So Just How Quickly IS NoVA Growing? (Richmond, Arlington: houses, employment)

[ScranBarre]

I just found a link on the General U.S. forum that has an interactive map that breaks down population growth from 1980-2008 by state, county, or metropolitan area. I had fun poking around with this for a while, and I thought since growth/sprawl has been a "hot button" issue on this sub-forum ever since my big fat Italian yap showed up that I'd share some of the analysis with you. Bear in mind that the independent cities of Falls Church, Manassas, Fredericksburg, and Alexandria are considered "counties" for the purpose of this data. I excluded the 1980 numbers for Fairfax City because the data just didn't make sense. I only included the Washington Metropolitan Area-affiliated parts of our sub-forum.


Alexandria City

1980 Population: 103,147
2008 Population: 143,885 (+39.50%)
Ranked No. 43 of 134 Counties in VA
Ranked No. 733 of 3,139 Counties in U.S.


Arlington County

1980 Population: 152,445
2008 Population: 209,969 (+37.73%)
Ranked No. 44 of 134 Counties in VA
Ranked No. 764 of 3,139 Counties in U.S.


Clarke County

1980 Population: 9,965
2008 Population: 14,458 (+45.09%)
Ranked No. 38 of 134 Counties in VA
Ranked No. 651 of 3,139 Counties in U.S.


Fairfax City

2008 Population: 23,844


Fairfax County

1980 Population: 617,423
2008 Population: 1,015,300 (+64.44%)
Ranked No. 30 of 134 Counties in VA
Ranked 433 of 3,139 Counties in U.S.


Falls Church City

1980 Population: 9,011
2008 Population: 11,169 (+23.95%)
Ranked No. 62 of 134 Counties in VA
Ranked No. 1,118 of 3,139 Counties in U.S.


Fauquier County

1980 Population: 35,816
2008 Population: 66,839 (+86.62%)
Ranked No. 18 of 134 Counties in VA
Ranked No. 282 of 3,139 Counties in U.S.


Fredericksburg City

1980 Population: 17,083
2008 Population: 22,818 (+33.57%)
Ranked No. 48 of 134 Counties in VA
Ranked No. 858 of 3,139 Counties in U.S.


Loudoun County

1980 Population: 57,754
2008 Population: 289,995 (+402.12%)
Ranked No. 1 of 134 Counties in VA
Ranked No. 10 of 3,139 Counties in U.S.


Manassas City

1980 Population: 15,668
2008 Population: 35,205 (124.69%)
Ranked No. 8 of 134 Counties in VA
Ranked No. 149 of 3,139 Counties in U.S.


Prince William County

1980 Population: 144,367
2008 Population: 364,734 (+152.64%)
Ranked No. 5 of 134 Counties in VA
Ranked No. 98 of 3,139 Counties in U.S.


Spotsylvania County

1980 Population: 32,674
2008 Population: 120,031 (+267.36%)
Ranked No. 2 of 134 Counties in VA
Ranked No. 22 of 3,139 Counties in U.S.


Stafford County

1980 Population: 40,556
2008 Population: 121,736 (+200.17%)
Ranked No. 3 of 134 Counties in VA
Ranked No. 50 of 3,139 Counties in U.S.


Warren County

1980 Population: 21,199
2008 Population: 36,663 (+72.95%)
Ranked No. 23 of 134 Counties in VA
Ranked No. 371 of 3,139 Counties in U.S.







WASHINGTON METROPOLITAN AREA

1980 Population: 4,096,060
2008 Population: 5,529,540 (+35.00%)
Ranked No. 149 of 306 Metropolitan Areas

NORTHERN VIRGINIA (NoVA)

1980 Population: 1,257,108
2008 Population: 2,476,646 (+50.76%)


At this rate if NoVA's population increases by roughly 1,250,000 every 30 years, then by 2040 NoVA may be creeping up to the neighborhood of 4,000,000 residents (especially if Culpeper County, Frederick County, Rapahannock County, and the City of Winchester are annexed by then, as I expect them to be!)

Still think we don't need to be concerned about smart growth?

[540_804]

I know this is off-topic (kinda) but I found it interesting how, for the most part, growth in the counties out-paces city growth. This is, of course, not surprising in the least, but it was interesting.

For instance, the city I grew up in (Roanoke) decreased by ~7% in that time period. Richmond, VA decreased by ~7% as well. DC also decreased by about 7%. However, all of the counties surrounding those cities grew by at least 35% (mostly in the 50-100% range)...

[ScranBarre]

Originally Posted by 540_804

I know this is off-topic (kinda) but I found it interesting how, for the most part, growth in the counties out-paces city growth. This is, of course, not surprising in the least, but it was interesting.

For instance, the city I grew up in (Roanoke) decreased by ~7% in that time period. Richmond, VA decreased by ~7% as well. DC also decreased by about 7%. However, all of the counties surrounding those cities grew by at least 35% (mostly in the 50-100% range)...

