Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Yes, and it is the amount and logic of that premium that I have been trying to see estimated.
AFAICT there are no listings for THs in the same general area as Metrowest newer than 2002, and only one of those (and in addition to being 9 years older, I dont think it has the non transit community amenities metrowest will have). I would suggest that to get a reasonable idea of the metrowest premium one would have to adjust for either the 30 year plus difference in age between metrowest and most of what is for sale nearby, or the difference in price between the area where metrowest is, and newer areas further west, like Fair Oaks. I would suggest the best way to do that would be to look at actual sales, or in the absence of that, listings. I dont think a discussion of the reasons for the premiums for inner locations, or for newer houses, will help with that effort - the premiums are there, whatever you or I may think of the decision making of the folks willing to pay those premiums. I am not inclined to do a detailed analysis, beyond what I have done, but you should feel free to
I would hope so. But the globe-trekker mindset isn't really universal. A little arthritis, a bunion or two, maybe some knee surgery...suddenly that brisk, envigorating walk can seem like it's uphill in both directions. People who are on that side of Metro West should at least give it a test walk before signing up.
We are a pair of 50 somethings, who, two years ago, were both obese. My wife has had knee surgery in the past. walking - not globetrekking, sadly, but mainly just a mix of functional and recreational walking right here in NoVa and DC - has played a role in reducing our weights - which has in fact, relieved my wifes foot and knee complaints, and has improved our health in several different ways.
I hope the somewhat younger folks who I believe Metrowest is aimed at are at least as hardy.
Location: Chapel Hill, NC, formerly NoVA and Phila
9,775 posts, read 15,775,291 times
Reputation: 10875
There are townhouse off Hermosa on the west side of Nutley right near the Metro that are 11 years old. My daughter's friend sold one in December in the $650K range. Looking up her record on the Fairfax assessment site, it was 2100 square feet. Schools were Marshall Road/Jackson/Oakton, so I think that would be a pretty good comparison, adjusting for age of the unit, of course.
ETA: Comparing the $ figures that Nathepol posted, the sales prices at Metrowest seem pretty comparable.
not really - what I am trying to clarify is that there are two components to the "access premium" of metrowest. There is the general convenience of the area close to the Nutley entrance to I66...
66 goes right through Fair Lakes. There are multiple entrances.
Quote:
Originally Posted by brooklynborndad
...and then there is the specific premium for easy walkability. Even the Lee highway side of metrowest will be more walkable than most properties within a mile or two of Vienna metro (at least the south side - I suppose the north side may be more walkable).
It is clearly an easier walk to the Metro station from the north side, but primarily because until now, next to no development has been done immediately south of the station.
Quote:
Originally Posted by brooklynborndad
The first component includes many factors - the bus ride or short drive to the metro, AND the short drive on I66 to the beltway (which eases the total commute to Tysons, for example).
I am fairly sure that the first time they tried it, newcomers would learn that 66 to the Beltway is no way to get to Tysons from the Vienna Metro area. There are multiple quicker and easier routes.
A very large number of those who work in FFX work in Tysons, which reinforces the price gradient, at least for the I66 corridor outside the beltway.
...while undercutting the notion that demand for transit into DC is as signifcant or widespread as apparently had been believed. The great majority of employed county residents does not commute into the city and has no need for paying high premiums to live close to a mode of transit they have no regular use for. The nexus of the Fair Lakes area by contrast certainly includes Tysons, but also GMU, the county courts and government center, Fair Oaks, Reston, Herdon, and the rest of the Dulles Tech Corridor. People whose jobs are in those areas are not losing any sleep because Metro parking lots fill up by 8:00 some mornings. They are happy instead to live where they do -- in modern, green, walkable neighborhoods surrounded by a diverse array of amenities. Much like Metro West, but without the subway.
Quote:
Originally Posted by brooklynborndad
As an example there is now a TH on the market...
All the individual comps in the world are not going to have actual relevance to the question. The question again is one of comparing areas in estimating what level of premium is being charged to buyers in Metro West as the result of its proximity to Metro, and perhaps along the way what if any as the result of its advertising-driven aura and cachet.
Quote:
Originally Posted by brooklynborndad
Given THOSE comps, I think 500k for a 1450 sq foot TH, for delivery in 2012 at the earliest, and with far superior access to the metro for pedestrians, sounds to me on the conservative side.
It was noted from the outset that the prices being charged in Metro West are fair, and that people are apt to rush in to buy units at those prices. The question once again is over what they are actually paying for. Like it or not, there have been no new breakthroughs in townhouse technology over the past ten years, and there is no new definition for walkability. What are buyers in Metro West actually getting for their money by paying $500K for a smallish TH there when they could purchase a smallish TH in a place like Fair Lakes for $375K or less?
if we are trying to judge the "premium" for what metro west offers, the best way would seem to be to look for units within a mile or so, and of about the same age. But without the particular amenities (including an easy and attractive walk through the development to the metro) that metrowest offers. That was the best I could find.
The rest of that vicinity has been built out for decades, mostly in detached SFH's with a few smallish pockets and clusters of TH's tucked in here and there. There are currently no comparable communities at all within a mile or so, and clearly none that would not enjoy the very same amenities. Fair Lakes is one area where there are sizable modern townhouse communiies with similar amenities but no convenient access to Metro. Perhaps there are other areas that fit the same bill. Comparison of Metro West to such otherwise comparable communities would seem to be one way to estimate the premium that Metro West buyers are being asked to pay for being in such close proximity to Metro.
for the very considerable number of people who live along the I66 corridor who commute to Tysons, being further out is no benefit, there are no good transit options, and the alternate auto routes are problematic, IIUC.
