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Old 05-25-2018, 11:19 AM
 
Location: Reston, VA
2,046 posts, read 3,757,177 times
Reputation: 1205

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These days small bidding wars are happening, but people are not drastically under pricing to get bidding wars going.

Based on information a realtor sent to all the people who live in detached single family homes in 20191, in 2017 houses that sold in less than 14 days sold for an average of 99.8% of original price, houses that sold in 15-30 days sold for an average of 98% of original price, and houses over 31 days sold for an average of 94.7% of original price.

I was frustrated when we bought here in 2002, as every house we were interested in had a bidding war that ended up raising the price $30-50K. In the end, we felt lucky to be in a two way bidding war and getting the house for $5K over asking.
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Old 05-25-2018, 02:16 PM
 
129 posts, read 134,158 times
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I"m a 30+ year resident of the Herndon area, 24 years in my current house on the north side of Herndon (outside the town limits). Herndon High School is currently undergoing an extensive renovation to the physical plant and all 3 of my children received a good education there. I work on the far side (east) Tysons and commute by car and it takes me around 30 minutes each way via the toll road rather than Metro even though my office is only a few hundred yards from the McLean metro stop. This is because the door to door time would be almost double my commute via car. Your $650K budget would buy you a renovated single family house around 20-30 years old in my area.
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Old 05-25-2018, 02:28 PM
 
11,224 posts, read 13,179,452 times
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OP, I don't think Reston has a bad reputation. I think it is an ideal situation for those working in the Tyson's area or out around the Dulles tech corridor. DC? Not so much. I've had a couple of coworkers start out in Reston and end up moving because the commute into DC was an absolute bear from Reston. One coworker works in DC and her husband in Tyson's. The Reston commute was fine for him but awful her and the toll rode gets expensive. Since your husband is working in Tyson's it is certainly an option for you to consider. I think many people looking out that way with kids also often get lured in by the newness and kid-centric pull of the Ashburn/Loudoun area. I do believe that many years ago, one of the school pyramids in Reston was not well-regarded but that may have changed since I last was interested in those sorts of things. I really like their Town Center out there.
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Old 05-25-2018, 02:41 PM
 
6 posts, read 6,270 times
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Thanks everyone, this is helpful. I'm surprised to hear that the commute by car is so much faster than by metro. Although I think my husband would still choose 1 hour by public transit vs. 30 minutes driving in traffic. It's partially a vision issue and partially stress. He is just much happier not having to deal with driving. We finally sold his car because we were paying $500 for the car plus $15 a day for public transit because he never drove to work. We may just look into commuter buses. Or do you guys have carpool vans? UberPool?

One of the areas houses are popping up is near Fox Mill road in the Carson Middle school zone. Decent area?
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Old 05-25-2018, 04:21 PM
 
873 posts, read 1,200,455 times
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As this forum's other Reston resident, let me add a couple of things to the excellent points already made by JFromReston.


Reston, particularly South Reston (i.e., south of the Dulles Toll Road) tends to get a bit of a bad rap from some because of a couple of condo/rental communities that are geared to more moderate income residents. What crime exists there is more of the petty variety, such as car break-ins or stealing beer from the local 7-11. But the vast majority of South Reston is as safe as anywhere else in suburban middle class Northern Virginia, which means very safe.


At your budget of $650,000, you should be able to find a decent if somewhat older SFH in good shape in a desirable neighborhood. North Reston on the whole tends to be more expensive than South Reston for SFHs. As for school districts, it is my understanding that the only less desirable elementary school is Dogwood, but in your price range you wouldn't be in that district anyway. Langston Hughes Intermediate and South Lakes High are perfectly fine; I personally know graduates of both who have gone on to the University of Virginia, USC, and the U.S. Air Force Academy.


If your husband is going to work in Tysons and wants to take Metro there, Reston is even more of a no-brainer. I think it's something like eight minutes to get from Wiehle/Reston East (current terminus of the Silver Line) to the first of the four stops in Tysons. The Fairfax Connector provides pretty good neighborhood coverage for bus routes to Wiehle/Reston East.


Of course, like any place Reston is not all sunshine and rainbows. With the coming of Metro there is a ton of new development (way too much, in the opinion of most local residents) in the immediate areas along both sides of the Toll Road, with no corresponding investment in infrastructure. Traffic is as bad as you've heard, especially during rush hour. While local government in Fairfax County is pretty well run, it is essentially one-party (Democratic) control, with all that implies about being responsive to citizens' opinions. And if you get a SFH, you will discover the joys of dealing with the Reston Association's Design and Review Board, which God used as his role model when He (or is it now She?) created the term obsessive-compulsive.


