Advice needed: My "moving to NoVA" post. (Housing, commute, schools, etc.) (Reston: rental, condo)

[FindingZen]

Hulud,

I believe the "common wisdom" when buying any kind of home is to hold on to it for at least five years in order to build enough equity to make a profit or at least break even. Of course, economic conditions could increase or decrease housing values independent of that.

[703]

I leave my house in Herndon at around 7:25, I drive to Herndon Monroe, which takes about 10 minutes.

So around 7:40 or so I am on the bus (car parked)
Around 8:10ish I am at WFC
8:15 I am on the metro
8:45ish I am around White House area
Its always over an hour.

ALTERNATIVE WAY:

Leave at the same time, pick up a slug at Herndon Monroe.
Share the ride to Downtown DC and I am there at around 8:30ish.
Test point is Toll Plaza by Tysons Corner
If I am under it at 8:00 AM, I will most likely be in downtown by 8:30

[703]

I am a firm believer that once you cross the beltway, you can forget about less than one hour, one way commute.

Traffic sucks, and roads are unpredictable. Someone flips a 18 wheeler on 495, and your one hour turned into 2+

Even on toll road, which flows rather nicely most of the time, anything on 495, and its a parking lot all the way to Dulles.

[703]

Common wisdom in this particular case would be to find and HOLD a steady job for at least 6+ month.
Without knowing where your job is, buying anything would not be a smart move.

[normie]

I'm retired, so my thoughts on commute times might not be the most accurate. I don't make the drive into DC at rush hour, and the time of day you drive might be a factor. The people on this forum who make that commute would know for sure.

Is there a reason you think your job will be on Capital Hill? If you don't know where it is for sure, be aware that it's just as likely to be out in the suburbs. Especially since 9/11 an increasing number of jobs have been moved away from DC.

Also, the silver line seems to be taking a long time to complete. I'm not sure if it will realistically be up and running by 2013. I hope so, but there's no guarantee.

[bmwguydc]

Originally Posted by normie

I partially disagree with you on this point. I disagree because I think the silver line will benefit nearby home values, but I agree that it might not be a dramatic increase. I definitely agree that the value of a house is not going to more than double just because of a train. Still, I think the silver line will affect the value of homes within walking distance.

Yes, there's a bus line in existence and that ought to be just as good. But to many people a bus does not have the same cachet as a train. IMO Ashburn home prices are going to benefit quite a bit from the silver line. But I guess only time will tell.

We agree. I am not saying that there's going to be a lack of appreciation, but the key is to be within walking distance, since parking is probably going to be just as much of an issue as it is on the orange line. I had the perspective that the OP was looking more to an area that was just developing and a bit "undiscovered" for a dramatic price increase.

@bmwguydc

I appreciate the insight into investment and housing values. If I only considered short-term (5 to 10 year) investment potential near the Silver Line, what would be a better purchase: a smaller TH or a mid-size SFH? If I put aside the issue of her parents coming and kids in the future, her parents might be willing to help us with the more expensive mid-size SFH (vs. the smaller TH) if the investment potential is worth it.

I would say that you should look at both, but if you can find a townhouse between RTC and Tysons, i.e., the first phase at Wiehele Avenue. The park and ride lot is supposed to be redeveloped with mixed-use commercial, residential, and parking, so there will be newer condos in the area at some point, which is traditionally how the development has proceeded around suburban Metro extension stations. A townhouse has the flexibility of appealing to couples who do not want the care of a house/yard, and you may be more likely to find one within your budget within a reasonable commute distance of the silver line. And, the other nice thing is that one would have flexibility of being in Tysons or RTC in a matter of minutes from Wiehele on the Metro, which would appeal as both are employment centers, though Tysons is a bit larger.

If you're looking for an area further out, such as an Ashburn, however, and can find a single family house in range, that might not be a bad bet. It would not be bad for a townhouse either, since the area has many amenities, and the rail will add to that, but that's the second phase of the silver line, so it would be a longer-term investment to reap the benefits of the transportation.

[claremarie]

"Find out where the job is first. IMO, your job may not be in DC."

What she said. Without knowing where you'll be working (and how much you'll be earning), you really can't make a sensible decision about housing.

[SteelCityRising]

As someone who currently resides in Reston within walking distance of the proposed Reston Parkway station (post-2013 section) and will soon be living within walking distance of the proposed Wiehle Avenue station (2013 section) I can safely say that I do feel as if property values in Reston will appreciate considerably in the coming years. Right now you can board a bus here to the West Falls Church Metrorail station, but being able to avoid the bus-to-rail hassle (or potentially even the car-to-bus stop-rail hassle) and just ride the train right into the District will be a huge bonus for many people, including myself. I'm fully prepared to pay a premium to live within proximity to Metro, as are many others.

