Mini-Housing Bubble In NOVA? (Alexandria, Springfield: new house, to buy, elementary schools)

[FCNova]

Originally Posted by capitalhockey

Just wondering if there is a mini-housing bubble in NOVA. My wife are sticker shock at the housing prices. A nice SFH (4BR, 3500 sq ft) is now 800k or higher. Some are in the mid 900k. We even passed by an area near Falls Church City where there was a sign for new Townhomes from $1.1M and new SFH from $1.3M. Even the new condos (2BR, 2BA) at MetroWest are 550k....just Condos!!

I was doing the math in my head and was wondering what household income would be able to afford these high prices. My wife and I are both working professionals and we are not even in the ball park. How can people afford these prices? Are people willing to spend 50% or more of net income on housing? Are we in the midst of a mini-housing bubble in NOVA? Are low interest rates propping up these high prices? Will price fall down when interest rates are increased? Or will this area be shelter from any price adjustments?

I think housing has weakened a little over the past 6 months. It seemed like last spring it was maybe hitting a peak and heading towards possible bubble levels again but I'm seeing prices down some now. Maybe because it's the slow selling season, I guess we'll see what happens in the spring.

In terms of million dollar townhouses, what are you looking for exactly? It's possible to pretty much spend whatever you want if your wish list is huge. I'll tell you my townhouse in Tysons wouldn't sell for more than 500k right now. It's nowhere near a new build(1970) but it's large(over 2000 sq. feet) and nicely updated. There are definitely reasonable options but if you're looking for a luxury SFH or townhouse near or inside the beltway yeah prepare to pay ALOT

[tysonsengineer]

Originally Posted by JEB77

Uh, whose post are you calling ignorant? There are probably several candidates to choose from, but my guess is that you weren't responding to airjay75's post, even though you quoted it.

Yea sorry, mis-attributed quote, should have been to fcyolo

[tysonsengineer]

Originally Posted by fcyolo

Congratulations but you are the exception not the norm. You also did not provide any details whether the school you attended was majority FARMS or ESOL.

I'm not even sure whether those designations existed in the 90s, nor do I have any means to determine said statistics considering it was nearly 20 years ago, but I can say a solid 50% of the school (Lake Braddock Secondary btw) was non-white including plenty of asians, middle eastern, hispanic, and pretty much every other nationality and race one could think of.

If your child can't do well in a place with people that might not be homogeneously like them, then that is your child's problem. A good student can learn anywhere so long as it is safe. Now show me the statistics from those schools that show its not safe. Gang numbers? Violent crimes on campus?

Didn't think so.

[fcyolo]

Originally Posted by tysonsengineer

I'm not even sure whether those designations existed in the 90s, nor do I have any means to determine said statistics considering it was nearly 20 years ago, but I can say a solid 50% of the school (Lake Braddock Secondary btw) was non-white including plenty of asians, middle eastern, hispanic, and pretty much every other nationality and race one could think of.

If your child can't do well in a place with people that might not be homogeneously like them, then that is your child's problem. A good student can learn anywhere so long as it is safe. Now show me the statistics from those schools that show its not safe. Gang numbers? Violent crimes on campus?

Didn't think so.

Yeah Lake Braddock was one of the best high schools in the 90s. It was and still continues to have low FARMS and ESOL. So I guess my point has been proven.

[fcyolo]

Originally Posted by FCNova

I think housing has weakened a little over the past 6 months. It seemed like last spring it was maybe hitting a peak and heading towards possible bubble levels again but I'm seeing prices down some now. Maybe because it's the slow selling season, I guess we'll see what happens in the spring.

In terms of million dollar townhouses, what are you looking for exactly? It's possible to pretty much spend whatever you want if your wish list is huge. I'll tell you my townhouse in Tysons wouldn't sell for more than 500k right now. It's nowhere near a new build(1970) but it's large(over 2000 sq. feet) and nicely updated. There are definitely reasonable options but if you're looking for a luxury SFH or townhouse near or inside the beltway yeah prepare to pay ALOT

Agree, last year housing has been slowed down to the sequester. This year we are going to have a large season. I am already seeing houses near the silver line and north arlington in the 5-800 range go under contract with in a week in the dead of winter. Although realtor.com is a cheerleader here is a prediction

Washington, D.C.: Favorite for Household Growth and Demand Exceeding Supply

The nation’s capital didn’t suffer as much during the recession as other cities, but the government sequester in 2013 and early 2014 substantially slowed employment growth, enabling other markets to out-perform the town where politics are always on display.