But all in all, I think you would find Reston a good choice for your needs. Hope the move works out for you.
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Old 05-25-2018, 09:42 PM
 
Location: Reston, VA
2,046 posts, read 3,757,177 times
Reputation: 1205
Quote:
Originally Posted by ICS67 View Post
At your budget of $650,000, you should be able to find a decent if somewhat older SFH in good shape in a desirable neighborhood. North Reston on the whole tends to be more expensive than South Reston for SFHs. As for school districts, it is my understanding that the only less desirable elementary school is Dogwood, but in your price range you wouldn't be in that district anyway.
I agree that a budget of $650,000 will find a older SFH in good shape in a desirable neighborhood in south Reston, but there is not much for available in that price range on the north side of the toll road. I just checked the listings and found only one house and it looks nice - 10907 Hunt Club Road FX10229827. I really just know real estate when it comes to single family homes in 20191 (south Reston). FYI - I am not a real estate agent.

OP should note that there is an area of Reston that feeds into Dogwood Elementary that has nice homes in their budget. The area, often called the Polo Fields, is west Fairfax County Parkway and South of Sunrise Valley Drive.


Quote:
Originally Posted by ICS67 View Post
Langston Hughes Intermediate and South Lakes High are perfectly fine; I personally know graduates of both who have gone on to the University of Virginia, USC, and the U.S. Air Force Academy.
I agree; Reston kids I know are going or have gone to University of Virginia, Virginia Tech, Yale, Rensselaer Polytechnic Institute (Ph.D.), Northwestern, George Mason, Embry-Riddle Aeronautical University and University of Miami.

Quote:
Originally Posted by ICS67 View Post
And if you get a SFH, you will discover the joys of dealing with the Reston Association's Design and Review Board, which God used as his role model when He (or is it now She?) created the term obsessive-compulsive.
I have had several interactions with Reston's Design Review Board and all have been positive experiences. I have done a complete re-do of exterior including roof, siding, windows, deck, patio, walkway, front porch, tree removal, and landscaping all approved with no problem. The deck and patio had several "features" that did not conform with the rules set out by Reston Association. I have also be allowed to remove trees without planting new trees, as the reason I was taking them out was over crowding.
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Old 05-26-2018, 01:17 PM
 
1,142 posts, read 971,394 times
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Fairfax City would be a great option for your family. Very small town feel. Good schools including Woodson. You could get a lot more for your buck compared to Vienna. The traffic wouldn’t be bad to work either.
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Old 05-26-2018, 08:19 PM
 
Location: Alexandria, VA - Kingstowne Subdivision
392 posts, read 511,670 times
Reputation: 366
Here's a cool little chart I made to show the appreciation trends for the past 10 years for 50+ zip codes in our area.

You read the chart from left to right.
1. Zip Code
2. 2008 average sales price
3. 2017 average sales price
4. 10-year appreciation
5. Price Increase in Decrease over that time period

I used data from MRIS to create this chart. Hopefully, this information will help you make an informed decision.

