How Hot is the NoVA Real Estate Market? (Manassas, Fairfax: sale, credit card)

[tysonsengineer]

Originally Posted by CAVA1990

How do they know really how many jobs companies are adding here? I work from home and my company is based elsewhere. I assume they're just counting companies with offices here? What about all the little independent moms and pops?

These are only the companies that specifically work with FCEDA. So the 1400 jobs is likely low compared to the real amount of jobs. All of the jobs listed are in office locations within Fairfax (I removed the row of the spreadsheet that says which office added the positions). Most were Tysons/Springfield/Alexandria/Herndon in that order

[kww]

multiple offers within 24 hours. cash buyers, contingencies waived... it's getting interesting to say the least.

[CAVA1990]

Originally Posted by kww

multiple offers within 24 hours. cash buyers, contingencies waived... it's getting interesting to say the least.

awesome.

[kww]

Originally Posted by CAVA1990

awesome.

not if you're a financed buyer

definitely interesting in the sub $350,000 range.. showed a house the other day where the agent said we would be the 8th viewing on day 1 (take that with a grain of salt of course as agents always want you to think there's an offer "coming over in an hour!")

Most first time homebuyers transitioning from renting are getting discouraged as anything around their previous rental payment is either snatched up by a cash buyer or is getting bid well above list price and/or not asking for any seller subsidy.. making their offer not attractive.

from a sellers perspective.. great time to have your house up for sale (assuming desirable lot/neighborhood/updated throughout), and assuming you are not upside down on it

[dystopian]

I am coming from the point of view of an upcoming buyer. I have been registered with the MRIS through my buyers agent and have been fairly active on it managing the available homes within my parameters, basically Loudoun County, 600k'ish, 4 or 5 bedroom, 15 years old to new. In my opinion there are A LOT of homes available of this type and I am not seeing their status changing to contract or sold.

I also had a few in-depth conversation with a recommended local lender who I will be going with (Don't have a spare 600k to be a cash buyer, confused who does?) and I was very surprised at how relaxed the lending requirements have become again. It had been over 10 years since I last bought a home and from the bubble and crash I was expecting the process to be very grueling.

[Caladium]

I must say it was a pleasant surprise to see my neighbor's house go up for sale last week and be sold in a matter of days. And for more money than I expected.

When I heard they were selling I was sad for them--thought for sure the government cutbacks this year would mean the house would be hard to sell and they'd take a loss. Isn't everyone dealing with a little bit of insecurity right now? Guess not! This is one of those times I'm happy to be wrong!

It's still amazing to me, though. Who are the people buying these homes?

[CAVA1990]

Originally Posted by Caladium

It's still amazing to me, though. Who are the people buying these homes?

From reading the other forums it would seem Chinese investors with cash but I mainly see the usual contractors and military folks transfering into the area. My newest neighbors are Californians who grew up about 30 miles from where I did.

[NC211]

Originally Posted by tysonsengineer

@NC211 - While the gov boom era might be ending, it doesnt mean the US government is going out of business any time soon. This area will always, I repeat always, have a solid economic foothold, because no matter what technology comes, people will need to be geographically close to the center of the free world.

Will things grow at 10% per year like they did from 2000 to 2010 (btw you are incorrectly attributing the growth of the government to stimulus, because the stimulus has been shown to have been net exported out of this region, while the security boom, aka post 9-11 bush era was the real reason why the IT industry boomed), no but this area will always see about a 3-5% growth rate because it is high education, well off, entrepreneurial folk.

In other words, the storm clouds you are seeing are more like an overcast patch on a tropical beach. It'll block the sun for a few minutes but all in all, you are still at the beach.

Very good points, TE. I do tend to blend the word "stimulus" with the post 9/11 results and economic stimulus as of late. No argument from me on the government not going out of business! When your main employer in the region has an estimated customer base of 370 million and growing by the day, i'd say that's a true "too big to fail" outfit. I think you'd agree that over the past decade, DC has also become a more private sector city as well. Granted, like you say, being close to the center is key for some of these private sector employers to flourish. It's all good for us!

What worries me a bit is the winding down of the 9/11 effect. Although, "worry" is too strong of a word, as I'd be thrilled if we could be in a "peace time" position.

One thing though that I believe we'd all agree on. Billions of dollars don't leave the US Government system...they just get reclassified in a manner that isn't as visible to the public eye. I can't tell you how many times I've been asked by committee members outside of the area "what about the sequestration impact" when reviewing a potential deal. They tend to not believe us when we tell them that we haven't seen a single impact in the area from it. I would think that out here in my neck of the woods of Loudoun (or, as you Fairfax folks call it, no-man's-land), that we would feel the impact first. Seems to be just the opposite though, given price increases. Additionally, areas around DC that are slated for redevelopment continue to do so with tremendous success. On the for-sale side of the equation, I honestly don't know any builder in the area that can honestly build and deliver their stock fast enough. Grand openings in what were considered "challenging" areas, are seeing 30%+ of their units going under contract that very day, for full asking price, no concessions no negotiations. Clearly a driver is the interest rate environment though and the growing fear that they'll miss out on these low rates if they continue to wait, which is true. Everyone is spooked about the apartment supply issue coming up over the next 24 months. True, a ton of units coming online. But we'll see how they look when rates move up and the buying frenzy slows.

[CAVA1990]

Originally Posted by NC211

When your main employer in the region has an estimated customer base of 370 million and growing by the day, i'd say that's a true "too big to fail" outfit.

Aren't you about 50 million too high or are you counting the foreign investors?

[Nancy in Nokomis]

Last year it was terrible but right now it is hot, hot, hot - our house is under contract after about 3 days on the market - and we ended up getting full asking price. Last year this would not have happened. The appraiser told me it is suddenly a buyers market.