UPDATE: September 2008 Fairfax County Real Estate Bubble ** Prices Plunge 25% in past 12 months (sales, rentals)

[mojo_1979]

September 2008 home sales data is now available. The median price of all homes sold in September 2008 was $326,000. Prices haven't been this low since February 2004.

Fairfax County Historical Real Estate Prices

Fairfax County VA *** Year-over-year median price comparison of all homes sold.

*** 2008 *** 2007 *** Change
Sep / 326,000 / 435,000 / -25.06%
Aug / 375,000 / 478,750 / -21.67%
Jul / 379,950 / 480,000 / -20.84%
Jun / 412,500 / 490,000 / -15.82%
May / 399,000 / 460,000 / -13.26%
Apr / 400,000 / 474,200 / -15.65%
Mar / 395,000 / 456,000 / -13.38%
Feb / 405,000 / 448,000 / -9.78%
Jan / 395,000 / 456,000 / -13.20%

*** 2007 *** 2006 *** Change
Dec / 430,000 / 450,000 / -4.44%
Nov / 420,000 / 462,000 / -9.24%
Oct / 425,000 / 460,000 / -7.61%
Sep / 435,000 / 445,000 / -2.25%
Aug / 478,750 / 469,000 / +2.08%
Jul / 480,000 / 485,000 / -1.03%
Jun / 490,000 / 500,000 / -2.00%
May / 460,000 / 487,000 / -5.59%
Apr / 474,000 / 480,000 / -1.21%
Mar / 456,000 / 477,000 / -4.40%
Feb / 448,000 / 469,000 / -4.47%
Jan / 456,000 / 450,000 / +1.39%

*** 2006 *** 2005 *** Change
Dec / 450,000 / 484,000 / -7.05%
Nov / 462,000 / 482,000 / -3.99%
Oct / 460,000 / 489,000 / -6.02%
Sep / 445,000 / 485,000 / -8.25%
Aug / 469,000 / 500,000 / -6.20%
Jul / 485,000 / 503,000 / -3.58%
Jun / 500,000 / 500,000 / 0.00%
May / 487,000 / 489,000 / -0.50%
Apr / 480,000 / 458,000 / +4.80%
Mar / 477,000 / 441,000 / +8.14%
Feb / 469,000 / 416,000 / +12.69%
Jan / 450,000 / 408,000 / +10.60%

*** 2005 *** 2004 *** Change
Dec / 484,000 / 410,000 / +18.80%
Nov / 482,000 / 395,000 / +22.03%
Oct / 489,000 / 348,000 / +33.45%
Sep / 485,000 / 349,000 / +22.89%
Aug / 500,000 / 380,000 / +18.60%
Jul / 503,000 / 351,000 / +21.30%
Jun / 500,000 / 380,000 / +16.58%
May / 489,000 / 359,000 / +29.8%
Apr / 458,000 / 365,000 / +25.48%
Mar / 441,000 / 360,000 / +22.53%
Feb / 416,000 / 327,000 / +27.40%
Jan / 408,000 / 325,000 / +25.69%

*** 2004 *** 2003 *** Change
Dec / 410,000 / 339,000 / +20.94%
Nov / 395,000 / 315,575 / +25.17%
Oct / 395,000 / 312,000 / +26.60%
Sep / 395,000 / 315,000 / +25.40%
Aug / 395,000 / 332,000 / +18.98%
Jul / 397,000 / 325,000 / +22.15%
Jun / 400,000 / 325,000 / +23.08%
May / 385,750 / 315,000 / +22.46%
Apr / 365,000 / 299,900 / +21.71%
Mar / 360,000 / 289,900 / +24.18%
Feb / 326,000 / 274,900 / +18.59%
Jan / 325,000 / 274,950 / +18.20%

