Jan 2008 real estate data -- Fairfax County prices down 13% since last year (mortgage)

[mojo_1979]

These numbers were just released yesterday. If you're not familiar with what these numbers are saying, then here is the skinny:

The real estate industry uses year-over-year (yoy) numbers to show the current market trends. They do this because from one month to the next, it is quite normal for the numbers to bounce around. But from one year to the next, this tends to be a much more accurate picture of the current market trends. The numbers below represent the statistics for January of 2007 and then compare them to January of 2008.

Click on the link and you will see that Fairfax County is actually faring better than a lot of other areas! Prince William County is down over 24% since last year.


Fairfax County VA

----------------- / Jan 2008 / Jan 2007 / % Change

Average Sold Price..$472,016 / $531,143 / -11.13%
Median Sold Price....$395,000 / $456,250 / -13.42%
Total Units Sold...............538 / 1,004 / -46.41%

http://www.mris.com/reports/stats/route.cfm

[vanyali]

Thanks for posting that! Good to know. But your link doesn't work for me.

[lchoro]

Here's the stats page.

MRIS Statistics

On the first link for Monthly RE Trend Indicator, I would select the detach/attach reports as it gives the breakdowns of detached vs. townhomes vs. condos.

[mojo_1979]

Originally Posted by lchoro

Here's the stats page.

MRIS Statistics

On the first link for Monthly RE Trend Indicator, I would select the detach/attach reports as it gives the breakdowns of detached vs. townhomes vs. condos.

Thanks for fixing the link. Using detached/attached doesn't make much difference. In fact, detached single family homes have done worse than townhomes and condos in Fairfax county... -13% for detached vs. -11% for attached.

[car54]

YAYYYY!!

I just wish the assessment was falling as fast.

When my house drops below $100K (current assessment 869K)....I'm going to quit cutting the grass and hang a tire swing from my old sycamore tree!

[vanyali]

Originally Posted by car54

YAYYYY!!

I just wish the assessment was falling as fast.

When my house drops below $100K (current assessment 869K)....I'm going to quit cutting the grass and hang a tire swing from my old sycamore tree!

I like tire swings.

[SmartMoney]

Unfortunately (or fortunately), for many of the financing programs, Fairfax County, Montgomery County, PG County are all in the same statistical area for the Federal numbers, as used by HUD.

I am not disqualifying the Fairfax figures, I just want people to understand this is not the same number being used in any mortgage rescue plan, either FHA Secure or the FHA Expansion Bill.

[saganista]

Originally Posted by mojo_1979

Thanks for fixing the link. Using detached/attached doesn't make much difference. In fact, detached single family homes have done worse than townhomes and condos in Fairfax county... -13% for detached vs. -11% for attached.

The data may not mean what you think they mean. First of all, they are of no general relevance to real estate values at all. They describe only the unique population of homes that was both offered for sale and purchased during the month. Data for Jan 2008 would be comparable to those for Jan 2007 only to the extent that the mix of homes that was offered for sale and purchased in the earlier month was at most only slightly different from that of a year later. The credit crunch of course has caused some quite significant distortions in such mixes. For instance, the median price of new SFH's sold in Fairfax County has been rising steadily, recently approaching $1 million. That's not necessarily because values are going up. It's rather that the credit crunch has only barely touched either buyers or sellers in the 7-figure range, so that portion of the market has been relatively unchanged. But a sizable chunk of the 6-figure new SFH market is encountering problems in meeting tightened credit requirements, and as the result, sellers are not building and offering into that segment of the market. What would you expect to see then in the numbers? An increasing median on rather sharply declining volume...exactly the trends that are observed. Another bit of information that would be useful to have is some sort of idea of the nature of the market in Jan 2007. Was it at or near a peak, whereby an decrease might have been due, or was it at or near a trough, where an increase might have been expected. How did the 2007-over-2006 and 2006-over-2005 trends look in comparison to those of 2008-over-2007? The bottom line is that year-over-year median sales prices don't necessarly say anything clear or distinct about trends in generalized values. It's also well to remember that home sales are a function of both the real estate market and the credit market. It might well be that the real estate market itself in Fairfax County, and in the area generally, is very little changed of late, but that problems in the credit market are influencing the number of transactions rather severely, and that this is actually the dominant factor to be noted in explaining the data that are observed.

[mojo_1979]

Originally Posted by saganista

The data may not mean what you think they mean....