I just find it peculiar that average household sizes have decreased since 1980 and yet average housing sizes continue to expand.

[Denton56]

Originally Posted by ScranBarre

I just find it peculiar that average household sizes have decreased since 1980 and yet average housing sizes continue to expand.

Yup! Ain't America great?! We get to live better and better. Every generation lives better than their parents. Love it!

[VRE332]

Originally Posted by Denton56

Yup! Ain't America great?! We get to live better and better. Every generation lives better than their parents. Love it!

I think the demand for bigger houses shrink eventually because the cost of energy, plus the baby boomers want to live in smaller more affordable homes.

[Denton56]

Which baby boomers would that be? I am a baby boomer, and I moved to a huge ass house. Ditto my friends. Now that many are getting ready to retire, they sell their closer in houses, and move to the beach, the country, or the mountains, buying much bigger houses with much bigger lots, often on the water. You should see the boats, horses, and pools our friends have. They now have the time and the money for their hobbies, so they move to where they can raise horses, or on the water where they can play with their boats and lay in the sun.

It's a total myth that people down size when they retire. Why would they? Retiring professionals, like those who live in Fairfax county, have plenty of money to live as they choose and it's rare that they choose to go backwards to a smaller home. Like everyone else, they want to move up to bigger and better.

[jfields]

I've always agreed with what you've said about smart-growth Scran. The only thread that I really disagreed with you on was the one about Sterling Park and that didn't have anything to do with smart growth. I could defintely see sprawl extend all the way out to West Virginia within the next 20 years. When my family moved to Reston in 1986, Reston and Herndon were small suburbs and there really wasn't anything to the west except for Sterling Park and Leesburg, and those were just small towns. I think that the sprawl can be avoided if we build in already existing areas.

[NOVAmtneer82]

To also give some perspective on how far out our metro area is expanding we just have to look further west. I grew up in West Virginia (not the portion closest to DC) but spillover growth from the DC area is insane in Jefferson and Berkley Counties.

Berkeley County, home to Martinsburg (approx 90 miles west of DC) has gone from 46,775 in 1980 to 102,044 in 2008. http://recenter.tamu.edu/Data/popc/pc54003.htm

I believe the MARC train was extended out there in the late 70s so I'm assuming that really ignited it.

Jefferson County, home to Harpers Ferry and Charles Town has grown from 30,302 in 1980 to 51,615 in 2008. http://recenter.tamu.edu/Data/popc/pc54037.htm

Jefferson County is closer to job centers in the DC area than Berkeley but they enacted growth controls and zoning in many areas thus attributing to lower levels of population growth.

I didn't bother to really look any further but I can guarantee Washington County MD (home to Hagerstown) and Franklin County PA have also seen very high growth rates in that time period. Nearly all of it the result of major growth in metropolitan Washington.

[Stephen 81]

ScranBarre,

I completely agree with you that Northern Virginia needs smart growth, even if it's coming twenty years later than it should.

A few caveats about your statistics, though. Your population numbers for Arlington and Alexandria happen to start after a decade of significant population decline (Arlington had more people in 1960 than 1980, for example). When you look at the bigger picture, you'll notice that the inner "suburbs" population growth is fairly flat.

Also, places like Fairfax are pretty much built out, unless we start razing older single family areas and replacing them with smart growth. I'm not sure if that's politically feasible, for a number of reasons. But anyhow, what I am trying to say is that I think the growth rate of NoVA as a whole is slowing down. I don't think it's really fair to assume that the area will grow at the same rate it did from 1980 to 2008. There's certainly a precedent for some of the biggest boomtowns in the U.S. turning into no to negative growth areas - look at Chicago, for example. NoVA isn't going to start shedding people soon, but I doubt we are going to add another million people in 25 years.

Also...if all of our growth over the next 25 years comes from Culpeper and Spotsylvania, we're doomed. Smart growth is difficult enough to achieve in Fairfax, which is relatively close to DC and served by Metro. I don't know how you will build mass transit-friendly housing in Culpeper when there are no plans for mass transit and no major employment centers within 25 miles.

[normie]

Interesting statistics, but something to remember is that population growth is not something you can predict mathmatically. The growth from that era was the result of a mass number of companies moving here during the dot com boom and moving their employees with them. There was also a surge of companies that moved here following 911. You would need to have similar events in the next few years to continue the growth rate we had last decade.

To put it bluntly, people only move here if they've been offered a job. Let's face it, this is not California. You don't move here to become a movie star or to be near the beach.

So future growth depends on having more major companies moving here. Which means it also depends on companies being willing to pay to transfer their employees here--frankly most companies are cutting back on that expense right now. Those dot com firms learned the hard way that moving employees is expensive.

In addition, birth rates and immigration rates are down due to the economy. I don't see that changing for at least a few years. Therefore, IMO, we will continue to see a slow steady growth but not the explosive growth that we had last decade.