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Old 10-04-2015, 11:09 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheseGoTo11 View Post
Loudoun County seems to underperform its demographics.
LCPS does have the highest graduation rate of any major system in NoVa - 95.6% of students in the class of 2015 graduated on time, compared to 92.8% in Arlington, 92.7% in Fairfax and 91.4% in Prince William.

Last edited by JD984; 10-04-2015 at 12:14 PM..
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Old 10-04-2015, 07:08 PM
 
Location: Fairfax, VA
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I think we will see LCPS go up over the next few years. All those new families are just now going through the system. Those little kids will hit HS soon enough. Scores have already increased in recent years.
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Old 10-05-2015, 07:37 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by hilsmom View Post
I think we will see LCPS go up over the next few years. All those new families are just now going through the system. Those little kids will hit HS soon enough. Scores have already increased in recent years.
Good news for NoVa is that scores in each of APS, FCPS and LCPS have been going up in recent years, even as national averages and the scores over in Montgomery County have gone down.

I'm not sure, however, that LCPS is going to see a big jump in its cohort of high school students in a few years. The school demographics are already trending older now and the percentage of total students in high school is only a percentage point or two lower than in FCPS. Arlington is the local jurisdiction that can expect to see a very large increase in the number of high school students in the next 5-10 years. They will need new schools, additions to the existing schools and/or boundary changes.
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Old 10-05-2015, 12:20 PM
 
Location: Brambleton, VA
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JEB77 View Post
I'm not sure, however, that LCPS is going toS see a big jump in its cohort of high school students in a few years. The school demographics are already trending older now and the percentage of total students in high school is only a percentage point or two lower than in FCPS. Arlington is the local jurisdiction that can expect to see a very large increase in the number of high school students in the next 5-10 years. They will need new schools, additions to the existing schools and/or boundary changes.
Loudoun is opening quite a few new high schools and expanding existing schools:
- Rock Ridge HS opened Fall 2014
- Riverside HS opened Fall 2015
- Freedom HS expansion opened Fall 2015
- Academies of Loudoun will open Fall 2018
- HS-11 (Dulles North/Brambleton) will open Fall 2020
- HS-9 (Dulles South/TBD) will open Fall 2021

Five of the six elementary schools in the Dulles North planning zone are overcapacity; the seventh school opens Fall 2016 and the eighth school opens Fall 2018. These schools will funnel into the two existing middle schools which are well overcapacity (Stone Hill MS has 1516 in a 1290 capacity; Eagle Ridge MS has 1449 in a 1180 capacity) and a new middle school which opens Fall 2017. These three middle schools will then funnel into Briar Woods HS, Rock Ridge HS, and HS-11. These schools may not even be enough for all the growth projected for this area.

Rock Ridge and Riverside won't be included in this SAT data for another year or two because the new schools open with no senior class and usually only a very small junior class of new students or those who chose not to be grandfathered in at their old school.
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Old 10-05-2015, 01:05 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by cdmurphy View Post
Loudoun is opening quite a few new high schools and expanding existing schools:
- Rock Ridge HS opened Fall 2014
- Riverside HS opened Fall 2015
- Freedom HS expansion opened Fall 2015
- Academies of Loudoun will open Fall 2018
- HS-11 (Dulles North/Brambleton) will open Fall 2020
- HS-9 (Dulles South/TBD) will open Fall 2021

Five of the six elementary schools in the Dulles North planning zone are overcapacity; the seventh school opens Fall 2016 and the eighth school opens Fall 2018. These schools will funnel into the two existing middle schools which are well overcapacity (Stone Hill MS has 1516 in a 1290 capacity; Eagle Ridge MS has 1449 in a 1180 capacity) and a new middle school which opens Fall 2017. These three middle schools will then funnel into Briar Woods HS, Rock Ridge HS, and HS-11. These schools may not even be enough for all the growth projected for this area.

Rock Ridge and Riverside won't be included in this SAT data for another year or two because the new schools open with no senior class and usually only a very small junior class of new students or those who chose not to be grandfathered in at their old school.
I didn't frame the issue properly in the prior post - it isn't whether the enrollment will increase or new schools will open, but whether it's right to assume that LCPS has a bunch of younger kids who are both (1) going to hit high school-age in a few years like 12-year locusts and (2) also increase LCPS's test scores.

Maybe they will, but the percentage of students in LCPS who are in K-8 is only slightly higher now than is the case in FCPS, and lower in both LCPS and FCPS than is the case in APS. There are a lot of high-school kids already in Loudoun who've gone through LCPS, so if there are just more of them attending a larger number of schools, why expect the SAT scores to improve? Are the kids attending elementary school in Aldie or Brambleton now receiving a different education than the ones who attended elementary school in Ashburn or South Riding seven or eight years ago?

I can kind of look at what's happened in Arlington and say, yeah, the school demographics are changing rapidly in a way that led and will continue to lead to improving test scores. I don't see that necessarily happening in Loudoun or Fairfax.

