[Johnhw2]

I made the trek from Plano Tx to Durant OK without incident. The roads were more hazardous than I expected. I saw a few accidents primiarly careless or thoughtless drivers making lane changes on a slick bridge despite the warning signs about "watch for ice on bridge". More snow in the north DFW area than in Southern Ok where I visited. The heaviest snow cover was in northern Collin County just north of Mc Kinney - around 6 inches it appeared. The road were moving super slow coming back into DFW area around 5pm last night due to icy roads... a good idea to slow down but I couldnt get to a highway spot away from other vehicles as I generally prefer.... as its the other guy's mistakes that are dangerous if you are a knowledgable slick road driver with an AWD vehicle.

Coming to work today driving Plano to Irving was more dangerous than the drive on US 75 yesterday....slick roads wtih a lot of ice covered overpasses and too much traffic lumped together for the conditions....

Thanks for the great weather updates "rocky"

[GraniteStater]

Originally Posted by rockyinyourradio

First off, Hope everyone has had a blessed Christmas despite the weather. This storm has been a headache from the start to forecast. The long and even short term model data has just not handled the projected track of this system well at all but ironically, the GFS from nearly a week out was overall not far off even though it waffled alot since then.

For now and into the first week of the New Year, we'll be dealing with below normal temperatures. which is something of a novelty with all the above average temperatures we've been so use too. We have a few more opportunities for some moisture around Friday and again early the next week but these systems won't hold a candle to the strength of the one we're dealing with now. As of now, I don't see any big chances of appreciable snow but a mix of rain and frozen precip. which will possibly include some snow may be in the picture most anywhere in the state with these next two systems, but again, amounts will be light.

The overall pattern looks cool and potentially unsettled for at least the next two weeks before we transition into a quieter, warmer pattern. If the latest long range models verify, Texas will be in for some much needed relief during this time frame as an active subtropical jetstream sends several systems into that region. My thinking is that we'll be on the northern edge of some of these disturbances so hopefully we'll see some of that moisture as well. I was out in Watonga yesterday and some of those wheat fields between there and Kingfisher looked abysmal, even worse than the winter of 2010-11. Lets hope that we can get this turned around before spring so we can have some semblance of a harvest this year.

The drought monitor looks abysmal for soil moisture in much of the area with D3 and D4 drought widespread again... Hopefully you are correct and Oklahoma begins to see some drought relief.

[rockyinyourradio]

Originally Posted by Johnhw2

I made the trek from Plano Tx to Durant OK without incident. The roads were more hazardous than I expected. I saw a few accidents primiarly careless or thoughtless drivers making lane changes on a slick bridge despite the warning signs about "watch for ice on bridge". More snow in the north DFW area than in Southern Ok where I visited. The heaviest snow cover was in northern Collin County just north of Mc Kinney - around 6 inches it appeared. The road were moving super slow coming back into DFW area around 5pm last night due to icy roads... a good idea to slow down but I couldnt get to a highway spot away from other vehicles as I generally prefer.... as its the other guy's mistakes that are dangerous if you are a knowledgable slick road driver with an AWD vehicle.

Coming to work today driving Plano to Irving was more dangerous than the drive on US 75 yesterday....slick roads wtih a lot of ice covered overpasses and too much traffic lumped together for the conditions....

Thanks for the great weather updates "rocky"

Glads to be of some help even though in the end I wasn't too accurate on this system.. then again, as I stated in one of my previous posts.. everyone was somewhat off on this as the model data just couldn't handle the low level moisture deficits. Encouraged by the latest model trends for a general .40 to .75 of an inch general rainfall setting in Sun. evening and lasting thru New Years Day. Snow and/or ice looks like if any will be confined to far northern Okla. and KS. Snowcover analysis has a good solid 60% of the continental US being snowcovered, the most I've seen in at least 10 years, and with the infiltration of polar air spilling out of the True North Strong and Free (Canada).. that air won't modify all that much so this is a great pattern if your a cold weather lover like myself. However, the data seems to have backed off on the amount of moisture after New Years but still we have opportunities for some moisture into the second week of Jan. As of now, after this next event around New Years, no real significant storm systems are likely but with the colder than usual air in place and the snowcover across much of the plains states on north, some surprises could be in order ( like today's 1.5 inch in OKC that no model saw coming!)
Have a Happy and Prosperous New Year if I don't post before then.

[educator1953]

Hey, Rocky!

It may be a bit early, but what are your predictions for the spring storm season? Do you think it will be more active than last year? My elderly mother has "heard" that it will be, and she's already pestering me to get the cellar swept out and cleaned up. Guess what I'll be doing later today. <sigh>

Anyway, I was just wondering what you think. Thanks for any info.

[rockyinyourradio]

Originally Posted by educator1953

Hey, Rocky!

It may be a bit early, but what are your predictions for the spring storm season? Do you think it will be more active than last year? My elderly mother has "heard" that it will be, and she's already pestering me to get the cellar swept out and cleaned up. Guess what I'll be doing later today. <sigh>

Anyway, I was just wondering what you think. Thanks for any info.

