Salaries and Housing in NOVA (Arlington, McLean: foreclosure, credit card, lawyers)

[ScranBarre]

Originally Posted by novaslasher

I did some research on median incomes and single family home housing prices on Fairfax County's government website. My goal was to determine when the housing bubble in NoVA would likely fully deflate, but I think this also answers the OP's question.

If you look at this chart on the ratio of Fairfax County Average Home Prices compared to Fairfax median income, you will see that as far back as 1994 we have been above a 3.0 ratio. Bankers generally consider a safe housing price to be between 2 and 3.0. That means if your ratio is between these numbers, you can likely afford the house and aren't at heavy risk of default or being house poor. Unfortunately, NoVA has been in the danger area for a looooong time. I think this is probably attributed to the typical high cost of living in east or west coast regions.

The housing bubble that took off around 2004 greatly changed things and the housing expense ratio went crazy around the peak of the bubble in 2007. It inflated to a disgustingly high 5.1 in 2007. As of 2009, things have deflated a bit to around 4.5. This is still way too high.

So to answer your question, a typical NoVA household simply can't afford a typical single family home in this area without being house poor or sinking in debt.

First of all, welcome to our forum! Secondly, thank you for doing some hard analysis that proves that my suspicion is correct in that either salaries in NoVA need to soar or that housing prices need to crash. Considering NoVA is already the wealthiest area of the nation, it is not realistic to expect salaries to increase, so we all know where that leaves us. It might be beneficial for more people to consider renting in NoVA in order to "boycott" the housing prices until the excessive supply coupled with the limited demand causes this eventual crash to occur so that the typical NoVA family can "comfortably" afford a single-family home again. That sucks for those who have just purchased homes who probably don't want to hear people like me advocating for their home's value to depreciate, but if you made the choice to pay for a home with an over inflated value then that was the gamble you made I suppose.

[mdcrim]

ScranBarre-

Don't have time to read through all the posts so I have to ask- Why, exactly, are you bothering with a move to NOVA?

[ScranBarre]

Originally Posted by mdcrim

ScranBarre-

Don't have time to read through all the posts so I have to ask- Why, exactly, are you bothering with a move to NOVA?

Why not? I'm 75% favorable to the area and 25% negative towards it. Just because I'm moving here doesn't mean that I have to love everything about it. It is the choice of the "shiny happy people bubble" on here to ignore the positive comments I make in order to slam me for the negatives, hoping to eliminate any "threat" to their otherwise Utopian society. My point has been substantiated by others that numerous people on the NoVA sub-forum can't handle honest criticism very well because they really don't have much exposure to it after mostly just getting positive reviews and commentary. People on many other forums encounter much nastier people than me and can debate their points with civil counter-points or can choose to ignore what is being presented. It's been a long time since I've been on a sub-forum where I've been the subject of so much name-calling just because people would rather not debate what I have to say.

If I have a concern/complaint about the area, then I don't see why I ought to keep it reserved, especially if it may benefit someone else considering a move to the area. I just read a thread on the CT forum about one member who visited Greenville, SC after that forum's members over-hyped it to the extreme, only to leave disappointed and upset that he was deceived because just like the NoVA forum, the posters on the Greenville sub-forum rally behind each other to "attack" anyone with a divergent viewpoint to their own instead of letting that point sink in and then countering it, like most people would do in a debate. The people on the Greenville sub-forum did that CT member a grave disservice by not permitting the free thought of people with anything other than rave, glowing reviews of the area, and now I hope they feel guilty for wasting that poor gentleman's time. The same applies here. NoVA met my preconceived expectations during my first-time visit, which was that it was an above-average but not "great" area, especially for the "bang for the buck factor" (of which there really isn't much of). Judging by some people on this forum you'd think NoVA was all sunshine and puppies. It's not. When people on this forum try to tell me to "shut up and go away" all they are doing is reinforcing the fact that they are not being fair to those who want more WELL-ROUNDED reviews of the area other than just 100% "fluff" and "paradise."

The points I've made over the past several weeks have NOT been out-of-line (lack of mass transit options into DC, high housing prices in relation to salaries, lack of "soul" with much of the architecture, lack of sidewalks, people who have unrealistic expectations for public schools, etc.) and it's unfortunate that so many view them as such. For every negative thing I've pointed out I can also point out MANY positives (milder winter climate, plentiful vegetation/lush landscaping, drivers who know how to use a blinker, people with intellect, Smithsonians, Downtown Leesburg, Reston Town Center, resilient economy, etc., etc.)