*** 2003 *** 2002 *** Change
Dec / 339,000 / 280,000 / +21.07%
Nov / 315,575 / 265,000 / +19.08%
Oct / 312,000 / 265,900 / +17.34%
Sep / 315,000 / 274,999 / +25.40%
Aug / 332,000 / 289,900 / +14.52%
Jul / 325,000 / 282,700 / +14.96%
Jun / 325,000 / 286,600 / +13.40%
May / 315,000 / 272,300 / +15.68%
Apr / 299,900 / 260,000 / +15.35%
Mar / 289,900 / 269,990 / +7.37%
Feb / 274,900 / 245,000 / +12.20%
Jan / 274,950 / 250,000 / +9.98%

*** 2002 *** 2001 *** Change
Dec / 280,000 / 255,000 / +9.80%
Nov / 265,000 / 236,900 / +11.86%
Oct / 265,900 / 235,950 / +12.69%
Sep / 274,999 / 240,000 / +14.58%
Aug / 289,900 / 250,000 / +15.96%
Jul / 282,700 / 244,900 / +15.43%
Jun / 286,600 / 245,000 / +16.98%
May / 272,300 / 234,450 / +16.14%
Apr / 260,000 / 226,000 / +15.04%
Mar / 269,990 / 230,000 / +17.39%
Feb / 245,000 / 220,000 / +11.36%
Jan / 250,000 / 218,875 / +14.22%

*** 2001 *** 2000 *** Change
Dec / 255,000 / 230,000 / +9.18%
Nov / 236,900 / 210,000 / +11.90%
Oct / 235,950 / 203,850 / +15.28%
Sep / 240,000 / 202,000 / +16.34%
Aug / 250,000 / 214,997 / +16.23%
Jul / 244,900 / 213,000 / +12.63%
Jun / 245,000 / 218,000 / +10.05%
May / 234,450 / 212,700 / +10.48%
Apr / 226,000 / 197,000 / +13.71%
Mar / 230,000 / 195,000 / +17.95%
Feb / 220,000 / 198,000 / +11.11%
Jan / 218,875 / 190,000 / +13.16%

*** 2000 *** 1999 *** Change
Dec / 230,000 / 197,500 / +14.94%
Nov / 210,000 / 191,000 / +9.95%
Oct / 203,850 / 189,890 / +7.96%
Sep / 202,000 / 194,000 / +3.09%
Aug / 214,997 / 207,750 / +3.49%
Jul / 213,000 / 209,000 / +1.87%
Jun / 218,000 / 209,000 / +3.83%
May / 212,700 / 193,700 / +9.68%
Apr / 197,000 / 192,000 / +1.56%
Mar / 195,000 / 189,000 / +5.24%
Feb / 198,000 / 184,900 / +8.17%
Jan / 190,000 / 190,000 / +0.00%

MRIS Statistics

[VRE332]

How's the renting going?

[car54]

YAYYYY....it's an exciting time to be alive, folks!

I dumped all my rentals during the bubble....and it's hard to resist not getting back into it now, but I think prices have a LONG way to go before they hit bottom. I did buy (steal) a property recently....but I'm thinking we'll see '80s home prices before it's over. Then, I'll get back into it in a BIG way. I actually miss those 3:00 am calls from tenants!

Oh, and the stock market! I have bought a TON of stock in the past week....great companies at prices not seen in YEARS. I'm having a ball....this stuff is way more fun than Vegas! (I hated to see that 900 point rally today, though)

[mojo_1979]

Originally Posted by VRE332

How's the renting going?

It's great. I pay slightly less than $2000 per month for a home in a very nice neighborhood. Houses in this neighborhood have been sitting on the market for over a year with asking prices as high as $600k.

So I could buy a home in my neighborhood for ~$3500 per month or rent it for ~$2000 and save the rest. It's not a hard choice for me!

[VRE332]

Originally Posted by mojo_1979

It's great. I pay slightly less than $2000 per month for a home in a very nice neighborhood. Houses in this neighborhood have been sitting on the market for over a year with asking prices as high as $600k.