The problem? Many of the people in Reston are NIMBYs (and proud of it). They don't think Reston "needs" the Silver Line, even though our community will otherwise become terribly congested as people continue to move to Loudoun County in the coming years and commute to or through Reston via car otherwise. Our community is essentially Sprawl City, USA, and the people here like it that way. There are all sorts of promising proposals for dense mixed-use transit-oriented developments throughout the community, but most here are gnashing their teeth over them because they think they'll ruin the "character" of Reston, which apparently consists of Macaroni Grill, Starbuck's, parking lots, and Soviet-looking architecture. If we can get the NIMBYs to shut up or die off then the sky is the limit for Reston's future. We can become Arlington or Bethesda instead of Ashburn.

[Hulud]

@ Tone509

"I believe the "common wisdom" when buying any kind of home is to hold on to it for at least five years in order to build enough equity to make a profit or at least break even. Of course, economic conditions could increase or decrease housing values independent of that."

Sounds reasonable. If we did buy small now and sell later, we would probably sell after about 7 or 8 years, so we're cutting it kinda close to the 5 year mark. And like you said, other factors will impact whether we break even or make a small profit.

@ 703

(Concerning your commute) "Its always over an hour."

I'm assuming you start work at 9am? So you have to leave 1 hr and 35 mins before your shift starts. I should probably expect the same if I come to Herndon/Reston and work on downtown DC. This information really helps me prepare myself for what may be to come, so thanks! Another aspect is cost: how much do you pay for a full day of commuting to and from work?

"Common wisdom in this particular case would be to find and HOLD a steady job for at least 6+ month."

For me that's going to be really difficult. As I previously mentioned, I probably won't even find a steady job until after I'm already there for like 6 months. My fiancee is the only one of the two of us who will know where her job is located before we make the move.

@ normie

"Is there a reason you think your job will be on Capital Hill? If you don't know where it is for sure, be aware that it's just as likely to be out in the suburbs."

No, there is no good reason to think my job will be on the Hill, I just referenced that as the furthest point I'd like to travel if coming from one of the communities further out in NoVA. I wouldn't want to be much further than wherever that 5A bus or Orange Line drops off. From what 703 is saying, it seems like I'd already need to leave over an hour and a half before my shift starts if I was working around the White House. I'm kind of hoping I do find a job in NoVA that might make for a shorter commute than going all the way to the District. But then again, a job in NoVA doesn't necessarily mean a shorter commute if the public transportation system doesn't allow it to be!

@ bmwguydc

"I would say that you should look at both, but if you can find a townhouse between RTC and Tysons, i.e., the first phase at Wiehele Avenue."

I appreciate the suggestion. It seems this might be our best bet. I check FranklyMLS, HomesDatabase, VirginiaHomeSeeker, and Google's real estate search almost daily to get a better feel for the prices. If a 2-br TH in that area is possible, that would probably work out well for us.

@ claremarie

"Without knowing where you'll be working (and how much you'll be earning), you really can't make a sensible decision about housing."

See what I said above about our job situation. :-). Renting for a year might be a wise idea so that we definitely know where we will be working, but I'd still be in the same situation of finding a place to rent without knowing where I'd be working. The only difference is signing leasing papers vs. a title/deed/whatever, so permanency is the real killer if I ended up getting a job that is not convenient to our living situation via public transit. I guess I'd have to saddle up, buy a cheap car, and expect to fight traffic Mon-Fri.

@ RestonRunner86

"I can safely say that I do feel as if property values in Reston will appreciate considerably in the coming years."

I hope this is the case after we buy! ;-)

[bmwguydc]

Redevelopment did not take off immediately when the orange line opened, and those areas of Arlington had many under utilized properties: used car lots, older car dealerships, low-density commercial, etc. Clarendon was created in the last few years, and Ballston has continued to fill in with higher density on the old car lots that used to populate stretches of Glebe and Fairfax.

Reston was a planned community, and as such, the areas near the silver line have been developed. In the immediate proximity of the station, there are plans for new development, but it's not a sure-fire proposition in a short time window 5-10 years, assuming the line opens on time. Arlington embraced density, after a while, but the same may not hold true for Reston. Falls Church has not had significant denisty increases around the Metro. Tysons, however, does have the car lots and low-density commercial development in areas along Route 7 that will likely see Tysons turning more into the edge city that it is, as opposed to a collection of buildings around 123 & 7.

