Which of the three C's do you think will be the most dominant power in all of Ohio by 2050? (Columbus: neighborhoods, calculation)

[1watertiger]

Originally Posted by chet_kinkaid

Another very important factor is the demographic profile of a metro area.A csa could be numerically larger yet have stagnant growth,a population that is getting statistically older,and that area would be less attractive to any investment,or franchise.Which of the 3c's will have the best overall numbers in 50 years?Its likely Columbus will be the largest and most dynamic msa,/possibly the largest csa also.

I disagree. We can't even predict an accurate 5 day forecast let alone 50yrs. Cleveland's booming again chet, and it already has a huge head start on cbus in almost every comparison. . I have a prediction. If the frickin president doesn't secure our southern boarder cbus will be over run with the most illegal Mexicans of the 3c's in 50 yrs !

[1watertiger]

Originally Posted by usaf_1832

Population Ain

Interesting article related to discussion in this thread.

Much more accurate way of standardizing/comparing cities .

[Cleveland_Collector]

Originally Posted by jbcmh81

Cleveland was not a small market when it gained them, and it's still large enough to keep what it has. But gaining a brand new franchise? No.

Cleveland is a medium market. Small market teams usually have 1 team (e.g., San Antonio, Jacksonville). You must face the fact that the "new" Browns are an expansion team. The franchise expansion was granted immediately due to the fact that local support is overwhelming and the market could then and now does easily handle it.

The NFL is a business, not a charity. The market at the time could still support an NFL team. Had Cleveland become a significantly smaller market and had that been the motivation for the team move, I doubt Cleveland would have a team today.

Umm, yeah... that's kind of my point. Cleveland ISN'T that smaller market. That's why the team was immediately replaced.

[Cleveland_Collector]

Originally Posted by chet_kinkaid

Another very important factor is the demographic profile of a metro area.A csa could be numerically larger yet have stagnant growth,a population that is getting statistically older,and that area would be less attractive to any investment,or franchise.Which of the 3c's will have the best overall numbers in 50 years?Its likely Columbus will be the largest and most dynamic msa,/possibly the largest csa also.

The problem with your assessment is that you aren't recognizing that Columbus grew its metropolitan area largely by annexation. It is, therefore, not concentrated. Outside of the I-270 loop, the place is essentially farm land. You are also neglecting the fact that Cleveland is currently seeing the largest dollar amount in terms of private investment of any of the 3Cs and that NEO is the states largest economic quadrant. So, clearly, the area is still attractive to investment.

Also, it is extremely difficult to know what will happen in 10 years, let alone 50. Even so, the Columbus CSA would need to maintain a growth rate that it doesn't currently have to equal that of Cleveland's by 2050. So, the likelihood of that happening is very, very small.

[jbcmh81]

Originally Posted by 1watertiger

I disagree. We can't even predict an accurate 5 day forecast let alone 50yrs. Cleveland's booming again chet, and it already has a huge head start on cbus in almost every comparison. . I have a prediction. If the frickin president doesn't secure our southern boarder cbus will be over run with the most illegal Mexicans of the 3c's in 50 yrs !

First, you're getting ahead of yourself. Yes, Cleveland is seeing a turnaround, but it's mostly still confined to Downtown and UC and a few points in between. That's a pretty small area of the entire city and it's going to take a lot more to see total losses reverse. That's unlikely before 2020. Maybe by 2030?

Second, a head start on what, exactly? The city of Columbus is already growing by double-digits and is on track to grow by around 110,000-130,000 this decade. Its Downtown is also seeing thousands of residential units under construction, not to mention that almost every single urban core neighborhood is seeing some level of revitalization, which cannot be said in Cleveland yet. Ahead on amenities and transit, sure.

Finally, Mexico is not even a top 5 nation of origin for Columbus immigrants. Columbus gets the vast majority from African, Asian and Middle Eastern nations. Also, most of the immigrants coming across lately are not Mexican, they're Guatemalan, Honduran, etc. Columbus already has the highest total and % of foreign-born residents and likely the highest total Hispanic population within the next few years if not already.

[jbcmh81]

Originally Posted by Cleveland_Collector

Cleveland is a medium market. Small market teams usually have 1 team (e.g., San Antonio, Jacksonville). You must face the fact that the "new" Browns are an expansion team. The franchise expansion was granted immediately due to the fact that local support is overwhelming and the market could then and now does easily handle it.

Umm, yeah... that's kind of my point. Cleveland ISN'T that smaller market. That's why the team was immediately replaced.

How are they an expansion team when it wasn't a new market? The Ravens were much more of an expansion.

