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Honolulu’s rail transit project has officially plunged into renewed financial crisis, with the latest estimates showing a budget shortfall of more than $1 billion.
The cost to build the full 20-mile, 21-station transit system to Ala Moana Center from Kapolei has increased by another $832 million, according to new internal estimates released this week by the Honolulu Authority for Rapid Transportation.
The contractor overseeing Honolulu rail for the federal government believes the new, local cost projections released this week showing an $832 million price increase are too low and likely to climb, according to project board members.
The new numbers boost the estimated cost of the troubled project to $9.9 billion.
During private meetings held this week, staff with Hill International said the draft numbers given by the Honolulu Authority for Rapid Transportation were “too optimistic,” according to HART board member Terrence Lee.
I still maintain that it was foolish to not start the rail in Honolulu (and starting deeper east from the Ala Moana Center) and eventually making its way out west if/when finances supported such an option. As of now, it wouldn't make sense to run the stretch of rail that is complete (even if the stations were all ready) as they go to places where most aren't going to spend money to go. But plenty of people travel within city centers, etc. I get that, politically, it would have been tough to start the rail in Honolulu, but sometimes politicians need to make tough decisions.
The contractor overseeing Honolulu rail for the federal government believes the new, local cost projections released this week showing an $832 million price increase are too low and likely to climb, according to project board members.
The new numbers boost the estimated cost of the troubled project to $9.9 billion.
During private meetings held this week, staff with Hill International said the draft numbers given by the Honolulu Authority for Rapid Transportation were “too optimistic,” according to HART board member Terrence Lee.
This is nothing new, and it's not limited to Honolulu. Major infrastructure projects are routinely underbid, and their potential utilization is routinely over-estimated, because the players in this highly cynical game know that this is the only way that they'll gain initial approval. They don't announce the cost increases until the streets are already torn up for construction, and people howl at the idea of having wasted the money up to that point if the funding increases aren't approved.
Oh, and whatever the "official" ridership projections are, you can drop them by between a half and three quarters for what the "real" numbers will be, at least in the initial years of operation. Drop them a whole lot more than that if they truncate the line at Middle Street.
At this point, it might be better to just give up on rail and use what's already been built as a busway, so that commuter buses from West Oahu can zip over the traffic until they get to Middle Street, then come down to street level to continue into downtown. That way, at least, the "last mile" problem is mitigated, and the riders would get a much faster ride (at least as far as Middle Street) than they would by using the existing roads around Pearl Harbor.
I don't think rail in and of itself was foolish. And I could support the rail if it was done right, to include starting at a location where early use could go farther in terms of helping to pay for this project (or at least getting it closer to breaking even and, thus, not needly wasting more than needs to be wasted).
This is nothing new, and it's not limited to Honolulu. Major infrastructure projects are routinely underbid, and their potential utilization is routinely over-estimated, because the players in this highly cynical game know that this is the only way that they'll gain initial approval. They don't announce the cost increases until the streets are already torn up for construction, and people howl at the idea of having wasted the money up to that point if the funding increases aren't approved.
Oh, and whatever the "official" ridership projections are, you can drop them by between a half and three quarters for what the "real" numbers will be, at least in the initial years of operation. Drop them a whole lot more than that if they truncate the line at Middle Street.
At this point, it might be better to just give up on rail and use what's already been built as a busway, so that commuter buses from West Oahu can zip over the traffic until they get to Middle Street, then come down to street level to continue into downtown. That way, at least, the "last mile" problem is mitigated, and the riders would get a much faster ride (at least as far as Middle Street) than they would by using the existing roads around Pearl Harbor.
I'm curious to know how feasible (cost-wise) such a plan is.
At this point, it might be better to just give up on rail and use what's already been built as a busway, so that commuter buses from West Oahu can zip over the traffic until they get to Middle Street, then come down to street level to continue into downtown. That way, at least, the "last mile" problem is mitigated, and the riders would get a much faster ride (at least as far as Middle Street) than they would by using the existing roads around Pearl Harbor.
While I appreciate out of the box thinking - I'm not sure it is wide enough to accommodate 2 busses moving in opposite directions safely - let alone the issues of what happens during a breakdown - and if the Feds would approve that
I'm curious to know how feasible (cost-wise) such a plan is.
In theory, all you would need to do is built entrance and exit ramps from the elevated viaduct to street level at the start, the finish, and presumably at a few intermediate locations of particular importance. In practice, I'm sure there's more to it than that. But it still may well end up being more cost-effective in terms of construction. Operationally, it would be much less expensive than running a rail system. The buses are already there (at least I assume there are commuter buses from West Oahu to downtown Honolulu; there certainly should be) so you're not adding to the cost. In fact, it should drop, because with higher travel speeds, fewer buses would need to be used to provide the same level of service. And you wouldn't need to create a network of feeder buses at the stations, because the buses that would be using the busway would serve as their own feeders.
While I appreciate out of the box thinking - I'm not sure it is wide enough to accommodate 2 busses moving in opposite directions safely - let alone the issues of what happens during a breakdown - and if the Feds would approve that
According to the National Association of City Transportation Officials, a two-way busway should be 22-24 feet wide; that is, each lane should be 11 to 12 feet wide.
Twelve feet is the width of a standard (i.e. NOT the H-1) freeway lane. A wider width of 26-28 feet for a hypothetical busway would be preferable to give a little bit of margin for error. (Thus, there would be two lanes of 12 feet plus shoulders of 1 or 2 feet on each side.) According to this, the guideway is 30 feet wide; I don't know if this includes space for guardrails along the side or not.
If a bus breaks down, other buses would pass it, just like would happen on any two-lane road.
I have no idea if the feds would approve. But according to the linked article, the Federal Transit Administration is already casting a wary eye on Honolulu's cost overruns. So it's certainly possible that they'd give favorable consideration to such a plan.
According to the National Association of City Transportation Officials, a two-way busway should be 22-24 feet wide; that is, each lane should be 11 to 12 feet wide.
Twelve feet is the width of a standard (i.e. NOT the H-1) freeway lane. A wider width of 26-28 feet for a hypothetical busway would be preferable to give a little bit of margin for error. (Thus, there would be two lanes of 12 feet plus shoulders of 1 or 2 feet on each side.) According to this, the guideway is 30 feet wide; I don't know if this includes space for guardrails along the side or not.
I don't think rail in and of itself was foolish. And I could support the rail if it was done right, to include starting at a location where early use could go farther in terms of helping to pay for this project (or at least getting it closer to breaking even and, thus, not needly wasting more than needs to be wasted).
In theory, Honolulu is a good candidate for a rail line. It is a densely populated city where most of the development exists in a fairly narrow corridor. That's exactly where rail makes the most sense.
The main users of mass transit are daily commuters (especially those who work in a large employment concentration, such as downtown), low-income workers, students, and tourists if the tourist areas are in concentrated areas. From what little I know of this project, it seems to be shortchanging these markets. It wouldn't be serving Waikiki (huge tourist and low-wage employment markets) or Manoa (large university). As for the downtown alignment, I'm not hugely familiar with the area. Would the stations be within walking distance of major concentrations of downtown office complexes? Would it be serving the low-income areas that seem to cluster along the H-1?
The theory of this thing is sound. But between the cost overruns, and the disruption to surface-level activity (I assume that the water table is too high to permit tunneling underground), and the apparent fact that it won't be serving areas that it should, I have serious doubts about the cost-effectiveness of whatever eventually gets put into service.
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