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Old 12-11-2012, 06:16 PM
 
1,403 posts, read 1,853,749 times
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Exurbs, the Fastest Growing Areas in the U.S.
Quote:
But it wasn't all just pre-crash exurban booming. Some metro areas continued to see their exurban populations grow between 2007 and 2010, after the crash and through the recession. From 2007 to 2010, metropolitan areas grew about 2.4 percent, while exurban areas grew by 13 percent. Some exurbs even out-performed their pre-recession selves. "In 22 of the largest 100 metros, the average annual growth rate in the exurbs from 2007 to 2010 was higher than that of the previous seven years," the researchers write.
For some time now, I have been of the belief that there are two trends occurring simultaneously, families moving from cities and inner suburbs to exurbs and those without kids moving from inner suburbs and rural areas to cities. This, in my view, has led to a paradigm shift from a single urban core (say, DC) and a concentric series of suburbs to an area with multiple towncenter clusters with their own job centers and urban amenities in what were previously outer suburban and exurban areas (before that rural and small town areas).

But some in this region seem rigidly wedded to the idea of a single urban core and densification.

Although this article is national in scope, it seems to lend more evidence to my idea that even if there is a move toward the center, there is still substantial movement, possibly much larger than the former, toward the periphery, leading to multiple, smaller exurban clusters.
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Old 12-11-2012, 06:27 PM
 
Location: Fairfax, VA
1,449 posts, read 2,809,588 times
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I will have to read the article later, but I agree with the basic premise. In this metro area, there are actually several different job centers. My husband has NEVER worked downtown - the job field he is in just isn't based in DC proper. I have worked downtown, then I worked in Arlington for many years, and now I work from home a large portion of my time. Lots of my neighbors work in Tysons area, Herndon/Reston, Dulles, etc. So, if you work a job that isn't based in DC proper (and there are a lot of them), there is no reason to live there.

Don't get me wrong - I love the idea of living a little closer in, but it makes no sense for us. And add in the cost of living, and the decision is pretty much made for us.
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Old 12-12-2012, 06:52 AM
 
Location: among the clustered spires
2,380 posts, read 3,874,280 times
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The problem with percentages is that if you've got 60 people living in an area that now has 6,000, that's enormous growth!

Also comparing areas like Phoenix and Las Vegas -- where there was NOTHING in the exurbs before to the Midwest/Northeast (and I count DC in that area) -- where there were small towns and cities with an identity separate from the main city for decades if not centuries beforehand.

But I agree with the premise -- the death of the suburb and exurb is being predicted too hastily by urbanists (who are a mix of childless/one kid families, the very wealthy, and the very committed to putting 2-3 kids in a 900/1000 SF condo).

OTOH, the underclass has to go somewhere -- will they be going to the ex-ex-exurbs (thinking like Luray, Hagerstown, Culpeper, etc.), the inner suburbs (Prince George's, Montgomery, Fairfax, etc.)?

Last edited by stpickrell; 12-12-2012 at 07:51 AM..
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Old 12-12-2012, 07:49 AM
 
Location: Leesburg
799 posts, read 1,130,847 times
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US cities are polycentric. What is defined as "exurban" is actually a suburb of an urban center outside of the urban core.

Good working paper on urban centrality:

http://www.ipea.gov.br/sites/000/2/p.../TD_1675aa.pdf
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Old 12-12-2012, 08:19 AM
 
Location: The Port City is rising.
8,815 posts, read 10,719,701 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by IndiaLimaDelta View Post
But some in this region seem rigidly wedded to the idea of a single urban core and densification.

Im not sure who that is.

Densification does not necessarily mean belief in a single core - certainly there are folks who support densification (and other planning changes to reduce autocentrism, VMT, etc) who are very supportive of growing development in Tysons, the White Flint corridor in MoCo, in downtown Bethesda and Silver Spring, and in other areas.

However even the largest and densest of those are unlikely to have as low an SOV mode share as the metro area's core. For those to whom lowering SOV mode share is a key goal, that is a limit on the benefits of even TOD style polycentrism. I would prefer not to debate here IF thats a worthy goal, merely to note that.

There are also issues with what the total degree of concentration/agglomeration economy/density can be in those suburban centers. There has been considerable debate about the the ultimate sq footage caps for Tysons, with the final plan being reduced from earlier proposals, to accommodate what is claimed are more realistic "less ideological" views of continued SOV share. In other locations, where the constraints on the size and density of a given center are even more limiting than in the case of Tysons, those results (relatively small centers, with higher SOV shares) will be more dramatic.

Does any of that mean we should not have polycentrism? The benefits of polycentrism CAN be lower miles traveled for commute trips (though of course two income families, job changes, etc can limit that effect as we often see in this forum). The desire of some employers to take advantage of specific locational draws like airports that are located away from the core is certainly important. The desire for lower cost space can offset the benefits of central location for many employers (though of course policies at the core can effect the cost of core office space - thats why the proposal by liberal urbanist hipster Rep. Darrel Issa to reexamine the DC height limits is important) So polycentrism is certainly something thats likely to remain, and the best thing we can do is to try to make it work for the best, on a case by case basis.
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Old 12-12-2012, 08:27 AM
 
