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Old 10-03-2012, 04:53 AM
 
Location: Virginia
18,717 posts, read 26,837,713 times
Reputation: 42860

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Quote:
Originally Posted by CAVA1990 View Post
Cyber-warfare is cranking up, which is good for the IT folks around here.
And, it can't really be done by IT folks in other parts of the country unless they have security clearances up the ying yang.
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Old 10-03-2012, 06:32 AM
 
92 posts, read 168,386 times
Reputation: 73
Quote:
Originally Posted by Future Home Seller View Post
I know quite a few people who said that when they bought their homes in 2006 just at the peak of the market and now are upside down.
And they still have a place to live, right?
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Old 10-03-2012, 07:22 AM
 
2,185 posts, read 2,645,690 times
Reputation: 1616
Quote:
Originally Posted by shamrock847 View Post
Of course a major reduction in federal spending would be detrimental to the area, but possibly not as bad as many people think. The HQ of any agency are probably the last thing that will be reduced. Even a lot of the cuts to DoD contractors may impact the areas where the planes, ships, electronics etc. are actually made more than they would impact this area.

I don't think this is having any impact on the area right now. If anything is hurting home sales right now it is the lack of decent inventory.
Low inventory is helping home prices. It's one of the reasons it's such a seller's market in some areas and prices have gone up in the past year. If there were to be another recession inventory would increase, and home prices would go down.

I don't think the fiscal cliff is anything to worry about, like others have said. If fed budget cuts hurt the local economy it wouldn't be catastrophic. Not a big deal if you're planning to live there for the long term.
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Old 10-03-2012, 07:49 AM
 
27 posts, read 78,022 times
Reputation: 32
Home prices are based in part an expectation of growth in the economy and that expectation is no longer true in the DC area. Also home prices are more affected by short term changes because home owners move in and out more often in the DC area.

Quote:
Originally Posted by FCNova View Post
Low inventory is helping home prices. It's one of the reasons it's such a seller's market in some areas and prices have gone up in the past year. If there were to be another recession inventory would increase, and home prices would go down.

I don't think the fiscal cliff is anything to worry about, like others have said. If fed budget cuts hurt the local economy it wouldn't be catastrophic. Not a big deal if you're planning to live there for the long term.
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Old 10-03-2012, 08:56 AM
 
2,185 posts, read 2,645,690 times
Reputation: 1616
Quote:
Originally Posted by Future Home Seller View Post
Home prices are based in part an expectation of growth in the economy and that expectation is no longer true in the DC area. Also home prices are more affected by short term changes because home owners move in and out more often in the DC area.
That expectation is still true in the long term. As long as the fed govt resides in DC this area will have a strong local economy and job market, even if spending cuts may strain it in the short term.

If the fed were to make major spending cuts it could affect the job market, which would affect housing, but I just don't see it being a huge deal if you plan on staying here for the long term. And like others have said the cuts wouldn't necessarily all affect this area. But hey, nobody knows for sure what's going to happen. If this whole thing really spooks someone then they should by all means sell and get out of the market.
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Old 10-03-2012, 10:26 AM
 
Location: Fairfax County
1,534 posts, read 3,316,087 times
Reputation: 507
Quote:
Originally Posted by Future Home Seller View Post
Home prices are based in part an expectation of growth in the economy and that expectation is no longer true in the DC area.
I must have missed some news. Was there an Executive Order stating that the U.S. Capitol is being relocated?
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Old 10-03-2012, 10:38 AM
 
Location: Alexandria, VA
108 posts, read 177,725 times
Reputation: 62
Obviously, anything can happen, but I'd be very surprised if Congress allows sequestration to go through -- even right after a presidential election. That would cause significant political damage to elected officials, and let's face it: Senators and Representatives care first and foremost about protecting their seats and their political legacy.

It's tough to predict the future of the Federal workforce in D.C. and all of the contracting jobs which are dependent upon the Federal government. Like others, I don't believe the country's present fiscal path is sustainable, and I believe cuts to the Federal workforce are inevitable. The $64,000 question is where these cuts take place -- here or other locations across the country?