Wiehele to DC is still going to be a longer trip than a straight shot on the orange line from Vienna, especially factoring the change of trains. It will be the Tysons commuter who will most benefit from the silver line because it will make a big difference in those commutes. The RTC commuter from Wiehele or other areas of Restion will not benefit too much, since the drive is not awful during rush hour right now, much the same as driving from Ballston to Rosslyn (assuming you have parking) is easier than the hassle of the train.

It's not a question as to whehter or not appreciation will occur, rather it's the time schedule, since the phase-in period for new development can take years, just as it did on other Metro line expansions. And those communities did not have the same level of existing development as Reston, with a large association that has very vocal members on both sides of any issue. All you need in Tysons, for example, is zoning approval and title to the land, whereas in Reston, one has to navigate the politics of the Reston Association. With dramatic growth in the Tysons corridor around the Metro, the potential upside in Reston is higher, but those projects have to move beyond the planning stages, to the point where people actually work in the offices and want to live close to work via transportation for the profits to be realized. For the OP, looking at a potential shorter term period, there will be a premium when the line opens, but it's not going to be a huge windfall overnight.

The Vienna-Fairfax and Dunn Loring metros have taken years to achieve the level of build-out that they currently have, for example. And the county has ambitious plans in Merrifieled with the Mosaic project, not to mention the fight over the last remaining large parcel near the Vienna-Fairfax station. So, it's not going to be as quick a profit as some might envision when they hear that new development is coming to an area. More convenient transportation options will raise values in the long run, but it also requires attracting a pool of buyers who want the house you will be trying to sell.

Near the Vienna side of the Metro, in walking distance, are older houses and townhouses. They benefited when the Metro opened, but many people don't want the older production built houses, and have favored newer condominium developments adjacent to the station, and single-family homes within a few minutes of the station, elsewhere in Oakton, Vienna, and Fairfax, as opposed to having it be necessary to walk to the station. The same is true for areas of Dunn Loring, that don't outpace other areas in the region for price, and some are within easy walking distance of the Metro.

I just want the OP to gauge the realities of development in the area with regard to Metro. Tysons is a big factor that weighs heavily in favor of silver line apprciation, since that's the commute that will be simplified for many when the line opens, but it is likely that a purchase now has already experienced part of the bump in prices since the line was announced, especially in the OP's price range. There is some more to come when the line opens, but how much depends upon the house, condition, and size relative to newer construction that's conveniently accessed via the station.

Some of the housing stock around Wiehele is older, and it can be a pain in the neck to expand anything in Reston, since it's a hassle to change the paint color (no joke). Others do not want to deal with the Reson Association, and avoid the area like the plague, because of the regulations. I know people who fled, their word, Reston for this very reason. Add to that newer housing/mixed-use developments in the immediate vicinity of the station, and the potential profit is diminished a bit because of increased supply of newer housing that meets demand. And, once the expectations are laid in the area as to design style/size/features, it can be difficult to compete with an older house into which you need to sink $$$ to remain competitive. This is not a Georgetown or an Old Town where there is largely a finite supply of housing stock, but a suburban area that's going to have redevelopment, at least in the immediate area of the station (park and ride lot). A townhouse does not have the benefit of being a tear-down, though I cannot see Reston embracing tear-down fervor with single-family houses, since even Vienna has started to impose restrictions. The other issue is rental properties that are owned by large companies, since they might be able to get rezoned for new development, and the potential windfall is on that basis, not as much for an individual owner, or for the owners of areas like Tall Oaks (an under utilized shopping center off Wiehele) where a new mixed-use developement could reap huge profits. Basically, you're not going to find a house on an acre or two that once the Metro opens and development fever catches hold would fetch a price tag that was 3-4x what you paid for it.

Ashburn, with newer housing stock, might have more significant appreciation, but it's years out, when the line reaches completion, because the commute to Tysons and RTC will be that much easier, since now it's either awful (Route 7) or expensive (Toll Road). I am not saying that the OP should discount any potential appreciation along the silver line, but weigh it as a factor relative to where your positions are located, and the type of house you want.

Perhaps an older home in Vienna (near the upper end of your price range) might be a better buy for you. Or, perhaps you might find something in parts of Fairfax, or Annandale, in the Woodson high school district that are close enough to the Vienna or Merrifield areas for the Metro to get to DC and Tysons without driving, once the lines are fully operational.