February 2008 Real Estate Data: Fairfax County (-10%) -- Northern VA (-9%) -- Prices Continue to Drop

[vanyali]

They jumped one week, and fell back the next week, and it's a "plunge"? Sounds like normal ups and downs to me. The number of mortgage applications after this drop is still higher than it was two weeks ago. I don't even see why that's news.

Mojo -- it's funny that the media up there is overly rosy about the DC-area market. I'm in Charlotte right now, and we were the only city in the index to show a YOY price increase for January, and the way the media reports that down here is that everything is horrible, the sky is falling, and by the way Charlotte prices were up, but the world is still ending anyway. So buyers are picking up on the overall tone of the reporting and are scared to look now. And this is despite prices for things that aren't mansions (even close in, good schools, etc) staying essentially flat over the last decade -- and I don't mean flat after inflation, I mean actually flat (bubble? what bubble?) All real estate is local, but panics know no bounds.

[TrippingJay]

Here is the Washington Post's Outlook for 2008 for Fairfax County: 2008 Housing Outlook: Fairfax County, VA Property Values (washingtonpost.com)

Most of Fairfax County zip codes are projected to fall between 5 and 9 percent. The only areas showing increases are 20170 in Herndon, 22046-Fall Church and vicinity, & 22153 in Springfield. The areas that have remained flat are McLean, and Vienna. Although I'm not sure how accurate these projections are as several homes in the 20170 are foreclosures when this shows an increase in median home prices.

Loudoun County did even worse: 2008 Housing Outlook: Loudoun County, VA Property Values (washingtonpost.com)

The District was the only area with increases in median home prices. Montgomery County had both increases and decreases with most of the area being flat.

Vanyali-That's very interesting of the panic in Charlotte, I thought that was the one market that kept up with inflation?

[vanyali]

Charlotte is pretty flat and has been this whole time except for a few pockets in the luxury market that appreciated to a dumb degree, and sales volume is going way down in all segments of the market this year, but we haven't seen huge price decreases yet, except in poorly-built far-out starter home communities (some bad builders actually defrauded a lot of people, that's it's own situation).

[spidercharm]

It just doesn't make sense that Mclean/Vienna (or for that matter any so called "premium" area not affected by the dowtrend) can stay flat on the longer run. It has to back down to match with the trend. Because.....

For example, assume that Oakton/Fairfax homes have lost about 100K of their value in last 2 years, the difference in prices between these and Mclean homes now became 100K more. People would rather buy where it got cheaper (basic economics) and Mclean can't sustain it's prices.

Same thing applies to state to state comparisons. Experts say NY city RE prices won't go down..no way....recent downturn made several other cities so attractive, prices need to adjust...basic economics.....

Now, granted rich folks in Mclean or NY can afford to not sell for a while; but eventually you can't dictate the market. Market dictates you.

In general, I feel we have a long journey downhill (albeit slow) for RE market...we just got started. Homes are not stocks and they take a long time to correct, let's not forget.

My 2 cents anyway...for what that's worth.

Originally Posted by TrippingJay

Here is the Washington Post's Outlook for 2008 for Fairfax County: 2008 Housing Outlook: Fairfax County, VA Property Values (washingtonpost.com)

Most of Fairfax County zip codes are projected to fall between 5 and 9 percent. The only areas showing increases are 20170 in Herndon, 22046-Fall Church and vicinity, & 22153 in Springfield. The areas that have remained flat are McLean, and Vienna. Although I'm not sure how accurate these projections are as several homes in the 20170 are foreclosures when this shows an increase in median home prices.

Loudoun County did even worse: 2008 Housing Outlook: Loudoun County, VA Property Values (washingtonpost.com)

The District was the only area with increases in median home prices. Montgomery County had both increases and decreases with most of the area being flat.

Vanyali-That's very interesting of the panic in Charlotte, I thought that was the one market that kept up with inflation?

[car54]

Yeah, it's getting bad when part of George Washington's River Farm goes for a measly $8 million. Asking price $9.75 million. The sellers must be devastated.


What a property though...25+ acres on the Potomac...I'd give my eye teeth!

WASHINGTON FINE PROPERTIES

[lchoro]

New contracts for homes in Alexandria are down 35% from last year. It doesn't appear to be improving.

[mojo_1979]

NVAR will be releasing the official March 2008 sales statistics in a couple of days. Does anybody want to weigh in with an opinion? Recently, the trend for sales prices has gone from bad to worse.

Was March more of the same or are things turning around in Nova?

I predict another report showing prices about 10% lower than last years prices.

[vanyali]

I'd say prices down, 10% might be a good guess. I'm suddenly seeing new listings that I can actually afford in the places I'm looking, and old listings at new prices, so yeah, I'd say things are still on the way down, and will stay that way until people have some reason to start feeling more optimistic about their own finances and about the economy in general. Right now, there's still nothing but bad news out there.