I would be mildly concerned if I owned a home farther away from the city. If there is a contraction in the future, and jobs are lost here at levels not seen before, then I believe housing markets out in Loudoun, Prince William, or up in Frederick would be hurt more than markets closer into the city, such as Fairfax, Arlington, Montgomery, and Prince George's.

But again, there's no way to predict what's going to happen.
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Old 10-03-2012, 06:40 PM
 
Location: Portland, OR
8,803 posts, read 7,559,898 times
Reputation: 4501
Quote:
Originally Posted by Virginia Prime View Post
Obviously, anything can happen, but I'd be very surprised if Congress allows sequestration to go through -- even right after a presidential election. That would cause significant political damage to elected officials, and let's face it: Senators and Representatives care first and foremost about protecting their seats and their political legacy.

It's tough to predict the future of the Federal workforce in D.C. and all of the contracting jobs which are dependent upon the Federal government. Like others, I don't believe the country's present fiscal path is sustainable, and I believe cuts to the Federal workforce are inevitable. The $64,000 question is where these cuts take place -- here or other locations across the country?

I would be mildly concerned if I owned a home farther away from the city. If there is a contraction in the future, and jobs are lost here at levels not seen before, then I believe housing markets out in Loudoun, Prince William, or up in Frederick would be hurt more than markets closer into the city, such as Fairfax, Arlington, Montgomery, and Prince George's.

But again, there's no way to predict what's going to happen.
I wouldn't. Do I think they'd eventually pass something later and retroactively apply it? Yes but odds are January 1 will happen without a deal. There's too much in the legislation that both sides want, and they are cuts that NEED to happen as well (both defense and entitlement). People in DC area will start getting notices toward the end of the month if something isn't worked out IMO: isn't the timeline like 60 days or something?
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Old 10-04-2012, 12:36 AM
 
1,403 posts, read 1,848,263 times
Reputation: 451
Quote:
Originally Posted by Caladium View Post
And, it can't really be done by IT folks in other parts of the country unless they have security clearances up the ying yang.
That's the thing with ones and zeroes. They can be anywhere. And where the digits go, those with security clearance will follow.
Quote:
Originally Posted by Virginia Prime View Post
Obviously, anything can happen, but I'd be very surprised if Congress allows sequestration to go through -- even right after a presidential election. That would cause significant political damage to elected officials, and let's face it: Senators and Representatives care first and foremost about protecting their seats and their political legacy.
This would be the "wars couldn't happen now, countries are too economically intertwined and conflict would only hurt both sides" argument of why the present will continue into the future. Generally true, but not always, and when it it does inevitably happen once in a while -- people being people they miscalculate at some point -- they are always in a shock.
Quote:
It's tough to predict the future of the Federal workforce in D.C. and all of the contracting jobs which are dependent upon the Federal government. Like others, I don't believe the country's present fiscal path is sustainable, and I believe cuts to the Federal workforce are inevitable. The $64,000 question is where these cuts take place -- here or other locations across the country?
You know the old pattern at least: dems in, cuts in defense and growth in health and human services.
Quote:
Originally Posted by VTHokieFan View Post
I wouldn't. Do I think they'd eventually pass something later and retroactively apply it? Yes but odds are January 1 will happen without a deal. There's too much in the legislation that both sides want, and they are cuts that NEED to happen as well (both defense and entitlement). People in DC area will start getting notices toward the end of the month if something isn't worked out IMO: isn't the timeline like 60 days or something?
Haven't you heard? The Obama administration is guranteeing costs to defense contractors so that they don't send out the legally required notices, which would oh so inconveniently go out a couple of days before the election.
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Old 10-04-2012, 09:17 AM
 
Location: Alexandria, VA
108 posts, read 177,725 times
Reputation: 62
Quote:
Originally Posted by VTHokieFan View Post
I wouldn't. Do I think they'd eventually pass something later and retroactively apply it? Yes but odds are January 1 will happen without a deal. There's too much in the legislation that both sides want, and they are cuts that NEED to happen as well (both defense and entitlement). People in DC area will start getting notices toward the end of the month if something isn't worked out IMO: isn't the timeline like 60 days or something?
Congress doesn't need a deal by January 1. They can pass a measure to delay sequestration for an additional three to six months and try to work something out in early 2013. That's my bar bet, at least.
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