If nothing else it is a bit suspect that so many will ignore anything nice I have to say and just pounce upon the negatives. I wonder if when I post all of my photo tours if I'll get "nicely done" or "how could you do a tour and forget to snap a photo of that building two blocks over?" Sometimes, people, there are going to be others who disagree with you. You can either attempt to debate them, as I do, or you can just stone-wall with "go away troll." The choice is yours to make, but the latter makes people think less of you for not having the guts to debate something that you find to be erroneous or blatantly false.

[springfieldva]

So, after one weekend visit to parts of this area and some forum chat, you are now the resident expert on all things NoVa? I can see why you consider yourself to be such a quick study. I've lived in this area for 30 some years and I still haven't seen everything yet...

[ScranBarre]

Originally Posted by springfieldva

So, after one weekend visit to parts of this area and some forum chat, you are now the resident expert on all things NoVa? I can see why you consider yourself to be such a quick study. I've lived in this area for 30 some years and I still haven't seen everything yet...

You're all also very excellent at inserting words in my mouth, as I never professed myself to be an area "expert." Show me that evidence.

[springfieldva]

Originally Posted by ScranBarre

You're all also very excellent at inserting words in my mouth, as I never professed myself to be an area "expert." Show me that evidence.

Trust me, I am not trying to put *more* words into your mouth!

[claremarie]

You can certainly buy "a" house for less than $600K, but if you want a single family home inside the Beltway with 3-4 BR, in a good school district, that does not need $100K + in repairs or renovations, $600K is a good ballpark number to work with.

[claremarie]

"My main complaint is that I don't see NoVA as being unique enough for my own personal tastes to justify the exorbitant housing prices in relation to the what are already, in many cases, GENEROUS salaries, meaning that high-earners on a national scale still can't even keep up with the cost-of-living."

Then don't move here.
Simple.

[novaslasher]

Originally Posted by ScranBarre

First of all, welcome to our forum! Secondly, thank you for doing some hard analysis that proves that my suspicion is correct in that either salaries in NoVA need to soar or that housing prices need to crash. Considering NoVA is already the wealthiest area of the nation, it is not realistic to expect salaries to increase, so we all know where that leaves us. It might be beneficial for more people to consider renting in NoVA in order to "boycott" the housing prices until the excessive supply coupled with the limited demand causes this eventual crash to occur so that the typical NoVA family can "comfortably" afford a single-family home again. That sucks for those who have just purchased homes who probably don't want to hear people like me advocating for their home's value to depreciate, but if you made the choice to pay for a home with an over inflated value then that was the gamble you made I suppose.

I'm originally from Houston so I'm familiar with a fair cost of living. I will grant you that NoVA/DC is a much nicer place to live than Houston. But I moved to the DC area, not for the atmosphere, but for a good career opportunity. No one can deny that NoVA has a bad cost of living and terrible housing prices (other then those who are in real estate and trying to sell you something or those who can't admit that they paid too much for their homes). But the trade-off is this is a great place for your career and a fun place to be.

Now when I marry and get ready to have a family, I might take my aerospace career back to Houston and cash it in for a decent cost of living for my new family.

Honestly, I don't think boycotting the real estate market here will do much good. Even after the bubble deflates, housing will still be expensive here relative to income (as the chart shows). So you either have to suck it up and lower your expectations like so many of the posters here have done (buying a townhome/condo or move out to the exurbs and commute), rent, or move elsewhere. Renting is probably a decent idea since rents have to track with salary rather then inflated mortgage debt.

[ScranBarre]

Originally Posted by springfieldva

Trust me, I am not trying to put *more* words into your mouth!

Heaven forbid someone gives another member the "time of day" to read something of value just because it exceeds one paragraph, right?

Originally Posted by claremarie

Then don't move here.
Simple.

So instead of trying to strategize ways to IMPROVE NoVA you'd rather ignore the problems and hope they go away? How will they ever be fixed then? Haven't some of you ever heard the old adage "the squeaky wheel gets the grease?" I'm obviously NOT the only one who doesn't think that the housing market is in-check. If people in the two highest-earning counties in the nation can't afford to purchase homes, then what does that tell you?