How did Biden not win Ohio? (Cleveland, Republic: neighborhood, buses, moving)

[TXStrat]

Originally Posted by SusVelo

1. So by your logic, you must now believe that the Dem states are trying to tank the Biden economy? lol.

No, now everything is opening back up. Just two months ago, Texas was criticized for reopening, and widespread fears of a super spread incident as a result were the norm. However, the opposite occurred, cases, hospitalizations, and deaths continued to trend down. Now, everyone is opening back up, masks are gone, for the vaccinated, and as a result, the economy is beginning to bounce back.

[bjimmy24]

Originally Posted by TXStrat

No, now everything is opening back up. Just two months ago, Texas was criticized for reopening, and widespread fears of a super spread incident as a result were the norm. However, the opposite occurred, cases, hospitalizations, and deaths continued to trend down. Now, everyone is opening back up, masks are gone, for the vaccinated, and as a result, the economy is beginning to bounce back.

Most of the state remains unvaccinated, yet most of the state is not masking anymore. Curiously, it seems like the vaccinated are more unwilling to give up masking than the unvaccinated.

[SusVelo]

Originally Posted by TXStrat

No, now everything is opening back up. Just two months ago, Texas was criticized for reopening, and widespread fears of a super spread incident as a result were the norm. However, the opposite occurred, cases, hospitalizations, and deaths continued to trend down. Now, everyone is opening back up, masks are gone, for the vaccinated, and as a result, the economy is beginning to bounce back.

Did you read what you wrote?

You said liberal areas were delaying opening up.

You later said lockdowns were implemented to influence the election.

They were extended beyond that period in more Liberal areas with the express purpose of keeping the economy in tatters to influence an election.

Since liberal areas have lagged behind Trump areas, you must think they’re doing it to hurt Biden. See how your logic is faulty yet?

[ohio_peasant]

Originally Posted by bjimmy24

...Curiously, it seems like the vaccinated are more unwilling to give up masking than the unvaccinated.

That is to be expected. Nationwide, there is negative correlation, between a state's percentage of vaccinated-population, and its willingness to reopen. An example is my new state, California, which is doing resoundingly well in its vaccination rate, but the mask mandate remains in place (yes, even outdoors).

The reason for this, is that cultural and political factors affect behavior, more than medicine, economics or any other quantifiable, "evidence-based" consideration. We behave in accordance with group-identity and personal feeling, and our representatives will make decisions accordingly. We limit ourselves by fears that may be unfounded, and inversely, allow ourselves liberties that may be unfounded too.

But I don't think that this cultural and political response is so strongly contingent on which person happens to be in office (or recently out of office). Instead, by "political" I mean longstanding tribal associations and the resulting world-view.

A belief that a brighter future awaits us, if we carefully engineer it... if we institute elaborate and thorough processes, and follow them rigorously, and then, hardly anything (if anything at all) could go wrong... well, then we'll behave a certain way. The contrary view, that such a future is malign and dystopian, that nature can't be tamed and that any such efforts are futile and hubristic, will result in a contrary sort of behavior.

[As Above So Below...]

If we look at the data, Ohio is trending to the right significantly. I think Trump's brand of populism seems to be pretty popular in the state.

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/n...an-voter-index

4 of the top 5 congressional moving to the right are in Ohio.

Frankly, Texas will probably vote for a Democrat for president before Ohio does again.

[ohio_peasant]

Originally Posted by As Above So Below...

If we look at the data, Ohio is trending to the right significantly. I think Trump's brand of populism seems to be pretty popular in the state.

Agreed. With the exception of Cleveland and Columbus, Ohio's Democrats have really been of the "Reagan Democrat" sort. But the difference between 2020 and 1980 is 40 years of comparative decline in the fortunes of this demographic. The result is, shall we say, rather more hardened views and self-identity.

A charismatic left-leaning candidate can still win statewide office; Ohio isn't Utah. But it will indeed take such charisma. Short of that, color Ohio red.

[Avondalist]

I've been wondering about this, how does a state flip from blue to red. This is not just about Ohio, since Ohio was never a blue state but until recently was always competitive.

One path is for the state to burn out economically. As a result of blue state policies, the state becomes economically stagnant, then moribund, then declining. Eventually people decide to bite the bullet and embrace some milder version of the "shock therapy" eastern Europe went through in the 90s. This liberalizes the economy, dismantles social protections and privileges, and the state starts growing again.

I think Ohio might be following this path to some degree, but it applies moreso to a place like Michigan or Pennsylvania which were reliably blue and are now more competitive.

[1watertiger]

Because the people of Ohio were awake. NOT “woke”.

[robertbrianbush]

Originally Posted by Avondalist

I've been wondering about this, how does a state flip from blue to red. This is not just about Ohio, since Ohio was never a blue state but until recently was always competitive.

One path is for the state to burn out economically. As a result of blue state policies, the state becomes economically stagnant, then moribund, then declining. Eventually people decide to bite the bullet and embrace some milder version of the "shock therapy" eastern Europe went through in the 90s. This liberalizes the economy, dismantles social protections and privileges, and the state starts growing again.

I think Ohio might be following this path to some degree, but it applies moreso to a place like Michigan or Pennsylvania which were reliably blue and are now more competitive.

If a state changes it's politics due to the economy stagnating, becoming moribund, etc....then shouldn't Mississippi, Louisiana, etc be turning blue?

[jbcmh81]

Originally Posted by As Above So Below...

If we look at the data, Ohio is trending to the right significantly. I think Trump's brand of populism seems to be pretty popular in the state.

https://cookpolitical.com/analysis/n...an-voter-index

4 of the top 5 congressional moving to the right are in Ohio.

Frankly, Texas will probably vote for a Democrat for president before Ohio does again.

Rural districts are dying almost everywhere. Part of the reason they're getting more conservative is that everyone young/more liberal is moving away because there are no economic or social incentives to remain, leaving only conservatives behind. Ohio's districts that moved the most right are Appalachia and rural areas of NW and NE Ohio outside of all major population areas. These coincide with the counties that are either mostly stagnant or declining in population and economic opportunity. Columbus and some of the other major Ohio cities are capturing a lot of these movers, so they are being concentrated in smaller and smaller parts of the state.

Even though these areas are dying, they still represent a disproportionate level of power in state and federal elections. By design. I'm not convinced that this really represents the direction of the entire state, though. Major cities and suburbs are turning bluer, rural areas redder, but has the party affiliation changed all that significantly, I wonder. I think these calls that Ohio is no longer a swing state are very premature.