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Old 10-03-2012, 09:12 AM
 
687 posts, read 1,127,816 times
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Calling people who move out of Fairfax County "refugees" despite having the second highest income in the country. The rich sure do have problems! LOL
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Old 10-03-2012, 09:16 AM
 
Location: Leesburg
799 posts, read 1,128,798 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stpickrell View Post
Wow, I'm surprised Montgomery County didn't even make the top 5, or was that a possibility in what you ran. Surprised Fairfax CITY made the #5 slot, would've expected Fauquier or Stafford to be there.
The query only includes VA counties. Here is the list for both states:

1 Prince William County, VA 149,590
2 Loudoun County, VA 137,947
3 Arlington County, VA 65,879
4 Alexandria city, VA 60,539
5 Montgomery County, MD 29,526
6 Prince George's County, MD 26,149
7 Fairfax city, VA 15,511
8 Stafford County, VA 15,177
9 Fauquier County, VA 9,863
10 Spotsylvania County, VA 8,112
11 Anne Arundel County, MD 8,060
12 Manassas city, VA 7,979
13 Virginia Beach city, VA 6,380
14 Falls Church city, VA 5,386
15 Henrico County, VA 5,146
16 Howard County, MD 4,554
17 Charles County, MD 4,466
18 Manassas Park city, VA 4,249
19 Frederick County, VA 4,063
20 Culpeper County, VA 3,654
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Old 10-03-2012, 09:19 AM
 
5,071 posts, read 8,621,144 times
Reputation: 2722
Quote:
Originally Posted by globalburgh View Post
From 1996-2010, Montgomery County is net exporting almost 3 times as many people to Frederick (#1 destination) as to Howard (#2 destination).

Edit: I looked at just outmigration for Montgomery:

1 Prince George's County, MD 112,653
2 Frederick County, MD 57,448
3 Howard County, MD 31,070
4 Anne Arundel County, MD 18,891
5 Baltimore County, MD 11,168
Any chance you could link to the source of this information and also remind us what it represents. When you say it is for 1996-2000, does that mean, for example, that 57,448 people who lived in Montgomery in 1996 were living in Frederick in 2000, or that, at various times over the period between 1996 and 2000, people who had lived in Montgomery moved to Frederick (some of whom might have moved back to Montgomery, or to different places entirely, by 2000)?

I am surprised that the number of people moving from MoCo to Frederick is greater than the number moving to Howard, but I guess MoCo does border both counties, right?
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Old 10-03-2012, 09:28 AM
 
Location: among the clustered spires
2,380 posts, read 3,863,044 times
Reputation: 869
Frederick (MD) is seeing a lot of growth along I-270 between Frederick City and Urbana. It has also upscale and downscale options for folks. I think Howard's more built-out and I'm not aware of Howard having as many downscale options -- plus, it has historically been part of the Baltimore market.

I was surprised to see Anne Arundel higher on the moving out of Fairfax list than Frederick OR Howard.
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Old 10-03-2012, 09:39 AM
 
Location: Leesburg
799 posts, read 1,128,798 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JEB77 View Post
Any chance you could link to the source of this information and also remind us what it represents. When you say it is for 1996-2000, does that mean, for example, that 57,448 people who lived in Montgomery in 1996 were living in Frederick in 2000, or that, at various times over the period between 1996 and 2000, people who had lived in Montgomery moved to Frederick (some of whom might have moved back to Montgomery, or to different places entirely, by 2000)?

I am surprised that the number of people moving from MoCo to Frederick is greater than the number moving to Howard, but I guess MoCo does border both counties, right?
I subscribe to a data query tool. Analyzing migration patterns is my day job. The IRS makes you pay to get access to their numbers.

The time period is 1996-2010. Formatting the pre-1996 data is a nightmare. I'm providing all the data for years I can easily run. The actual number of migrants is the total for all the years in a period. I removed the individual year columns. The IRS tracks where you file your return. So, if 10,000 people left Fairfax County each year to move to Loudoun, 140,000 is the number I would post.

Yes, Montgomery County does border both Frederick and Howard.
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Old 10-03-2012, 10:57 AM
 
Location: The Port City is rising.
8,775 posts, read 10,681,919 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by shamrock847 View Post
I am curious what you are basing this on. Many people in Loudoun work in western Fairfax or Loudoun and have the same commute time or less than they would if they lived in Fairfax.

many also work in Tysons Corner from what I understand. IIUC the average commute for LoCo workers (per US census) is about half an hour. Since almost all of them commute by car, thats a half hour car trip. While that COULD be people driving from Leesburg to Dulles, I guess, I think it reflects a lot of people driving to Tysons.
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Old 10-03-2012, 11:08 AM
 
Location: The Port City is rising.
8,775 posts, read 10,681,919 times
Reputation: 2498
Quote:
Originally Posted by globalburgh View Post
I ran the numbers for only Virginia. But I'd expect other "mature" suburbs to send wealthy households to Loudoun.

