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Old 06-18-2009, 04:34 PM
 
80 posts, read 209,316 times
Reputation: 33
Manassas is listed on the chart also. Look at the buttons at the top.
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Old 06-19-2009, 06:13 AM
 
577 posts, read 951,541 times
Reputation: 500
Quote:
Originally Posted by typical guy View Post
I am not a realtor. You must realize that low end real estate has had the big declines in prices because of foreclosures. Current starter home owners cannot "move up" because3 their home values have come down so much. If you watch the real estate inventory then you'll notice that 90% of the inventory in PWC below 200k has contracts against it. Once you get above 300k contracts decline steeply.

<snip>

The real estate with lines through them have contracts against them. As you can see, the vast majority of low end property has contracts against it. The only thing having a hard time selling is high end property and those still need to decline significantly because no one will be able to "move up" to them for a decade or more at current and future expected low end prices. While I fully expect low end real estate to appreciate in the future, these homes will not go up enough to allow people to purchase these homes. In other words, your home used to be worth 450k and is now worth 250k. The home you would have "moved up" to was worth 650k but now the people with these homes still think their homes are worth 650k or even 550k, neither of which is correct, their home is now worth 400 or 450k. So I don't think there will be further price declines at the low end only at mid to high end properties. Those properties have owners that are still blind as to the real values of their homes.
I see your point better now. You are right, I think entry level homes will probably stabilize somewhere around the price points they are at right now. From your earlier posts, it seemed like you were implying that NoVA's price deflation had finished for all pricing levels, not just entry level homes. Instead, it seems that you agree that there is still some decline to go, at least for mid- and upper-level priced homes.

While the trend chart is very interesting, I still want to see what happens to PWC inventory this fall and winter. Many mortgage brokers did a total moratorium on foreclosures until March, and given how long it takes for a home to foreclose, those properties would probably only start to hit the market now. Investors have snapped up a ton of properties already, and may or may not have the capacity to absorb another couple thousand homes (and banks are even stricter with investment properties than they are for homebuyers, which means TIGHT). Anyway, we'll see what happens.
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Old 06-21-2009, 06:21 AM
 
Location: Chesterfield, VA
1,146 posts, read 2,943,552 times
Reputation: 445
I'm going to chime in here... what we are seeing a little further south in the Richmond market is that sellers are paying closing costs for the first-time homebuyer, who is now having to use their cash on down payments.
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Old 06-23-2009, 03:12 PM
 
Location: In the woods
3,286 posts, read 5,015,681 times
Reputation: 1403
Quote:
Originally Posted by Tish Thompson View Post
The reason we're seeing buyers pay for their own closing is that it's a sellers market. Inventory is down and in order to compete, all that really matters to sellers is the bottom line. In order to remain competitive, buyers are paying their own closing costs.
Amen to that! I put my house in Loudoun County on the market and received multiple offers in 4 days. Finally went with the person who offered $7,000.00 OVER the Asking Price and would cover Closing Costs. The bids were very, very competitive and someone obviously advised the 'winner' about what is going on in the D.C. area with houses.
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Old 06-26-2009, 04:19 PM
 
85 posts, read 122,877 times
Reputation: 25
Quote:
Originally Posted by typical guy View Post
This is not correct. Closing costs are routinely paid by the BUYER and the realitor fees are routinely paid by the SELLER. The market, particularly in Northern Virginia is no longer a buyers market. If you have been waiting for the market to get "even better" then it's too late. Most markets are getting close to 2005 numbers for available real estate - particularly prince william county which has seen the biggest price declines. Northern Virginia's bubble burst is almost done. Maryland still has a long way to go though.
"Northern Virginia's bubble burst is almost done" - oh yeah, we will see about that.

I trust numbers more - prices continue to decline - YoY - trend is very clear and I don't see what data you predict this from. Even when it does finally bottom (tough to predict - but, we are nowhere near), prices will stay flat for few more years.

You are right in that prices are getting to 2005 range. However, if you analyze % increases YoY from 2000-2007 in the metro region- it's easy to see that 2005 was not much below the peak of the bubble.

Last edited by spidercharm; 06-26-2009 at 05:05 PM..
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