Location: The Port City is rising.
8,815 posts, read 10,719,701 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stpickrell View Post
But I agree with the premise -- the death of the suburb and exurb is being predicted too hastily by urbanists
I don't see that in the urbaniset planning literature. I see, and Ive seen this repeatedly a claim that the demand for "WUP's" (both centrally and non centrally located) is around 1/3 of all units, and that we have too low a supply due to post war development patterns, and that we should encourage more supply, both by removing constraints on supply, by adding more transit, and by cleverer approaches to design. Ive seen SOME planners stating or implying that the current supply of "autocentric style" suburban housing is so high, that the market for new housing of that style will remain weak. I think there is a good bit of evidence that that belief is false. But that gets to larger issues about the total demand for housing as well as the split in lifestyle choice. But I dont think Ive seen anyone serious who thinks that there will no longer be any autocentric suburbs.
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Old 12-12-2012, 11:19 AM
 
Location: Falls Church, VA
540 posts, read 642,259 times
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I am in the age range where most of my friends and co-workers are having kids or are already onto their second or third. None of them are moving to the exurbs. Some stay longer in apartments so they can save for close-in, but most of the others are like myself, finding their way into the "Beltway" ring of suburbs (Falls Church, Silver Spring, etc). I think the idea of a young couple departing the urban life for exurbs is mostly imaginary. I would venture to say that most of the people moving into places past FFX Co. are those that have jobs that are already outside the Beltway or are from out of the area and cannot handle the prices of close-in properties.

But to directly address the article, where else is the growth going to happen? The land is taken. There will be some growth in high-rises in urban areas, but serious growth has to happen where there is available space.
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Old 12-12-2012, 12:09 PM
 
223 posts, read 430,997 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by stpickrell View Post
The problem with percentages is that if you've got 60 people living in an area that now has 6,000, that's enormous growth!

Also comparing areas like Phoenix and Las Vegas -- where there was NOTHING in the exurbs before to the Midwest/Northeast (and I count DC in that area) -- where there were small towns and cities with an identity separate from the main city for decades if not centuries beforehand.

But I agree with the premise -- the death of the suburb and exurb is being predicted too hastily by urbanists (who are a mix of childless/one kid families, the very wealthy, and the very committed to putting 2-3 kids in a 900/1000 SF condo).

OTOH, the underclass has to go somewhere -- will they be going to the ex-ex-exurbs (thinking like Luray, Hagerstown, Culpeper, etc.), the inner suburbs (Prince George's, Montgomery, Fairfax, etc.)?
Which places allow double wides?
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Old 12-12-2012, 10:55 PM
 
1,403 posts, read 1,853,749 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by brooklynborndad View Post
Im not sure who that is.
Tysonsengineer?
Quote:
Originally Posted by Fallout Zone View Post
I am in the age range where most of my friends and co-workers are having kids or are already onto their second or third. None of them are moving to the exurbs. Some stay longer in apartments so they can save for close-in, but most of the others are like myself, finding their way into the "Beltway" ring of suburbs (Falls Church, Silver Spring, etc). I think the idea of a young couple departing the urban life for exurbs is mostly imaginary.
It's not imaginary. Take a drive sometime and check out Ashburn. I'd say the growth of families with young children in areas like Loudoun have been explosive compared to that in "Falls Church, Silver Spring." Unfortunately this might be a situation where your own particular circumstances and social circle may be blinding you to the larger trend.
Quote:
I would venture to say that most of the people moving into places past FFX Co. are those that have jobs that are already outside the Beltway or are from out of the area and cannot handle the prices of close-in properties.
Most of former neighbors in Ashburn could easily buy homes in "close-in" areas (though probably not as big). They just didn't want to because they liked the lifestyle in areas like Ashburn -- new, clean, spacious and very children-centric. They didn't move there because they "cannot handle the prices of close-in properties" though that imaginary myth may make those who live in Falls Church better about themselves.

I would venture to say that jobs followed people to the exurbs (though more likely they were mutually reinforcing). Companies didn't build work places there and hoped people would move.

In my old Loudoun neighborhood, for example, most folks had jobs in DC or inner suburbs when I moved there years ago. By the time my family left, nearly all neighbors had jobs nearby, whether because they changed jobs or because their jobs moved there. I used to commute from Ashburn to K Street, then Arlington, then home office (I'm sort of retired now). A lawyer neighbor worked in McLean then changed jobs and now works in Loudoun. Another neighbor's job moved to Ashburn (Raytheon). Another neighbor and her new husband had defense contracting jobs near DC, her job moved to Loudoun and he got another job in Chantilly. And so on. Oh, yeah, and they (and we) all have young children.
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Old 12-13-2012, 12:30 AM
 
Location: The Heart of Dixie
7,825 posts, read 12,338,063 times
Reputation: 4779
Quote:
Originally Posted by stpickrell View Post
The problem with percentages is that if you've got 60 people living in an area that now has 6,000, that's enormous growth!

Also comparing areas like Phoenix and Las Vegas -- where there was NOTHING in the exurbs before to the Midwest/Northeast (and I count DC in that area) -- where there were small towns and cities with an identity separate from the main city for decades if not centuries beforehand.

But I agree with the premise -- the death of the suburb and exurb is being predicted too hastily by urbanists (who are a mix of childless/one kid families, the very wealthy, and the very committed to putting 2-3 kids in a 900/1000 SF condo).

OTOH, the underclass has to go somewhere -- will they be going to the ex-ex-exurbs (thinking like Luray, Hagerstown, Culpeper, etc.), the inner suburbs (Prince George's, Montgomery, Fairfax, etc.)?
I think yes places like Frederick, Winchester, Leesburg, Fredericksburg, and Waldorf are all Maryland and Virginia towns that were once very independent but now fall under the DC influence/area. I was surprised that in Winchester and even Hampshire County, West Virginia, they get the Washington Post and get their TV from DC. Just like in Maryland even Bel Air and Westminster are now considered by many to be part of the Baltimore region. And on the Eastern Shore they get their TV from Baltimore.
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