Reality check on 1M+ price point..anyone buying? (McLean, Oakton: real estate, 2009)

[935dc]

With prices and rates so low, we've been looking to move to the Vienna/Oakton area (also considering Great Falls and Fairfax Station) to be closer to family. We orig targeted Mclean but still think its a bit of a budget stretch for what we want (5/6 br, ~1ac+) for our family. If you were looking LONG TERM and planned to take advantage of the current downturn to find a great home in 1M-1.2M price point would you hesitate to pull the trigger now?

Some of these places we've seen have been sitting for upwards of a 6mo- 1yr or so, and the prospect of finding a deal NOW and taking the chance seems almost too good to pass up. I guess the key here is the place would be our home for awhile, so the focus is more on the neighborhood, schools for our kids, etc. Anyone still say stay WAIT as the bloodletting isnt over and prices are due to tumble more?

Ive heard some agents say that ppl are just looking for ANY offer now to include contingencies on selling current home. I check the assessments, and imo some are still a bit inflated. I was contemplating 10-15% UNDER asking in some cases, for example maybe 850-900 for a 1M property. I know it depends on the sellers situation as well, but looking for reality check here. Anyone looking/buying/bought in this price point recently?

Thanks for any feedback.

[tankdude]

Originally Posted by 935dc

With prices and rates so low, we've been looking to move to the Vienna/Oakton area (also considering Great Falls and Fairfax Station) to be closer to family. We orig targeted Mclean but still think its a bit of a budget stretch for what we want (5/6 br, ~1ac+) for our family. If you were looking LONG TERM and planned to take advantage of the current downturn to find a great home in 1M-1.2M price point would you hesitate to pull the trigger now?

Some of these places we've seen have been sitting for upwards of a 6mo- 1yr or so, and the prospect of finding a deal NOW and taking the chance seems almost too good to pass up. I guess the key here is the place would be our home for awhile, so the focus is more on the neighborhood, schools for our kids, etc. Anyone still say stay WAIT as the bloodletting isnt over and prices are due to tumble more?

Ive heard some agents say that ppl are just looking for ANY offer now to include contingencies on selling current home. I check the assessments, and imo some are still a bit inflated. I was contemplating 10-15% UNDER asking in some cases, for example maybe 850-900 for a 1M property. I know it depends on the sellers situation as well, but looking for reality check here. Anyone looking/buying/bought in this price point recently?

Thanks for any feedback.

You won't find anything in McLean or Great Falls with 5-6 beds and 1+ acre for 1 mil.

You could offer a lower price for a home, but be ready to lose it as you're not the only buyer on the market.

[claremarie]

Last April, we sold our house in McLean around that price point in about a week. We got an initial lowball offer (around $800K) that we ignored, and then two full-price offers the following day. Granted, that was last April, but it's important not to get hung up on the asking price, unless the house has been sitting for more than 2-3 months with no price reductions. At this price point, you should be working with a realtor who can give you solid advice on market values. Sometimes the asking price is inflated, but other times (like ours) it's spot-on, and you might lose a great home by making a lowball offer. A well-connected realtor will also know when homes are coming on the market, and can get you in early. Our realtor found our McLean house through connections, and we bought it before it actually came on the market. She stayed in touch with us over the years, and when she learned that we were planning to relocate, essentially had a local buyer already lined up.
A house is more than a investment. If you find a house you love, and the price is within reason, go for it. Over the long term, it's unlikely that you'll lose money in the communities you've targeted.

[DC Oldtimer]

I'd wait till the 2009 real estate assessments come out so you can see how each home held/did not hold its value (according to the county). With that info in hand, no, I would not hesitate to buy now IF you find your dream home in a neighborhood that is weathering the downturn well (relatively speaking, that is).

Good luck.

(I expected to have my assessment by now. I assume it will be any day, and that the info will be posted to the Fairfax County Tax Adminstration website at the same time).

[935dc]

Claremarie and DC Oldtimer thanks for the advice. Good point on the updated tax assessments as well.

Originally Posted by tankdude

You won't find anything in McLean or Great Falls with 5-6 beds and 1+ acre for 1 mil.

Id beg to differ since we have already looked at some. In fact, we are scheduled to look at two in GF with 5BRs and each has ~2 acres. The ASKING for the two properties are < 1M (850k and 950k). Mclean is another story, but we've seen some at 1.2M that fit, but was on ~3/4 acre which is OK. I just dont want a nice house with no yard for the kids.

Thats the point of my post. I would never think I could get that for 1M, but with the buyers market and houses sitting, who knows what you might get. Now its just a matter of finding the "right" one

[Skapov]

Be careful about low-balling with your offer, because on average homes are selling for 96% of list price. Not sure about the higher priced homes, but from what I understand the prices have pretty much stabalized after the big 30% drop in 2008. My prediction is that 2009 may have only a mild decline, perhaps 5-10%, if that.

[tankdude]

Originally Posted by 935dc

Claremarie and DC Oldtimer thanks for the advice. Good point on the updated tax assessments as well.



Id beg to differ since we have already looked at some. In fact, we are scheduled to look at two in GF with 5BRs and each has ~2 acres. The ASKING for the two properties are < 1M (850k and 950k). Mclean is another story, but we've seen some at 1.2M that fit, but was on ~3/4 acre which is OK. I just dont want a nice house with no yard for the kids.

Thats the point of my post. I would never think I could get that for 1M, but with the buyers market and houses sitting, who knows what you might get. Now its just a matter of finding the "right" one

Talk to me after you close that deal on the 5-6 BR on 1 acre for less than 1 mil.

Great Falls has the highest median value for homes in this area, but that doesn't mean that all their homes are expensive. I'm pretty sure you won't find a 5-6 BR on 1 acre that's newer in Great Falls.

Great Falls is kind of country, and the more expensive homes are those closer to McLean.

[vlh71]

On average, housing prices are still a bit lower than the tax assessments. Look at tax assessments as well as comps over the previous 3 months to gage an accurate and fair offer. Most home owners are not expecting full price offers. I think they consider this when pricing their homes. If you are interested in discussing further, let me know. I have GREAT resources that would be essential to your process.

[tankdude]

Originally Posted by vlh71

On average, housing prices are still a bit lower than the tax assessments. Look at tax assessments as well as comps over the previous 3 months to gage an accurate and fair offer. Most home owners are not expecting full price offers. I think they consider this when pricing their homes. If you are interested in discussing further, let me know. I have GREAT resources that would be essential to your process.

Right now, it's a buyer's market, because it's the slowest time of the real estate season even in this slow market.

Come spring time, there will be more buyers and more competition for that home you like.