When are more houses coming on the market? (Alexandria, Manassas: real estate market, foreclosures)

[Denton56]

In some areas, we have struck bottom. That will continue to spread over the next year.

[Gottasay]

There was a pent-up supply of buyers waiting out the bubble, so that's why you see so much activity, these may be buyers from as far back as '04 eager to strike, thinking we've hit the bottom and the fact that interest rates are low, 1st time home buyer incentives, and the looming threat of downpayment requirements to go up April 1st (not sure what happened to that one).

Also, check Realtytrac.com or Fairfax County to get an idea of how many foreclosures there are in your target area. WWW.realtytrac.com. In February 2009, there were 32 in the 22150 zip code: Springfield Foreclosure Rate and Foreclosure Activity Information - RealtyTrac, indicating the foreclosure situation there is red hot.

Also, I just read that nationwide, delinquencies are up 50 percent from last year Mortgage delinquencies soar in the U.S. | Special Coverage | Reuters -- this foreclosure situation is far from over. I keep sticking to the fact that current values in N.Va are reflective of the subprime/Alt-ARM mess and are bound to go down. More inventory is bound to come on the market. On March 31st, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac lifted their ban on foreclosure sales and evictions.

Whatever you do, don't get caught up in bubble hysteria -- you may end up upside down.

[welby]

The market is pretty stagnant, so you won't see a ton of new inventory anytime soon. Once the remaining ARMS and balloons left over from the boom hit that will change, I think. You're looking in a popular area, so don't be surprised if the new homes that appear go quickly.

I would also question your idea of buying right now. IMO, if you plan to be in the home a minimum of 10 year, it's probably a good idea. Anything less and you should put off buying until some of the major negative economic indicators settle themselves. You'll likely get a better deal in a depressed market then anyway, and you won't be buying into a falling market.

[cvkevents]

It seems as thought the major consensus is that the bottom has hit for Prince William County and not for Fairfax County. I know that most of the inventory that is $400,000 and above isn't really moving, where around $300,000 it is flying!

It is hard to decide whether to buy now or wait. I guess it something perfect comes along, then we will buy, if not, then we will wait. We should be in the home for quiet some time, or we can always rent.

Is it better to buy big and not move...or buy a townhouse and plan on moving up?

Thanks so much for all the replies. I enjoy seeing what everyone elses thoughts are.

[Mike From NIU]

My wife and I could have gone for a townhouse this year and then tried moving up, but rather than intentionally go through the home buying process twice (not to mention having to sell the townhome), we decided to wait one more year to see how the market and our finances go. We would rather wait a year or two and get a SFH than buy 2 places in a matter of 3-5 years. We have a pretty nice rental situation, though, so it makes the decision easier. We do live in Prince William County, and will look there to buy.

[Skapov]

Originally Posted by Gottasay

There was a pent-up supply of buyers waiting out the bubble, so that's why you see so much activity, these may be buyers from as far back as '04 eager to strike, thinking we've hit the bottom and the fact that interest rates are low, 1st time home buyer incentives, and the looming threat of downpayment requirements to go up April 1st (not sure what happened to that one).

Also, check Realtytrac.com or Fairfax County to get an idea of how many foreclosures there are in your target area. WWW.realtytrac.com. In February 2009, there were 32 in the 22150 zip code: Springfield Foreclosure Rate and Foreclosure Activity Information - RealtyTrac, indicating the foreclosure situation there is red hot.

But that zip code that you mention above had a lot of boarding houses for illegals, so you can't really compare it to zip codes 22015 (Burke) and 22152 (West Springfield). People can wait for the so-called "bottom" all they want, it doesn't change the fact that homes in Burke/West Springfield are getting bids after only mere days being on the market! We lost out to a home in January, and the home we finally did get had only been on the market 8 days before we made our offer. Just a cautionary tale that there is a risk to waiting...

[tgbwc]

Originally Posted by Skapov

But that zip code that you mention above had a lot of boarding houses for illegals, so you can't really compare it to zip codes 22015 (Burke) and 22152 (West Springfield). People can wait for the so-called "bottom" all they want, it doesn't change the fact that homes in Burke/West Springfield are getting bids after only mere days being on the market! We lost out to a home in January, and the home we finally did get had only been on the market 8 days before we made our offer. Just a cautionary tale that there is a risk to waiting...

I agree. We are moving into 22152. We figured if we were going to "jump", now was the time to do it considering the interest rates and we weren't upside down in the house we were selling. Plus, we are going to save a ton of time commuting.

[car54]

Originally Posted by Skapov

But that zip code that you mention above had a lot of boarding houses for illegals...

This situation is improving. I read the foreclosure notices in the Post everyday and I'm not kidding, it seems like in 75% or more of them, the borrowers in default have hispanic surnames. The boarding house closes when the bank pops the house!

I sold one of my rentals to a hispanic lady during the boom and she got 2 crazy mortgages to finance it ($535K). $5000 a month payments for an unupdated 50's rambler. She did okay for about 2 years until the construction crash hit and her boarders moved on and left her holding the bag for the mortgages. Bank took it and resold it to a young family for $340K.

Bank lost $200K on that house....multiply that by millions of foreclosed houses and that's why we're in the mess we're in.....

[ScranBarre]

Are we sure those aforementioned people are "illegals?" I ask this very innocently because here in Pennsylvania far too many people equivocate "Latino" or "Hispanic" to be "illegal." I also ask this because a few people have cautioned me about the "illegals hanging out in Herndon." Did people actually verify their citizenship status or just drive by and pass judgment?

[car54]

Originally Posted by ScranBarre

Are we sure those aforementioned people are "illegals?" I ask this very innocently because here in Pennsylvania far too many people equivocate "Latino" or "Hispanic" to be "illegal." I also ask this because a few people have cautioned me about the "illegals hanging out in Herndon." Did people actually verify their citizenship status or just drive by and pass judgment?

Don't be silly, of course nobody verifies their immigration status....apparently including the Federal agencies charged with the task.

But let's get real....the immigrants you see standing around on the street are day laborers. Day laborers are almost without exception undocumented. If they had documents, they would be working for mainstream employers (who are required to check the status of prospective employees), not fly-by-night contractors in pick-up trucks who pay no taxes on the worker and sometimes don't even pay the worker.

These are the same guys that "hot bunk" in boarding houses....they operate in an underground economy with no verifiable income....what mainstream landlord is going to rent to them?

This may offend your liberal sensibilities, but it's reality, pal.

PS: I drive a FCPS school bus up and down Little River Turnpike in Annandale four times a day. I see the day laborers before dawn and I see some of the same guys still standing at 3:00 pm....long after one would think they would have given up on being picked up for the day. And this is in all kinds of weather. It really makes you think of how bad things must be in thier Countries for standing all day in a parking lot to be an improvement...