USA Today: Oklahoma City defies recession (Tulsa, Commerce: 2010, brokers, how much)

[happytown]

Looks like OKC is doing OK.

"Its per-capita income grew 6.9% in 2008 to $40,942, compared with a year earlier, the Commerce Department reported last week. That growth made the city No. 1 in the USA for large metro areas."

Oklahoma City defies recession - USATODAY.com

[colleeng47]

Good news for us, but let's not broadcast it too much!

[TulsaArtist]

You know, still hearing about 2008 is absurd. We all know that Oklahoma in general was doing very well in 2008 because of the high oil prices. Keep hearing positive stats for the Tulsa area in 2008 as well. 2009 is starting to wind down, I want to know whats going on now, or earlier this year, not last year. Continually patting ourselves on the shoulder with all different kinds of variations on last years statistics is getting kind of absurd, especially when we know how much things have changed since then. Its not helping us get a clear picture of how things are really going here. 2008 was not a trend from which we can extrapolate similar results to this year, it was more of a one off,,, that has long gone. The title should be "OKC (defied) recession" as in last year. Implying that 2008s numbers speak for today, isnt completely honest. We could indeed be doing very well, but last years numbers cant show that.

[okcpulse]

Originally Posted by TulsaArtist

You know, still hearing about 2008 is absurd. We all know that Oklahoma in general was doing very well in 2008 because of the high oil prices. Keep hearing positive stats for the Tulsa area in 2008 as well. 2009 is starting to wind down, I want to know whats going on now, or earlier this year, not last year. Continually patting ourselves on the shoulder with all different kinds of variations on last years statistics is getting kind of absurd, especially when we know how much things have changed since then. Its not helping us get a clear picture of how things are really going here. 2008 was not a trend from which we can extrapolate similar results to this year, it was more of a one off,,, that has long gone. The title should be "OKC (defied) recession" as in last year. Implying that 2008s numbers speak for today, isnt completely honest. We could indeed be doing very well, but last years numbers cant show that.

Well, Oklahoma and OKC did well in 2007, a year that saw oil prices at the same level they are now, and in 2008 OKC's per capita income growth wasn't much higher than in 2007.

You are correct in that we do not know this year's numbers, which won't be seen until May of 2010, but after comparing 2007 to 2008, I learned that 2008 wasn't as much of an abberation. People are getting the misconception that $145 oil prices made everyone rich. Wrong. Many brokers and oil execs hedged, because they all knew it wouldn't last.

People are also thinking that because oil dropped from $145 to $70, that the Devon Tower will be cancelled. The company was getting ready to announce plans at the time when oil is as high as it is today. Besides, these energy companies are not hung up on oil. Natural gas is also a cash cow, whose prices are... again... at 2007 levels.

[TulsaArtist]

Good point on 2007 numbers being up as well. Tulsa has also shown steady improvement over several years. However lol,,,, we werent getting the top accolades. Other cities, like Austin and Denver and many others, were booming while we were inching upwards. Then in 2008 when the recession set in in many other places, we had the oil cushion which really did help us a lot. It will be interesting to see how we fare this year and next.

One of the reasons I say these things is that I think, speaking for Tulsa in particular for thats what I know best, we should still keep pushing to diversify and "enrichen" our economies and their competitiveness on the world stage. Education/colleges, transportation, urban design, quality of life improvements, working to bring in corporate headquarters, helping to grow start up companies, etc. Tulsa especially has a tendancy to sit around and rest on its laurels and not pay attention to how the rest are pushing forward. We put in just enough effort into trying to catch up, not realizing we need to play leap frog, for as we are playing catch up, by the time we get to that "catch up point" we were aiming for, we find to our suprise that other cities have been moving ahead during that time and we have to play catch up again. The ball is always moving and our competitors arent gonna rest and wait for us.

I have heard people say they are satisfied with something like 2% growth for Tulsa, (economically and or population wise). Slow and steady is admirable and has its plusses, but when things slow down, and I am not even talking about recession type slowdowns, you have no buffer and lose too many jobs and even lose population. Which is exactly what happened to Tulsa earlier in this decade. Continuing on that cycle can be disastrous over time. Having even 4% growth would give you some buffer for the slowdowns and help cushion the occasional bad news, big company leaving, or whatever. Growing too fast has its definite problems, but a bit deeper and more robust growth mode, though when times go bad, can enable a city to vigorously rebound. I have no doubt that Austin for instance once the economy gets moving will easily outstrip OKC and Tulsa once again. I am not saying we need the growth rates they have . Just more than we (Tulsa in particular) seem to reach for.