So I could buy a home in my neighborhood for ~$3500 per month or rent it for ~$2000 and save the rest. It's not a hard choice for me!

When you get to retirement age, how do you plan on paying rent? I figured out I could have enough cash to pay property taxes, and expenses, have a decent car

[mojo_1979]

Originally Posted by VRE332

When you get to retirement age, how do you plan on paying rent? I figured out I could have enough cash to pay property taxes, and expenses, have a decent car

I'm not going to waste my time presenting the details of my investment portfolio to a stranger on a forum. But I will say this...

All of the extra money that I'm saving each month from renting is being saved and/or invested. I have a nice chunk of change already. Also, why do you assume I plan on renting for the rest of my life? I'm not yet 30 years old. I will buy within the next 3 years, after prices have finished (or nearly finished) their decline.

By waiting, there is ZERO risk of prices suddenly increasing right now. If I buy today however, I am guaranteed that my home will lose value. Ben Bernanke just told Congress this morning that we're in for a 'protracted slowdown' and that Congress should consider yet another economic stimulus package.

In summary, if by renting, my bank account steadily grows every month, and if I can buy the same exact house for possibly $100k less in 2 years, why on earth would I purchase today?

[car54]

You have the right idea, mojo. Owning isn't all it's cracked up to be.

I think I'd be renting if I hadn't inherited my house (a unique property that WILL stay in the family)....it's a more free lifestyle not being tied down by a house, especially in this market. Plus I spend most of my free time on the boat dockside at the marina anyway.

Of course, I would still invest in real estate to make money even if I was renting my principal residence.

Did you see that article about Prince William real estate the other day? Investors are snapping up those $50K townhouses like crazy. I've been approached about joining a group that is investing in that....but I don't know if I want to be a slum lord at this stage in my life! LOL

[scimitar12]

Originally Posted by mojo_1979

I'm not going to waste my time presenting the details of my investment portfolio to a stranger on a forum. But I will say this...

All of the extra money that I'm saving each month from renting is being saved and/or invested. I have a nice chunk of change already. Also, why do you assume I plan on renting for the rest of my life? I'm not yet 30 years old. I will buy within the next 3 years, after prices have finished (or nearly finished) their decline.

By waiting, there is ZERO risk of prices suddenly increasing right now. If I buy today however, I am guaranteed that my home will lose value. Ben Bernanke just told Congress this morning that we're in for a 'protracted slowdown' and that Congress should consider yet another economic stimulus package.

In summary, if by renting, my bank account steadily grows every month, and if I can buy the same exact house for possibly $100k less in 2 years, why on earth would I purchase today?

I think you are right. We bought a townhome in Cascades earlier this year. I wanted to wait and rent for a couple of years as I really think prices will continue to drop, but my wife wanted a home really bad. The place we bought was assessed two years earlier for $145K more than what we paid for it, but I bet the the place has lost another $30K since we bought it.

[VRE332]

Originally Posted by mojo_1979

I'm not going to waste my time presenting the details of my investment portfolio to a stranger on a forum. But I will say this...

All of the extra money that I'm saving each month from renting is being saved and/or invested. I have a nice chunk of change already. Also, why do you assume I plan on renting for the rest of my life? I'm not yet 30 years old. I will buy within the next 3 years, after prices have finished (or nearly finished) their decline.

By waiting, there is ZERO risk of prices suddenly increasing right now. If I buy today however, I am guaranteed that my home will lose value. Ben Bernanke just told Congress this morning that we're in for a 'protracted slowdown' and that Congress should consider yet another economic stimulus package.

In summary, if by renting, my bank account steadily grows every month, and if I can buy the same exact house for possibly $100k less in 2 years, why on earth would I purchase today?

What about the mortgage deduction savings?

[mojo_1979]

Originally Posted by VRE332

What about the mortgage deduction savings?

You're joking right? Pay an extra $1500 per month (buy vs. rent) to "save" $500 a month on my taxes? No thanks.