Now that the bureaucracy is open for business and contributing to economic growth, the forecast for Washington is improving, Smoke says.

And it’s not a built on a house of cards—the District ranks third overall in projected growth of home-owning households over the next five years.

Home sales should rebound next year as well—after a 2% decline in 2014, home sales are expected to surge 10% in 2015.

Top 10 Hot Housing Markets to Watch in 2015

[tysonsengineer]

Originally Posted by fcyolo

Yeah Lake Braddock was one of the best high schools in the 90s. It was and still continues to have low FARMS and ESOL. So I guess my point has been proven.

I don't think you understand. While statistically speaking higher income places always have higher performing schools (for a whole host of reasons that predate the actual student's entry into that school like PreK programs and other elements that are available to those with higher income) whether ONE particular student does well is independent of their surroundings, so long as the school is safe.

If your child has a problem learning in a safe school which happens to have more immigrants, that is YOUR childs problem. You can excel in any safe educational environment if you work hard and take on PERSONAL responsibility. So, picking a school based on demographics, income, etc which was your base point continues to be ignorant. Pick a neighborhood that works for you, and so long as the school doesn't have a crime problem (something that I doubt any Fairfax school really has) then it is up to the STUDENT how far they can go and how well they can do. Everything else is excuse making, stereotyping, and scapegoating the problem.

[fcyolo]

Originally Posted by airjay75

Easy. I live in the Newington CDP and am zoned for Lee HS.

Lee HS (See FCPS - School Profiles - Lee HS - Demographics):
FARMS: 52.7%
Asian: 26.21%
Black: 14.2%
Hispanic: 34.48%
White: 22.13%

Newington CDP (Look up Newington, VA at American FactFinder)
Median Household Income: $128,389
Mean Household Income: $142,969
Asian:14.4%
Black: 15.4%
Hispanic: 14.2%
White: 58.7%

There are a lot of townhouses and multi units in that area. It also may be very military centric. The schools are lower performing and the housing values are lower than other areas with better performing schools. I don't understand what you are trying to prove, housing prices reflect the schools they feed into except for city like areas.

[fcyolo]

Originally Posted by tysonsengineer

I don't think you understand. While statistically speaking higher income places always have higher performing schools (for a whole host of reasons that predate the actual student's entry into that school like PreK programs and other elements that are available to those with higher income) whether ONE particular student does well is independent of their surroundings, so long as the school is safe.

If your child has a problem learning in a safe school which happens to have more immigrants, that is YOUR childs problem. You can excel in any safe educational environment if you work hard and take on PERSONAL responsibility. So, picking a school based on demographics, income, etc which was your base point continues to be ignorant. Pick a neighborhood that works for you, and so long as the school doesn't have a crime problem (something that I doubt any Fairfax school really has) then it is up to the STUDENT how far they can go and how well they can do. Everything else is excuse making, stereotyping, and scapegoating the problem.

Again, you need to look at the poverty and ESOL rates. There are many schools in McLean with a large amount of immigrants who don't have FARMS and ESOL issues. Look at TJ, it's full of Asians.

In terms of safety there is a strong argument to be made that schools with higher FARMS (poverty issues) have more incidents of safety related issues.

"Also, many safety and security measures tended to be more prevalent in high-poverty public schools (where 76 percent or more of students are eligible for free or reduced-price lunch) than in low-poverty schools (where 25 percent or less of students are eligible for free or reduced-price lunch) during the 2011–12 school year. "

Fast Facts

[airjay75]

Originally Posted by fcyolo

There are a lot of townhouses and multi units in that area. It also may be very military centric. The schools are lower performing and the housing values are lower than other areas with better performing schools. I don't understand what you are trying to prove, housing prices reflect the schools they feed into except for city like areas.

You asked for an example of a neighborhood in NoVA where the demographics of the school did not mirror the demographics of a neighborhood zoned for that school. So, I gave you one. I never said that perceived school quality does not affect housing values - it most certainly does. The only point I am trying to make is that two of your earlier claims are patently incorrect. One, you claimed that real estate zoned for a select group of 10 high schools is the least risky real estate to buy. I disagree for the reasons I stated earlier. Two, you claimed that the demographics of a neighborhood are always going to reflect the demographics of children at the schools for which they are zoned. That can be the case where the majority of households have children in school, but that is very often not the case, as illustrated by the example I showed you.

[airjay75]

Originally Posted by tysonsengineer

Yea sorry, mis-attributed quote, should have been to fcyolo

No problem at all.