By all means then, please use the data below and tell me what it really means? Does it mean prices are rising?

Originally Posted by saganista

How did the 2007-over-2006 and 2006-over-2005 trends look in comparison to those of 2008-over-2007?

Looking at the data I provided below, we can see that...

Jan 2008 / Jan 2007 -13.2% *** January 2008 Median = $395,000
Jan 2007 / Jan 2006 +1.39% *** January 2007 Median = $456,000
Jan 2006 / Jan 2005 +10.6% *** January 2006 Median = $450,000
Jan 2005 / Jan 2004 +25.6% *** January 2005 Median = $408,000

It's easy to see that prices were rising by an enormous amount, then they began to rise less and less, they essentially became flat, and now they are falling... Does it get any clearer than that?

Originally Posted by saganista

The bottom line is that year-over-year median sales prices don't necessarly say anything clear or distinct about trends in generalized values.

Year-over-year prices is THE standard by which real estate markets are measured. Your logic is simply wrong. By comparing the same calender month, from one year to the next, we're able to extract the past year's market performance WITHOUT it being influenced by the usual month to month variations.

Nevertheless, please tell me if you're unable to extract the current market trend based on the data below.... The green and red color coding should help. Note that the number in blue represents the market peak (July 2005)


Fairfax County VA *** Year-Over-Year Median Price Comparison

**** 2008 *** 2007 *** Change

Jan / 395,000 / 456,000 / -13.20%


**** 2007 *** 2006 *** Change

Dec / 430,000 / 450,000 / -4.44%
Nov / 420,000 / 462,000 / -9.24%
Oct / 425,000 / 460,000 / -7.61%
Sep / 435,000 / 445,000 / -2.25%
Aug / 478,000 / 469,000 / +2.08%
July / 480,000 / 485,000 / -1.03%
Jun / 490,000 / 500,000 / -2.00%
May / 460,000 / 487,000 / -5.59%
Apr / 474,000 / 480,000 / -1.21%
Mar / 456,000 / 477,000 / -4.40%
Feb / 448,000 / 469,000 / -4.47%
Jan / 456,000 / 450,000 / +1.39%


**** 2006 *** 2005 *** Change

Dec / 450,000 / 484,000 / -7.05%
Nov / 462,000 / 482,000 / -3.99%
Oct / 460,000 / 489,000 / -6.02%
Sep / 445,000 / 485,000 / -8.25%
Aug / 469,000 / 500,000 / -6.20%
July / 485,000 / 503,000 / -3.58%
Jun / 500,000 / 500,000 / 0.00%
May / 487,000 / 489,000 / -0.50%
Apr / 480,000 / 458,000 / +4.80%
Mar / 477,000 / 441,000 / +8.14%
Feb / 469,000 / 416,000 / +12.69%
Jan / 450,000 / 408,000 / +10.60%


**** 2005 *** 2004 *** Change

Dec / 484,000 / 410,000 / +18.80%
Nov / 482,000 / 395,000 / +22.03%
Oct / 489,000 / 348,000 / +33.45%
Sep / 485,000 / 349,000 / +22.89%
Aug / 500,000 / 380,000 / +18.60%
July / 503,000 / 351,000 / +21.30%
Jun / 500,000 / 380,000 / +16.58%
May / 489,000 / 359,000 / +29.8%
Apr / 458,000 / 365,000 / +25.48%
Mar / 441,000 / 360,000 / +22.53%
Feb / 416,000 / 327,000 / +27.40%
Jan / 408,000 / 325,000 / +25.69%


Monthy Real Estate Trend Indicator

[claude henry smoot]

Good luck mojo… debating this topic with certain posters is like debating with the NAR/David Lereah. I recently engaged in a similar debate regarding the relationship between median incomes and housing prices. I argued that median incomes and housing prices were horribly disconnected, and that would lead to continued falling prices. The thread quickly degenerated into nitpicking and was essentially saturated with spin, which left me so dizzy I had to lie down for several hours and eventually seek the care of an ENT. That being said, in the weeks since that thread ended, I have seen dozens of articles in the media citing the historical and relevant relationship between median incomes and housing prices. Apparently I was not as misguided as some on this board had implied.

So reading this thread – flashbacks – very dizzying indeed. But I’ve regained my composure, and I, for one, understand and agree with the general point of your post, and appreciate the research.