has declined even as the population has continued to grow.

That's a good point. I hadn't thought of that.

[IndiaLimaDelta]

Originally Posted by tysonsengineer

Crime will continue to trend down as long as the economy is good in Fairfax. Just like in DC (whose violence rate has continued to go down as the city GDP and % of owners goes up).

The economic condition of the area, no doubt, plays a significant role, but it is not the only variable. More on that below.

Originally Posted by smithy77

Crime is lower overall in the entire metro area these days. My theory is that the drug of choice for people who are inclined is pot. Pot users (it was a loooooong time ago, kids) just want to sit around and eat cookies and listen to music and say profound things that aren't that profound.

You do know that the Dutch have banned the sale of cannabis to tourists, don't you? Contrary to the expectations of legalization advocates, open cannabis trade in the Netherlands has increased violent crime and enlarged the activites of gangs. Even the famously tolerate Dutch have had enough.

Furthermore, there is no evidence I am aware of that states the the shift in choice of drugs has occurred or that any such shift is responsible for the lowering of crime rate here.

Originally Posted by CAVA1990

Here's one take on why crime rates have declined:

http://pricetheory.uchicago.edu/levi...alized2001.pdf

I've always wondered why the Repub law and order types aren't more pro-choice.

Because you cannot use horribly immoral means to achieve possibly moral ends. Because in real life, variables are not isolated and policy levers that work in isolation may in fact produce disastrous unintended consequences. Sure, if we euthanized every male baby (or better yet kill everyone but Asian women who have the lowest crime rate of any ethno-sexual demographic), crime rate would go down drastically in about 15 years or so, but crime rate reduction is NOT the most important, overriding social goal. It's an important goal, but not to which all other considerations, including ethics, should be subordinated.

Originally Posted by CAVA1990

Those in favor of choice and better access to contraception should be pointing to this as vindication and should be arguing that if we let the right wingers like Cuccnelli and Ryan have their way crime rates will likely increase or at least level off.

Yes, "right wingers like Cuccinelli and Ryan" should be euthanized along with all male children. Then there won't be much crime at all. The nerve of them to want to protect lives of unborn babies, including black and Hispanic ones.

I'd also add that with the decline in home construction activity, there are probably fewer less-educated young single males in the area. They are the predominant crime committing segment of the population. It's all about (changing) demographics.

As far as male demographics go, Hispanic immigrant workers aren't really the main driver of crime (exclusive of immigration violation, obviously).

Originally Posted by car54

Hey, let's give FCPD a little credit here!

They have a "rep" around the area that no doubt leads some violent criminals to conclude that there's easier pickings elsewhere...

Credit would be due to law enforcement IF there were any significant changes in law enforcement policy that was demonstrated to have had an impact on crime rate. I am not aware of any such change or causation in NoVA.

Why crime occurs is a complex question that will never have a definitive answer. There is an economic component (poor, uneducated people are more likely to commit crime), social component (people who are alienated from institutions -- family, schools, church, civic groups, etc. -- are more likely to offend), ethno-cultural component (East Asians, even poor ones, are highly unlikely to break social norms) and there may even be biological component per Paul Zak (about 5% of the population does not release oxytocin -- so-called the "moral" hormone -- on stimulus). Certainly law enforcement infrastructure also matters (though, to what degree, there is great debate, but "broken window" probably does help rather than hurt) and the area LE is not known for being soft on crime.

If I were to make an educated speculation, this region seems to have the "perfect storm," a convergence of all kinds of positive factors that retard crime such as widespread prosperity (I think 60% of the families have income of $100,000 a year or more), strong institutions (families that care about education, high church attendance, lots of civic groups and assocations), crime-reducing demographics (lots of high-income, highly-educated Asians, for example), fairly high quality and hard-on-crime LE and so on.

We should all appreciate the good fortune of living in the safest large metro area in the country. But one thing to keep in mind is that, like good social institutions, such a fortunate condition is very difficult to attain, but much, much easier to lose.

[CAVA1990]

Originally Posted by IndiaLimaDelta

As far as male demographics go, Hispanic immigrant workers aren't really the main driver of crime (exclusive of immigration violation, obviously).

Have you got any demographics on Fairfax County criminals that says otherwise? Also, I didn't specify hispanic. It's a fact that most crime is committed by young males, a group heavily represented in the construction and other contracting trades that have been affected by the recession and housing bust and one that's been priced out of living in the county. If I had to point to one factor in the lower crime rates it's the likely smaller number of that demographic group as a percentage of the county's population.

[brooklynborndad]

Its certainly good news for the county that the crime rate has continued to drop.

I am not convinced that police work has nothing to do with it - though I havent mapped the crime stats against changing policing techniques myself. Other than relative prosperity, most of the social and demographic factors some associate with low crime are stable, at best.

[IndiaLimaDelta]

I should note a couple of things. There tends to be temporal lag between economic indicators and crime rate. Furthermore, the economic indicators that matter seem to be relative or comparative ones rather than absolute ones.

I am not aware of any new or unique LE methodology at work in NoVA. Perhaps someone who is more familiar with the LE here can shed light.

[CAVA1990]

Originally Posted by IndiaLimaDelta

I am not aware of any new or unique LE methodology at work in NoVA. Perhaps someone who is more familiar with the LE here can shed light.

I'm sure they've received a lot more Federal dollars and significantly upgraded their technology post 9/11.

[brooklynborndad]

Originally Posted by CAVA1990

I'm sure they've received a lot more Federal dollars and significantly upgraded their technology post 9/11.

Plus years of solid county leadership under Sharon Bulova, and before her, Gerry Connoly.

I mean we have been told to evaluate political leaders purely based on numerical results, without regard to such intermediary variables as actual policies, right?

[IndiaLimaDelta]

Originally Posted by CAVA1990

I'm sure they've received a lot more Federal dollars and significantly upgraded their technology post 9/11.

I don't measure success by inputs. Can you give some examples of "significantly upgraded... technology"?

I know they have improved communications equipment, but that's more for interjurisdictional interoperability, not for dealing with "ordinary" crime.

[car54]

Originally Posted by IndiaLimaDelta

I don't measure success by inputs. Can you give some examples of "significantly upgraded... technology"?

How about the two brand new Bell 429 helicopters that just entered service?

These 172 mph twin turbine aircraft can reach any point in Fairfax County in 6.5 minutes. And once one of those things locks onto your azz...you're caught!

[CAVA1990]

Originally Posted by IndiaLimaDelta

I don't measure success by inputs. Can you give some examples of "significantly upgraded... technology"?

I know they have improved communications equipment, but that's more for interjurisdictional interoperability, not for dealing with "ordinary" crime.

I'm sure they have predictive policing capabilities now so can better place manpower where the crimes are likely to occur and can target individuals for surveillance who meet certain profiles.