Still a bit of a challenge trying to figure out weather a few months down the road or for the matter, a few days.. My gut feeling is basically west of a Duncan, Calumet, Enid, Alva line.. drought will continue to be an issue this spring and will only worsen this summer IF past analogue years verify (years that had similar weather patterns) We are in a classic drought cycle (just like the 30's and 50's). Typically these last about 3 to 5 years. We are in going into year 3 which started in Aug. 2010 when the spicket was turned off so to speak.

As I see it now, unless we get a major pattern shift between now and April, I foresee the spring and especially summer to be an exceptionally dry one with brief intermissions of moisture, with a couple of those intermissions bringing locally excessive amounts of rain. As far as severe weather season which runs basically from March 1 to about June 15th.. the cities outlined above on west may have little in the way of any major severe weather events this year, but that does not mean none.. Even in the driest years, places in the heart of the dust bowl had occasional tornadoes and hail storms but I do see a below normal year overall for western OK. and the TX. PH. East of those towns and especially east of I-35, we could see some impressive severe weather events and I think the chances will be that this year will be alot like 2011 where many events happened further east than usual partly because of the drought and La Nina.

This year, we have "La Nada" which basically means we are neutral. We have had some years that were active and some quiet severe weather seasons during neutral years. I think our severe weather season will be dominated by just how dry it remains into the spring. If little appreciable rain occurs, many farmers out west will just till over their withered wheat crop which will hasten the warmer temperatures. You see, a nice lush region with good wheat adds alot of moisture to the lower atmosphere, corn and wheat are best at that. This is called evapro transpiration.. In normal years when the wheat is tall and healthy, it adds moisture and alot of times when storm systems come through, it will use that moisture and hence, we get more rain, more instability.. which could lead to stronger storms. In drier years, the opposite.. the wheat fields are scant, moisture starved and grow little. 2011 was a perfect example of that.. many places out west had little rain but there were some exceptions like OKC and places further east which had locally excessive rains. 2012 had a nice comeback with rain during the winter and spring, the wheat crop last year was amazing, then the drought returned with a vengeance, the result was our torrid summer of 2012. So what I'm trying to say is that drought conditions can feed upon itself, just as excessively wet conditions can do the same. This year.. up to 80% of the crop is poor to very poor as of last week.. which is worse than 2011. Now, we may be faced with storm systems that come through where the dynamics will be there, but moisture lacking, and what moisture there is will quickly mix out, especially west of I-35. Sometimes though, the unusual dry punch that can accompany these systems can be vicious tornado producers.. in drought years, the eastern plains into Arkansas and Missouri were hammered bad, and this year may be no different.

So in summary, where you live (the Duncan area), I would say.. slightly below average severe weather season, but the chances are still there that you may have a couple of scary days. Chances are March and April this year will be the months to watch.. if the pattern does not change and we don't have some generous rains during those months. What is normally an active May.. may be much drier than usual with much above normal temperatures, thus not much storm activity.

In the shorter term.. I see after this week's above normal temps. a another period of slightly to moderately below normal temperatures and potentially some moisture from around Thurs. the 7th to around Sunday the 10th. Also, long range models hint at a substantial cold wave the weekend after Valentines Day and the week after that.. even some snow and/or ice is possible that week.. we'll see, but I do definitely think that winter IS NOT over yet and we still have a chance of seeing a nice snow event somewhere in Okla. around the middle or latter part of Feb.

I hope we can keep this thread going.. I have alot happening and can't get on here as much.. hopefully others can contribute. Also, there is an awesome Weather section to City Data. Check that out and ask questions, but hopefully we can keep this thread going for the Oklahoma section.. after all, this is Oklahoma.. where the weather really can change in 5 minutes! Have a Blessed Day!

[educator1953]

Appreciate the info, Rocky.

I'll tell Mom what you wrote. I'm off to clean out the cellar for her so she'll quit harassing me about it. <smile>

You have a good day, too.

[StillwaterTownie]

Hopefully, rain will start trending up now, breaking the drought, so we won't have much of a fire season in March and April, like what happened last year.

[GraniteStater]

The computer model I look at, the GFS, shows precip chances next week for Nebraska and Kansas, possibly Oklahoma. Right now, the central US is in a fast NW flow, which is usually a dry pattern. On the High Plains that is a downslope warming wind direction. If temperatures can stay cooler than at least evaporation will be cut down if significant precip does not occur in the short-term. Cloudy days are much better in this regard.

[nightbird47]

With blizards at the end of February, what does it look like in March and April? I have family wanting to visit, prefereably not in the summer and not during this sort of weather. Since they plan to drive they'd rather not have to drive through snow either.

[bchris02]

It looks like another arctic blast is coming next week with highs only in the mid-30s and snow possible. Night time lows will be in the teens and twenties.

It's April, Oklahoma!