Relationship between Tax Assessments and Sales Price/Bank Appraisals (Fairfax: short sales, foreclosures)

[Denton56]

So? It is still selling for WAY over the assessed price. I thought that was the discussion here, the relationship between selling price and tax assessments, not whether the assessment had gone up or down.

Here's another one that has gone to contract at $122,000 over the tax assessment.
FX6981943 on FranklyMLS.com 10309 TAMARACK DR, VIENNA VA for $699,500 in TAMARACK Home For Sale

And another:
FX6895480 on FranklyMLS.com 1816 SAINT BONIFACE ST, VIENNA VA for $839,900 in HAWTHORNE ESTATES Home For Sale

Yet another:
FX6954963 on FranklyMLS.com 8599 CORAL GABLES LN, VIENNA VA for $775,000 in CARTERS GREEN Home For Sale

My point is, don't worry about your assessment. It often has little to do with what the house is worth on the free market. The same is true for your appraisal since appraisers know the market, much better than the tax assessors. You'll be fine.

How long is it supposed to take to get the appraisal? Aren't they usually within a few days, a week at most? When we refinanced, we learned the appraisal within that time. If I remember correctly, it was $80,000 over the tax assessment. Again, you should be fine.

[tgbwc]

Originally Posted by Denton56

So? It is still selling for WAY over the assessed price. I thought that was the discussion here, the relationship between selling price and tax assessments, not whether the assessment had gone up or down.

Right, I was agreeing with you by saying that even though the assessment had dropped a little it was still selling for way over that.

[tgbwc]

Originally Posted by Denton56

How long is it supposed to take to get the appraisal? Aren't they usually within a few days, a week at most?

I don't know. Ours was done on Friday 3/20, so I hope to hear soon.

[Denton56]

If you don't hear by Friday, call your lender. They get the appraisals too and he might have it before you do.

Good luck, I really think you'll be fine, but I sure understand your anxiety. Everything about buying houses is anxiety producing. Hang in there. It will be worth it.

[spidercharm]

Originally Posted by Denton56

Sure, no problem. The first house I told you about, that sold last summer, the one with no renovations, sold in a week:
606 Kearney Court, SW,
Vienna

Second house, some updates, sold in 11 days:
1009 Rachel Court, SW
Vienna

The third house, now under contract after 41 days on the market for something over $700,000:
613 Kearney Ct, SW
Vienna

Check out the recent sales prices of these houses and their tax assessments here, at the county website:
Fairfax County

The third house, 613 Kearney Court, hasn't gone to settlement yet, but you can see here that it is under contract, with a listing price of 131% of assessment:
FX6976045 on FranklyMLS.com 613 KEARNEY CT SW, VIENNA VA for $725,000 in PICKETT ESTATES Home For Sale

I am fairly certain that those are the only homes that have sold in the neighborhood, Pickett estates, in the last year.

Is it just my neighborhood? I'll need to look at the rest of Vienna to determine that, unless someone here knows the answer.

First two are from last year (I think) and things have changed since.

The last one seems highly suspect. It was sold for ~500k in 2005. Given what we all know market direction since, something isn't right about it. This one also belongs to Marshall Road ES which is rated at the bottom of other Vienna ES. We have to see once the sale is recorded with the county. I have seen offers being accepted 30-35% below the listing price in some cases if listing price isn't realistic (like this one)

My 2 cents: 09' assessment is your best guide. Listing price just shows seller's motivation. Negotiate below 09' assessment so that you are still in the money when 2010 assessment comes in the mail. If bank assesses the property much higher than the neighborhood sales/county assessment, they aren't doing their job..period. However, most of them are getting smarter when it comes to approving the loans.

Now, we all know how well banks have been doing their jobs lately!!! So, I wouldn't even bet a cent on their opinion.

[Denton56]

Yes, the first two were from the summer of 2008. Sorry, but things haven't changed THAT much since then. Sorry, but for the neighborhood, and previous sales, the price of $725,000 is realistic. Plus, his agent said that the contract is very close to that, something over $700,000. The owner had already told me that he wouldn't accept under $700,000. He didn't need to sell and would rent the house. He owns several homes in Vienna and Oakton. When he bought the house in 2005, it was a total mess, he had to gut every room, even lay new hardwoods. He put $100,000 into renovating it, so that sale price was low for a good reason. They were lucky to get that much. It was a disgusting dump in 2005.

Continue to my next post of more examples in Vienna of houses selling well over the assessments.

[tgbwc]

Originally Posted by Denton56

If you don't hear by Friday, call your lender. They get the appraisals too and he might have it before you do.

Good luck, I really think you'll be fine, but I sure understand your anxiety. Everything about buying houses is anxiety producing. Hang in there. It will be worth it.

This is the appraisal for the buyer of our home, so our lender wouldn't know.
We hope to hear today...maybe.

[JEB77]

Originally Posted by spidercharm

The last one seems highly suspect. It was sold for ~500k in 2005. Given what we all know market direction since, something isn't right about it. This one also belongs to Marshall Road ES which is rated at the bottom of other Vienna ES. We have to see once the sale is recorded with the county. I have seen offers being accepted 30-35% below the listing price in some cases if listing price isn't realistic (like this one)

Since Denton56 was kind enough to provide examples, perhaps you could do the same and we could all compare. Why shouldn't buyers and sellers take recent renovations to a home into account in determining a fair price? And why should a potential seller go out of his or her way to make the county tax assessors aware of recent upgrades? For the honor of paying higher taxes in the interim? If there is a contract, the house will still be appraised.

Your reference to Marshall Road ES is a bit silly; a school "at the bottom" of Vienna schools is squarely in the middle of the pack for the county schools as a whole, and the Pickett Estates homes are also in the highly rated Thoreau and Madison districts. Even in as test-obsessed an area as NoVa, that's a pretty darn good combination. You can find similar houses at around the same price in the Shouse Village/Towlston Village or Sun Valley areas where the students attend more highly rated elementary schools (Colvin Run and Wolftrap), but then you'd be closer to busy Route 7 or the Dulles Toll Road, and further away from both Metro and the main Vienna shopping area. Different people weigh these advantages and disadvantages differently, but buyers consistently like these areas, and the demand for houses in the $600-800K price range remains high.

[spidercharm]

Originally Posted by JEB77

Since Denton56 was kind enough to provide examples, perhaps you could do the same and we could all compare.

Sure. Following two are just samples from same neighborhood. There were several more in a similar category. But, these two were in good condition from personal experience. Listing was 25% below assessment from franklymls. They were on the market for quite some time and very likely sold for below listing.

2808 YEONAS DR
2602 BOWLING GREEN DR

On your Marshall road ES comment, it is ranked lower across the county ES (673rd of 1122 in Fairfax County ES) along with Cunningham. Commenting on school is always controversial. It is not to say that area isn't great. But, test scores and rankings tell the story.

[ZakAttack]

In PW the 09 assessments are all over the place, but are probably closer to what you might get for it on the open market than the Fairfax County assessments. With that being said, however, our brand new PW home we just bought got assessed 80K below what we just paid, so this is clearly not a good example. Our same model is selling like hotcakes in our neighborhood, for what we paid and slightly more. But I'm not going to complain about the assessment, as it will mean lower taxes for me.