Mature is the right word. date of build out, age of housing and other aspects of legacy housing mix, account for lots of whats going on (in this context as well as the MoCo vs FFX data issue). Unless and until FFX gets lots of new residential densification going it has to be a signficant sender (I find it interesting that so many are going from FFX to the inner jurisdictions of ArlCo and CityofAlex)

note also, IRS data is going to track movement of existing households. NEW households, formed by former university students who previously did not pay tax, are not going to be counted - is that correct? That means FFX to ArlCo for example is probably not mostly "young people moving to the inner areas as young people do" Who they ARE (young people who got cheap apts in FFX and then got the $$ together to move to Clarendon? Empty nesters? ) I'm not really sure of.
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Old 10-03-2012, 11:16 AM
 
Location: The Port City is rising.
8,775 posts, read 10,681,919 times
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wrt to socioeconomic mix


A. Thats a result of housing mix, etc On the one hand FFX has lots of older, low rise, multifamily housing that mostly serves lower income people. On the other hand we have some of the most desired suburbs in the region. So yeah, we have a high gini coefficient.

B. I personally am fine with that. I don't expect DC, PG, Alex, etc to take on all the burdens associated with the regions poor. We in FFX are strong enough to take on our share of the burden.

C. I don't see a lot of social disharmony in FFX due to the presence of our poor. Yes, we do get sometimes bitter debates about the relative allocations of educational resources (Tina Hone vs Louise Epstein, if you will) but if you aren't a school board wonk, its pretty easy to avoid those debates. We don't have a lot of crime in FFX, and at least of some of that is not at all associated with poverty, and our mix adds a certain amount of grit and flavor to our county (though I will say that I appreciate the issues that presents for some areas where its particularly concentrated)
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Old 10-03-2012, 11:21 AM
 
Location: Leesburg
799 posts, read 1,128,798 times
Reputation: 235
Quote:
Originally Posted by brooklynborndad View Post
Mature is the right word. date of build out, age of housing and other aspects of legacy housing mix, account for lots of whats going on (in this context as well as the MoCo vs FFX data issue). Unless and until FFX gets lots of new residential densification going it has to be a signficant sender (I find it interesting that so many are going from FFX to the inner jurisdictions of ArlCo and CityofAlex)

note also, IRS data is going to track movement of existing households. NEW households, formed by former university students who previously did not pay tax, are not going to be counted - is that correct? That means FFX to ArlCo for example is probably not mostly "young people moving to the inner areas as young people do" Who they ARE (young people who got cheap apts in FFX and then got the $$ together to move to Clarendon? Empty nesters? ) I'm not really sure of.
There are holes in the IRS data. Students who are dependents are one. But looking at inter-county migration within the region over 14-years is robust. I might balk if the differences were small. Also, I wouldn't put much stock in the actual numbers. Just look at the rankings and the difference between slots. That will give you a good idea of the dominant migration pattern.

To provide a different perspective, same type of data run (1996-2010) for Loudoun County inmigration:

1 Fairfax County, VA 137,947
2 Prince William County, VA 12,842
3 Montgomery County, MD 10,290
4 Arlington County, VA 9,302
5 Alexandria city, VA 5,568
6 Prince George's County, MD 4,317
7 Fauquier County, VA 2,342
8 Frederick County, VA 2,279
9 Frederick County, MD 2,016
10 Anne Arundel County, MD 1,992
11 Howard County, MD 1,814
12 Fairfax city, VA 1,733
13 Manassas city, VA 1,568
14 Clarke County, VA 1,456
15 Virginia Beach city, VA 1,319
16 Baltimore County, MD 1,225
17 Henrico County, VA 1,156
18 Stafford County, VA 1,019
19 Falls Church city, VA 908
20 Charles County, MD 776
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Old 10-03-2012, 11:25 AM
 
Location: Leesburg
799 posts, read 1,128,798 times
Reputation: 235
Now inmigration (1996-2010) for Fairfax County:

1 Arlington County, VA 108,445
2 Alexandria city, VA 97,362
3 Prince William County, VA 70,461
4 Loudoun County, VA 45,515
5 Montgomery County, MD 37,567
6 Prince George's County, MD 27,987
7 Fairfax city, VA 15,265
8 Virginia Beach city, VA 7,105
9 Falls Church city, VA 6,601
10 Stafford County, VA 6,385
11 Anne Arundel County, MD 5,943
12 Manassas city, VA 5,163
13 Henrico County, VA 4,362
14 Howard County, MD 4,338
15 Fauquier County, VA 4,053
16 Baltimore County, MD 4,046
17 Charles County, MD 3,317
18 Spotsylvania County, VA 3,215
19 Norfolk city, VA 2,875
20 Montgomery County, VA 2,674
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