20120 $370,549.74 $463,237.52 25.01% $92,687.78
20121 $302,121.16 $367,445.63 21.62% $65,324.47
20124 $633,861.60 $664,611.31 4.85% $30,749.71
20151 $370,268.15 $491,878.39 32.84% $121,610.24
20170 $281,515.10 $484,717.89 72.18% $203,202.79
20171 $479,895.25 $584,451.73 21.79% $104,556.48
20190 $366,619.09 $421,122.80 14.87% $54,503.71
20191 $330,012.16 $429,226.10 30.06% $99,213.94
20194 $539,772.79 $539,218.10 -.1% ($554.69)
22003 $366,783.75 $497,276.57 35.58% $130,492.82
22015 $377,740.93 $491,636.73 30.15% $113,895.80
22027 $720,869.33 $937,595.24 30.06% $216,725.90
22030 $466,230.38 $543,587.51 16.59% $77,357.13
22031 $443,497.55 $554,303.46 24.98% $110,805.91
22032 $450,954.05 $563,748.09 25.01% $112,794.05
22033 $422,058.11 $471,253.02 11.66% $49,194.91
22039 $771,819.83 $808,236.75 4.72% $36,416.93
22041 $337,141.05 $386,814.02 14.73% $49,672.97
22042 $379,518.26 $506,932.35 33.57% $127,414.09
22043 $484,812.74 $667,315.47 37.64% $182,502.73
22044 $422,030.60 $496,639.40 17.68% $74,608.80
22046 $569,862.59 $764,412.35 34.14% $194,549.76
22060 $531,690.91 $556,588.24 4.68% $24,897.33
22066 $1,186,401.57 $1,194,993.90 .72% $8,592.33
22079 $401,234.15 $493,059.90 22.89% $91,825.75
22101 $1,146,279.50 $1,328,928.46 15.93% $182,648.96
22102 $828,720.99 $760,101.38 -8.28% ($68,619.61)
22124 $710,248.48 $699,493.27 -1.51% ($10,755.20)
22150 $354,453.31 $480,509.77 35.56% $126,056.46
22151 $377,224.70 $491,055.88 30.18% $113,831.19
22152 $365,507.42 $434,647.36 18.92% $69,139.94
22153 $390,826.57 $506,986.08 29.72% $116,159.51
22180 $581,515.93 $835,132.44 43.61% $253,616.51
22181 $607,697.35 $720,797.98 18.61% $113,100.63
22182 $754,581.68 $885,977.30 17.41% $131,395.63
22201 $518,314.06 $615,467.99 18.74% $97,153.94
22202 $498,099.78 $590,857.66 18.62% $92,757.88
22203 $450,956.58 $502,489.90 11.43% $51,533.33
22204 $349,628.68 $486,613.11 39.18% $136,984.44
22205 $696,615.74 $901,155.38 29.36% $204,539.64
22206 $384,905.01 $435,941.31 13.26% $51,036.30
22207 $824,145.39 $1,048,307.99 27.2% $224,162.60
22209 $643,579.91 $691,397.60 7.43% $47,817.70
22213 $766,506.51 $901,465.30 17.61% $134,958.79
22301 $563,883.58 $771,273.14 36.78% $207,389.56
22302 $425,312.23 $449,821.55 5.76% $24,509.32
22303 $300,738.24 $380,064.65 26.38% $79,326.41
22304 $372,383.77 $397,655.99 6.79% $25,272.22
22305 $436,203.64 $594,724.71 36.34% $158,521.08
22306 $368,889.12 $434,982.63 17.92% $66,093.51
22307 $481,313.67 $530,663.42 10.25% $49,349.75
22308 $659,909.59 $712,130.56 7.91% $52,220.97
22309 $300,227.74 $427,899.62 42.53% $127,671.89
22310 $388,466.38 $452,491.93 16.48% $64,025.55
22311 $472,518.32 $481,032.39 1.8% $8,514.06
22312 $354,198.57 $396,379.62 11.91% $42,181.05
22314 $607,458.78 $721,368.19 18.75% $113,909.42
22315 $416,128.96 $461,744.21 10.96% $45,615.25
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Old 05-27-2018, 01:45 PM
 
1,276 posts, read 2,061,667 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Abraham Walker View Post
Here's a cool little chart I made to show the appreciation trends for the past 10 years for 50+ zip codes in our area.
Useful of course, but not a guarantee in any way. Inflation was also ~12% from 2008-2017, so be sure to knock that off the 10-year appreciation rate. The stock market returned about 200% (after inflation) during that same time period.

Many homes built during the height of bubble (especially in PWC) are still not selling for what they were once "worth," and probably won't for a long time now that they are 15 years old. Zip 20136 is an appreciation graveyard....guarantee nobody who bought there in 2005 was thinking they'd be listing for less in 2018 (and that includes all the realtors too)...

PW10220240...sold for $630K in 2006...listed for $560K (with a new roof) today...that's not a cherry pick either pretty standard for that area
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Old 05-28-2018, 09:44 AM
 
Location: Alexandria, VA - Kingstowne Subdivision
392 posts, read 511,670 times
Reputation: 366
Quote:
Originally Posted by boyd888 View Post
Useful of course, but not a guarantee in any way. Inflation was also ~12% from 2008-2017, so be sure to knock that off the 10-year appreciation rate. The stock market returned about 200% (after inflation) during that same time period.
Thanks for your comment.

I never considered adjusting for inflation.

What is required in my calculations to make that adjustment? I could add a new column to my data to make it useful to anyone reading.
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