Last edited by JD984; 10-05-2015 at 01:24 PM..
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Old 10-05-2015, 01:30 PM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JEB77 View Post
I didn't frame the issue properly in the prior post - it isn't whether the enrollment will increase or new schools will open, but whether it's right to assume that LCPS has a bunch of younger kids who are both (1) going to hit high school-age in a few years like 12-year locusts and (2) also increase LCPS's test scores.

Maybe they will, but the percentage of students in LCPS who are in K-8 is only slightly higher now than is the case in FCPS, and lower in both LCPS and FCPS than is the case in APS. There are a lot of high-school kids already in Loudoun who've gone through LCPS, so if there are just more of them attending a larger number of schools, why expect the SAT scores to improve? Are the kids attending elementary school in Aldie or Brambleton now receiving a different education than the ones who attended elementary school in Ashburn or South Riding seven or eight years ago?

I can kind of look at what's happened in Arlington and say, yeah, the school demographics are changing rapidly in a way that led and will continue to lead to improving test scores. I don't see that necessarily happening in Loudoun or Fairfax.
And that's how schools tend to improve and decline.

What is the point of these discussions when it all really comes down to demographics?

If Fairfax County would focus on encouraging redevelopment of stagnant areas (like what has been done in Mosaic, Springfield, and Tysons) and work with the right parties to improve public transportation, and take us out of 1950s suburban model - I would wager that overall test scores would improve.
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Old 10-06-2015, 07:03 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by TheWatchmen View Post
And that's how schools tend to improve and decline.

What is the point of these discussions when it all really comes down to demographics?

If Fairfax County would focus on encouraging redevelopment of stagnant areas (like what has been done in Mosaic, Springfield, and Tysons) and work with the right parties to improve public transportation, and take us out of 1950s suburban model - I would wager that overall test scores would improve.
Maybe you've answered your own question. If you want to persuade decision-makers people to redevelop certain areas, it could be useful to point to the test scores for the assigned schools as one piece of evidence that an area is lagging behind.
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Old 10-06-2015, 07:48 AM
 
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Quote:
Originally Posted by JEB77 View Post
Maybe you've answered your own question. If you want to persuade decision-makers people to redevelop certain areas, it could be useful to point to the test scores for the assigned schools as one piece of evidence that an area is lagging behind.
I try, as a resident of an area that could stand some redevelopment. These discussions don't tend to be very politically correct, though.
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Old 10-06-2015, 09:09 PM
 
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Found Prince William to add, so got inspired. Blue = Fairfax; Red = Arlington; Green = Loudoun; Purple = Prince William; Black = Falls Church City; Orange = Alexandria City.

TJHSST 2182 (FCPS)
HB Woodlawn 1862 (APS)
Langley 1815 (FCPS)
McLean 1813 (FCPS)
Woodson 1773 (FCPS)
Yorktown 1768 (APS)
George Mason 1766 (FCCPS)
Oakton 1755 (FCPS)
Madison 1744 (FCPS)
Marshall 1713 (FCPS)
Washington-Lee 1699 (APS)
Robinson 1691 (FCPS)
Chantilly 1685 (FCPS)
APS AVERAGE 1680
West Springfield 1672 (FCPS)
South Lakes 1669 (FCPS)
FCPS AVERAGE 1669
Stone Bridge 1666 (LCPS)
Lake Braddock 1661 (FCPS)
Briar Woods 1640 (LCPS)
Fairfax 1640 (FCPS)
Dominion 1638 (LCPS)
Centreville 1637 (FCPS)
Westfield 1633 (FCPS)
Potomac Falls 1632 (LCPS)
Freedom 1629 (LCPS)
Herndon 1628 (FCPS)
Loudoun Valley 1622 (LCPS)
Loudoun County 1614 (LCPS)
LCPS AVERAGE 1612
Woodgrove 1610 (LCPS)
Broad Run 1609 (LCPS)
Patriot 1605 (PWCPS)
Tuscarora 1601 (LCPS)
Battlefield 1586 (PWCPS)
Heritage 1586 (LCPS)
South County 1581 (FCPS)
West Potomac 1572 (FCPS)
John Champe 1569 (LCPS)
Osbourn Park 1569 (PWCPS)
Forest Park 1528 (PWCPS)
Edison 1523 (FCPS)
STATE AVERAGE 1523
Annandale 1517 (FCPS)
PWCPS AVERAGE 1507
Stuart 1506 (FCPS)
Woodbridge 1499 (PWCPS)
Brentsville 1498 (PWCPS)
Hayfield 1498 (FCPS)
Falls Church 1491 (FCPS)
Wakefield 1462 (APS)
NATIONAL AVERAGE 1462
Hylton 1454 (PWCPS)
Stonewall Jackson 1450 (PWCPS)
Garfield 1446 (PWCPS)
Lee 1441 (FCPS)
TC Williams 1433 (ACPS)
Park View 1420 (LCPS)
Mount Vernon 1407 (FCPS)
Potomac 1350 (PWCPS)
Freedom 1268 (PWCPS)
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Old 10-07-2015, 07:07 AM
 
Location: Falls Church, VA
540 posts, read 638,554 times
Reputation: 470
I'll be honest, I'm a little surprised that McLean is so far above George Mason. Is that a recent development?
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