No, I get what you're saying, I'm just making a different point than you. Yes, Cleveland is big enough right now to support an NFL team, and the other 2 pro teams it has. However, I'm saying that if Cleveland right now had no teams, it likely would not be awarded any because the leagues are not expanding and there are larger markets that would be first in line. I'm saying that times have changed greatly from when Cleveland first gained what it has. The bar is a lot higher than it used to be. Columbus will likely grow into the 14th largest city in the next 10 or so years based on its growth rate and the growth rates of cities directly ahead and directly behind it. But even so, it is extremely unlikely that it will gain any new franchise. It's not just about being big, it's about competition and saturation.

[jbcmh81]

Originally Posted by usaf_1832

Population Ain

Interesting article related to discussion in this thread.

I'm not sure exactly how they got to 355.25 square miles because it's not an exact distance out, but it's close to an 11 mile radius.

Incidentally, Columbus would still end up the largest Ohio city, with a population of about 1.1 million.

[Cleveland_Collector]

Originally Posted by jbcmh81

How are they an expansion team when it wasn't a new market? The Ravens were much more of an expansion.

It's really quite simple. Art Modell moved the team to Baltimore. Cleveland has no team. The NFL grants a group of investors led by a former minority owner an expansion franchise. Cleveland has a team again. Baltimore had a team in the 80's which moved to Indy. So, if your similar logic follows, the Ravens are a replacement rather than an expansion as well.

No, I get what you're saying, I'm just making a different point than you. Yes, Cleveland is big enough right now to support an NFL team, and the other 2 pro teams it has. However, I'm saying that if Cleveland right now had no teams, it likely would not be awarded any because the leagues are not expanding and there are larger markets that would be first in line. I'm saying that times have changed greatly from when Cleveland first gained what it has. The bar is a lot higher than it used to be. Columbus will likely grow into the 14th largest city in the next 10 or so years based on its growth rate and the growth rates of cities directly ahead and directly behind it. But even so, it is extremely unlikely that it will gain any new franchise. It's not just about being big, it's about competition and saturation.

That is an entirely unprovable statement. Besides, which larger market that doesn't already have a team would get one? They all have at least 3 and I'm pretty sure that all of them with the exception of 1 or 2 already have 4 or more professional teams.

Columbus only has its rank through annexation. If Cleveland annexed even half of the remainder of Cuyahoga County, it would have nearly a million people in it. Columbus' MSA is smaller than Cleveland and its CSA is much smaller (nearly 1 million) even though the land area is 1.5x the size. It's population density is also 1,500/sq. mi. less than Cleveland's. My guess is that this has something to do with it.

Columbus was awarded an NHL franchise about 15 years ago and it is essentially failing having operating losses throughout much of its existence. Why is that? I mean, it's supposedly in the 15th largest city in the country with low unemployment, is the only pro game in town and the closest NHL team is 200 miles away in Pittsburgh. Well, it certainly isn't because of the competition or market saturation. Perhaps, it's a function of having the smaller CSA, much lower population density and being in a smaller media market?

[Cleveland_Collector]

Originally Posted by jbcmh81

I'm not sure exactly how they got to 355.25 square miles because it's not an exact distance out, but it's close to an 11 mile radius.

Incidentally, Columbus would still end up the largest Ohio city, with a population of about 1.1 million.

Why? Because Lake Erie would make up nearly 1/2 of the radial area around downtown Cleveland?

All you have to do is compare Cuyahoga and Franklin Counties to get an accurate picture:

Cuyahoga: 1.28 million, 457 sq. mi., 2800/sq. mi. -> @ 355 sq. mi. = 994,000
Franklin: 1.16 million, 532 sq. mi., 2180/sq. mi. -> @ 355 sq. mi. = 773,900

Columbus' last official census measured it at 787,000 people which pretty much proves that the normalization is pretty darn accurate being that it is only 1.6% off of the actual value even with this loose calculation.

[Cbus76]

Originally Posted by Cleveland_Collector

Why? Because Lake Erie would make up nearly 1/2 of the radial area around downtown Cleveland?

All you have to do is compare Cuyahoga and Franklin Counties to get an accurate picture:

Cuyahoga: 1.28 million, 457 sq. mi., 2800/sq. mi. -> @ 355 sq. mi. = 994,000
Franklin: 1.16 million, 532 sq. mi., 2180/sq. mi. -> @ 355 sq. mi. = 773,900

Columbus' last official census measured it at 787,000 people which pretty much proves that the normalization is pretty darn accurate being that it is only 1.6% off of the actual value even with this loose calculation.

FYI - according to 2013 estimates Franklin County is now at 1.21 million and Cuyahoga at 1.26 million. I suspect Franklin will surpass Cuyahoga sometime in next couple years. Not sure how that impacts the numbers above.

Cuyahoga County, Ohio - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia

Franklin County, Ohio - Wikipedia, the free encyclopedia