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Old 11-27-2018, 01:39 PM
 
Location: Beautiful and sanitary DC
1,485 posts, read 2,156,245 times
Reputation: 1378

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Quote:
Originally Posted by Middlin View Post
Interesting, I didn't realize the percentage was that high. My friends and co-workers that are in their 50's ALL say they will move out of the area when they retire.
However, that's a national statistic -- across most of the US, housing prices aren't high enough to compensate retirees for the time and effort of a move. That's certainly the case for most Boomer homeowners living in places like Fairfax County.

Quote:
Originally Posted by Abraham Walker View Post
Also, if we lived in a world ruled by logic, every condo with elevators would be filled to the brim with parents of adult aged kids.
This is a golden (ha) opportunity for local jurisdictions to approve more age-friendly elevator condos! That would free up more large houses for young families, or even for redevelopment.
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Old 11-27-2018, 02:53 PM
 
1,188 posts, read 1,819,073 times
Reputation: 979
Arlington's housing market is already irrational because the land is worth so much more than the houses. Ramblers go for $800K because you are competing with 'tear down and replace with giant home' companies that don't care if they have to spend another $20K for a lot. Even homes on lots too small to rebuild on get their prices inflated by this practice.



If you are old and living in Arlington, you don't need the half a million jobs and 200% yearly housing appreciation people seem to think is coming with Amazon. You put your house up for auction with no inspections, contingencies, or anything and wait for the all cash offers to start rolling in. It's that nuts. Plenty of people moving away and renting their homes out for a nice steady cash flow as well (especially close to the metros).
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Old 11-27-2018, 03:14 PM
 
Location: Williamsburg, VA
3,498 posts, read 1,599,020 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ACWhite View Post
I’m citing statistics for retirees as a group. While some retirees move, most do not. It’s great that you are happy but you likely wanted a community like Williamsburg for non financial reasons as well. For people who want to stay in the metro area, my point is that Arl. homeowners likely won’t move to Loudoun from Arlington, and most won’t move to Florida, etc., though some will. People like to stay near their friends, their churches/synagogues, their doctors, where they pursue their hobbies, etc., so if they can afford it, most do.

Regarding moving, let’s say you own a house in Arlington that goes up to $1 million in value after the Amazon effect, if it happens. You will pay multiple thousands of dollars to fix it up for sale, then at least $50000 to sell it. You’ll spend time and money looking for and buying a new house. Packing and moving will cost thousands, then you may have repairs and upgrades in the new place. Transfer taxes will be charged. It’s very easy to spend >$100000 on the whole process. If you are, say, 65, let’s assume you pay property taxes for 25 more years. Those taxes would have to go UP to be $4000 more per year beyond what they would have been, for this move to make any financial sense from the standpoint of property taxes, let alone quality of life or other considerations. I don’t think that will happen.
I get it, we have different opinions. That's cool. Just wanted to point out my point wasn't that most people will move from Arlington, only that I think there will be enough to make an impact on house prices in Ashburn. Which was what the OP wanted to know.

Re: our reason to sell our house and move away. I never said the high property taxes were the only reason. However the taxes, along with our ability to sell a pricey property, were two important factors in our decision to move.

As for how expensive it is to move, you're entitled to your opinion but that wasn't our experience. Was it expensive to move? Sure. But we didn't spend thousands to pack/move. Maybe some people spend that much, but it cost us $1320. Had a great experience with My Guys movers (see my thread in the General Moving forum if you'd like details). We did not "pay multiple thousands of dollars to fix it up for sale, then at least $50000 to sell it". We did spend some money, but not anywhere near that much. We did spend time and money to look for and buy our new house, but considering how much we made from the sale of our house it was more than worth it. Regarding your point "It’s very easy to spend >$100000 on the whole process" It's also easy to spend a lot less than that.

Regarding the idea that people won't move because they want to be near friends, doctors, etc. I hear you on that point. We felt that way for a long time, but what we discovered is when you live in a transitional area like northern Virginia, it becomes moot. A lot of our friends moved, and we made new ones, anyway. People come, people go, welcome to Nova. Not only that, some of our friends who had moved away from the old neighborhood now visit us where we moved. We needed to find new doctors and dentists anyway, because one retired, one died, and two moved. We've gone through 5 primary care physicians since moving there a little more than 20 years ago. It really wasn't that different to get new doctors yet again after moving here. Besides, if someone is only moving from Arlington to Ashburn they can keep their doctor. Lots of people do. The same sort of thing happened with favorite local businesses. Some closed or moved, plus we discovered many had counterparts in our new town. I can understand the appeal of wanting to stay in a neighborhood, and I agree that many people will feel that way. But I also think many will want to take advantage of the home prices right now and move, like we did.

Last edited by Piney Creek; 11-27-2018 at 04:18 PM..
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Old 11-29-2018, 03:26 PM
 
5,071 posts, read 8,617,441 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Abraham Walker View Post
How would HQ2 affect the number of kids in a given area without the number of available houses increasing?

Is Arlington planning more housing developments?

If so, where is there enough land to support this development?