"Problematic" does not create headlines in this area. It is well noted for its difficult commutes to anywhere. The very fact that 53% of Fairfax workers work in Fairfax County means that most of us drive individual routes. Rather than all going from Point-A to Point-B, we travel in a disorganized hodgepodge of different directions that are difficult to replicate with mass transit. That puts a lot of cars on the road and diminishes prospects for having what could be called a reverse commute. Being "further out" is meanhile a plus only to those to whom being "further out" is a plas. Their numbers are sizable. That there are other groups for whom it would not necessarily be a plus to be "further out" does not obviate the poiht.
Quote:
Originally Posted by brooklynborndad
also, my strong impression is that lots of folks who use the Orange Line to get downtown, drive along I66 to Vienna to get to the metro. I dont think the garages at the Vienna metro are mainly used by folk coming from north and south, as opposed to coming east on I66. The alternatives are to take the bus to the metro, which of course some do, but I think a lot of folks from Fair Oaks and elsewhere do not find convenient, or to drive an alternate route, which takes time as well.
No doubt those coming from the west are targeting the Vienna station while those not coming from the west do some load-balancing between Vienna, Dunn Loring, and West Falls Church as they may each find most convenient. But here you are talking principally about folks from Centreville, Chantilly, Manassas and (perhaps insanely) points even further west than those. The minority of people living in the Fair Lakes area who actually do use Metro to commute have a variety of non-66 options to reach a station, and given that 66 is a dependable nightmare, most would certainly use one.
Last edited by saganista; 06-16-2011 at 05:50 AM..
There are townhouse off Hermosa on the west side of Nutley right near the Metro that are 11 years old. My daughter's friend sold one in December in the $650K range. Looking up her record on the Fairfax assessment site, it was 2100 square feet. Schools were Marshall Road/Jackson/Oakton, so I think that would be a pretty good comparison, adjusting for age of the unit, of course. ETA: Comparing the $ figures that Nathepol posted, the sales prices at Metrowest seem pretty comparable.
Those would be in the same quadrant as the Regents Park complex that neighbors Metro West. This recent transaction works out to $310 per sqft versus the $345 per sqft being asked and paid at the far end of Metro West. That would suggest a premium of 10-12% above and beyond considerations of Metro accessibility.
[quote=saganista;19607569]"66 goes right through Fair Lakes. There are multiple entrances."
I said the NUTLEY entrance. IE the closer in one.
"I am fairly sure that the first time they tried it, newcomers would learn that 66 to the Beltway is no way to get to Tysons from the Vienna Metro area. There are multiple quicker and easier routes."
I suppose there are. My understanding is that its still easier to get to Tysons from nutley street than from Fair oaks.
[quote=saganista;19612572]...while undercutting the notion that demand for transit into DC is as signifcant or widespread as apparently had been believed. The great majority of employed county residents does not commute into the city and has no need for paying high premiums to live close to a mode of transit they have no regular use for. "
Some people live in dual income households, and want to live near transit for the one individual who must commute. Some folks are contractors/consultants, and their place of employment varies. Some folks want the option in case their job changes.
In any case the "great majority" is not relevant. Unless someone is proposing building so much TOD that the majority of housing is walkable to metro - which I think is wildly unlikely.
"The nexus of the Fair Lakes area by contrast certainly includes Tysons, but also GMU, the county courts and government center, Fair Oaks, Reston, Herdon, and the rest of the Dulles Tech Corridor. People whose jobs are in those areas are not losing any sleep because Metro parking lots fill up by 8:00 some mornings. They are happy instead to live where they do -- in modern, green, walkable neighborhoods surrounded by a diverse array of amenities. "
I am glad they are happy. Im not sure what that has to do with the price of eggs -or of a TH at Metrowest.
"All the individual comps in the world are not going to have actual relevance to the question. The question again is one of comparing areas in estimating what level of premium is being charged to buyers in Metro West as the result of its proximity to Metro, and perhaps along the way what if any as the result of its advertising-driven aura and cachet. "
I think its abundantly clear that its a combination of the premium for new housing, the premium for being closer in (metro apart) and the premium for walkability to metro. I think there is also a premium for amenities, but without detailed analysis of the Fair Oaks "comps" its hard for me to match amenity to amenity.
"It was noted from the outset that the prices being charged in Metro West are fair, and that people are apt to rush in to buy units at those prices. The question once again is over what they are actually paying for. Like it or not, there have been no new breakthroughs in townhouse technology over the past ten years"
yet newer townhouses command a premium, not just at Metrowest, but throughout the metro area, AFAICT. You can call that affectation as much as you want, use whatever rhetoric makes you feel superior to folks who pay that premium. Its an empirical fact though.
"? and there is no new definition for walkability"
There are actually considerable debates about the definition of walkability - distance vs the quality of the walk, the quality of the walk in terms of safety vs aesthetics, etc.
". What are buyers in Metro West actually getting for their money by paying $500K for a smallish TH there when they could purchase a smallish TH in a place like Fair Lakes for $375K or less?"
1. a newer house. 2. A closer in house 3 walk to the metro 4. Possibly better communitiy amenities
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.
Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.
Please register to participate in our discussions with 2 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
