If Amazon hits, will you stay or cash out? (Herndon: real estate market, rental homes)

[NC211]

If Amazon hits here, and the result is a large uptick in housing demand and prices, would you stay or would you cash out and head elsewhere?

Me? I am thinking that if Amazon hits where I think it might (Dulles), and we see a notable run-up in our home's value and demand to the point where I could sell it and replicate it elsewhere (say, Charlotte) with mostly cash, then we'll have a family decision to make. I can do my job from other markets, I don't have to be here in DC.

It'll be interesting to see what happens in this regard. If those who paid say $700k for their home find themselves able to sell it for say $1.2m due to intense demand, would you take the money and go elsewhere debt free? I think I would. I wonder how long the Amazon effect would last before normalizing back down, and I wonder how real estate taxes would jump as homes start to sell at higher than anticipated numbers. I think I might want to avoid that tax increase myself if I could.

[NOVA_guy]

Not to be a downer but I don’t think it’s going to do that much to the market. Of course, things will go up but our job market already has tons of high paying six-figure jobs, for places like DC, NYC or Boston, I don’t think Amazon will cause the prices to go up that much or go up more than they already were going to.

Now if they go to North Carolina or any other cheap or low CoL metro, that’s a different story.

[ACWhite]

Don’t forget that there are other locations Amazon is considering in the metro area. If they choose one of those it may not have much impact on the Dulles area.

[LuvVA]

Originally Posted by NC211

If those who paid say $700k for their home find themselves able to sell it for say $1.2m due to intense demand, would you take the money and go elsewhere debt free?

I think this is exaggerated too much. I don't think it will go that high.

If it does, I might give a thought about moving elsewhere.

[Flamingo13]

I can't even imagine that IF Amazon would move to the area (other locations in the Metro area are up for consideration also) - that housing would shoot up even nearly that much.

[leighland]

Although IT types make salaries comparable to Fed salaries, the median salary in $28K. The $$ places like Herndon want are the taxes collected from the employees but most especially the taxes from increased support businesses that Amazonians will need (Think dry cleaners, fast food, gyms, gas stations).

I live in Town of Herndon, 2,5 miles between both new Metro stations and 3+ miles to proposed Dulles sites (which have Herndon FFX County addresses)

We plan to cash out and get outta here in a decade so I'm split.
pro: higher TH values
con: too many people driving to school, work and errands

I lived in Falls Church, now called "Merrifield" (yes I know its always been called Merrifield} and it morphed so fast from busy in 2008 to so much traffic and people so fast!! Yuck.


[url]https://www.bloomberg.com/gadfly/articles/2018-04-19/amazon-is-defined-by-billions-median-salary-is-28-446[/url]

[NC211]

I know there are other locations under consideration. I'm just playing the "what if" game here. Personally, I think it's Dulles. But we'll all have to wait and see.


I don't know if it'll go that high or not. Would be a huge leap. But when you read about what Amazon did to Seattle's cost of living, and think about our already tight housing supply, it does make you wonder what might happen. Might not too.


In my situation, I bought a fixer-upper for about $0.70 on the dollar three years ago now. I've been fixing it up, and I am really wondering if if if if Amazon does indeed hit at the Dulles site, if I might be in a situation where rising tides lift all boats to the point of reconsidering my zip code options.

[RecessionCasualty]

I don't think Amazon is going to make such a drastic difference in the home prices. But if for some crazy reason it did we would keep it only because we're still stuck here. This is where the jobs are- at least for us.

[Abraham Walker]

I think Amazon is going to cause a massive shift in home values.

Look at the current inventory levels.

We're at less than 2 months supply of homes.

Where will the people live?

Everybody isn't interested in a 1-hour commute both ways.

California coast is an excellent example of what happens when supply and demand affect the real estate market. Some economist believes that prices in California are 20% higher than expected because people with money do not care about economist expectations.

We're also seeing more landlords sell their rental homes and an increase in vacant lots being sold in the area. These are signs that the market is doing well.

Add more people to the market and you have an increase in prices.

Not to mention, builders in the area are not building enough homes to cover demand.

[LuvVA]

I strongly believe Amazon will pick NoVa for their second HQ.....

I also want this to happen.