It's too early to tell if this news will spark builders to increase the number of new construction properties they place on the market. Prices are pretty high as it is and builders have not forgotten about 2007 - 2008.

The more likely scenario is HQ2 employees will work in National Landing and commute to their homes throughout the DMV area.
Older residents without children cashing out and selling to families with school-age children (yes, a lot of older people age in place, but if the price is high enough some will take the money and run), and higher-income families with school-age children outbidding younger residents to live in apartments are two such mechanisms. Adding more housing units is a third.

Yes, HQ2 employees will commute to residences throughout the DMV area, but HQ2 will likely exacerbate capacity issues that APS is soon to confront (and would be confronting even if HQ2 had been awarded to Omaha or Denver).
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Old 11-29-2018, 08:53 PM
 
Location: Ashburn-Virginia
3 posts, read 2,409 times
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Although Ashburn is “out in the sticks” it was recently rated by Money Magazine as the second most desirable place to live in the USA. That fact plus the opening of the Silver line will have a greater impact on home prices than HQ2.
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Old 11-30-2018, 04:19 AM
 
1,688 posts, read 1,347,249 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by Gfhermes View Post
Although Ashburn is “out in the sticks” it was recently rated by Money Magazine as the second most desirable place to live in the USA. That fact plus the opening of the Silver line will have a greater impact on home prices than HQ2.
I’ve always said Ashburn is nice and I like it, but someone commuting to CC? That’d be a pretty bad commute. People forget CC is on the other end of the region, it’d be different if we’re talking Tysons or Reston.
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Old 11-30-2018, 06:21 AM
 
Location: Washington, DC
2,839 posts, read 1,431,592 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by NOVA_guy View Post
I’ve always said Ashburn is nice and I like it, but someone commuting to CC? That’d be a pretty bad commute. People forget CC is on the other end of the region, it’d be different if we’re talking Tysons or Reston.
It sucks but it's doable. When I lived in Brambleton, it would take about an hour from the front door to midtown DC taking the Loudoun County bus. With the Metro coming in soon, you just have to add a time buffer on your commute to CC/DC to make sure you get there at a good time. But I see the Metro out there easily being a game-changer.
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Old 11-30-2018, 08:14 AM
 
Location: The Port City is rising.
8,772 posts, read 10,676,132 times
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Quote:
Originally Posted by ACWhite View Post
According to Katie Cristol, the projections are that the number of children added to the Arl Co school system will be small. This is because, as someone posted previously, many new Amazonians will live in Fairfax or somewhere else; only about 16% will likely live in Arlington. And most of those, like current residents, will not have school age children.
Place all Amazon employees who create new demand for housing (new to the region, or existing in the region who move because of their new job) into three buckets.

A. No kids, prefer multifamily or TH. B. Kids, insist on SFH. C. Kids, willing to live in multifamily (there are of course people with no kids who want a detached SFH - lets ignore them for now, as lets also ignore families with kids who prever private schools) (note also I assume that everyone with kids old enough to want a SFH is concerned with schools - some people may want a SFH for their toddler, but may defer taking schools into account in their residential location decisions, wisely or not)

A will likely locate in Arlington or Alexandria or DC. There will be lots of new housing built right in National Landing that will accommodate them, plus they will enter a market with new construction elsewhere in Arlington and Alexandria, and in DC

B. Most will end up in Fairfax (or City of Falls Church, or City of Fairfax). Some will end up in North Arlington, and a few in the "better" zones in City of Alexandria. Where they will likely mostly replace existing families with children, but may also replace empty nesters. Little net school impact.

C. Almost certainly few of these will choose Alexandria or South Arlington, where schools are not sought after enough that UMC families will choose to live in multifamily. Most likely place they would locate would be North Arlington - where there is new construction (some may choose City of Falls Church or the McLean section of Fairfax). But how many 0f these folks are there really going to be, among the 25,000 new employees? I don't know. I don't think anyone knows now.

There will also of course be employees of related business, VTech, firms that locate to be close to VTech etc. But they will not all be in CC/PC so will have at least slightly different commute patterns and thus residential patterns.
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Old 11-30-2018, 11:02 AM
 
Location: Falls Church, Fairfax County
4,833 posts, read 2,877,396 times
Reputation: 5893
Quote:
Originally Posted by Gfhermes View Post
Although Ashburn is “out in the sticks” it was recently rated by Money Magazine as the second most desirable place to live in the USA. That fact plus the opening of the Silver line will have a greater impact on home prices than HQ2.
Ashburn has never been a place I think fondly about. I have been there as a destination and had friends that lived there but for me it is in general just taint.



Taint quite Tysons and taint quite Leesburg, just somewhere in the middle.
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Old 11-30-2018, 11:26 AM
 
Location: The Port City is rising.
8,772 posts, read 10,676,132 times
Reputation: 2498
Quote:
Originally Posted by Old Guard View Post
Ashburn has never been a place I think fondly about. I have been there as a destination and had friends that lived there but for me it is in general just taint.

Taint quite Tysons and taint quite Leesburg, just somewhere in the middle.
It has Old Ox brewery which is right on the W&OD trail. I do think fondly about that
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