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2.04 of rain here at the farm 5 NW of Piedmont so far, looking at just over 5 inches for month, OKC has close to 7 inches for the month as of now with thismorning's event. Still another round of storms likely later this weekend until about Monday, then a gradual diminishing threat of rain and warmer temperatures will ensue.
I'll admit it.. my forecast has been officially trashed for this month, but I like being wrong in this regard. The rain is a blessing. As of now.. the model data suggests a return to warmer and drier conditions. I still think we'll see a few more 100F+ days the first half of August, the potential for more bouts of rain interspersed with cooler periods are there too, but I am reasonably confident that if your a fan of hot, steamy days.. you will be satisfied.
1.86" by Indiahoma, but 4.45" in Cache. Lots of street flooding, water rescues, and some business closures in the Lawton area and Geronimo due to flooding. Haven't needed the brush hog and mower much the past two years, used it yesterday afternoon, but I'm certain it's going to get a workout next week. Yesterday's dewpoint peaked at 78.3F here with the temperature at 80.1F, currently 76.3F with a temperature of 76.3 as well, 100%, or as the KSWO weather staff says, "air you can wear".
Been pretty hot latey though today there is a very small vort max (trough) on the southern end of the high which means today is cooler which is kinda cool
Looking at the long range models, don't see any significant cooling for quite some time. Very strong ridge over us right now deflecting any significant chances of rain. Taking a quick look at the models, it looks like the ridge may start to break down sept 6-9 period. It will start to cool off then too as we start entering fall... hopefully.
The drought started to redevelop but hopefully the recent storms and rains have put a damper on that. If we have an active storm pattern this fall it'll hopefully wipe out any chances of the drought redeveloping.
Here in SW OK it started up again but since Friday we've received almost 4". Altus has received at least 3", and the reservoirs, in dire need of refilling, are getting some relief. Currently temperature and dewpoint are both 72.5F so perhaps more is on the way.
I just hope we've seen the last of long strings of 90 + degree days.
I have to say, though, this Summer was more mild than I expected. I just moved back to Oklahoma last November after 8 years away and while I missed Oklahoma in a lot of ways, I did NOT miss the Summer heat and humidity.
But it really hasn't been so bad this year. That, or I somehow just deal with it better in my old age.
One thing I did miss was the sky. The past 8 years I lived first on the East Coast, then the West Coast. I loved a lot about that, and there is certainly plentiful incredible natural beauty where I was, but the areas in which I lived were so wooded, forested and hilly (and sometimes in large cities as well) that the sky seemed kind of closed off. I missed being able to see the sky stretch on for miles.
The sky here in Oklahoma is amazing and I won't take it for granted again. The sunrises and sunsets can just be breathtaking. Like a gift.
Thunderstorms too. Didn't see much lightning or hear much thunder when I was out on the coasts. Not sure of the reason, but even though it rained a LOT (especially around the NW coast) there were rarely storms that involved thunder and lightning. I really missed that.
Yeah, speaking of the sky, Stillwater is set in a valley with trees on most sides. One feels hemmed in. But a short drive west to I-35 and then exit at Enid and all that goes away to show ruler flat, treeless 360 degree view of the horizon. It's makes for a dramatic change.
You were blessed to have missed the summers of 2011 and 2012. Nobody had ever seen such high, persistent heat in Oklahoma that just went on day after day. The wild fires were terrible. Then 2013 and much of Oklahoma had hundreds on only a few days.
Greetings! Nice to see this thread once again resurrected. Well, overall, my summer forecast was somewhat of a bust, but at least I knew that this summer would not be a repeat of the last two torrid years. The excessive rainfall of July was not foreseen, August was a little more what I expected.
Taking a look between now into the fall and winter, in the short term.. a beautiful stretch of idyllic weather with comfortably warm days and cool fair nights.. skies will clear from north to south today and starting tomorrow.. perfect weather, with not much wind either (an uncommon characteristic for the last few months) Next weekend, another front moves in with a threat of rain statewide.. especially east of I-35. Next Sunday will be the best chance of rain.. models have up to an inch in places like Stillwater and Tulsa. Have a feeling this will be scaled back some but we'll see how the models evolve.
Looking into October, the autumn season and a peak into winter: long range patterns depicted on the CFSv2 model which has had a reasonable handle on it's accuracy indicates a warmer and drier than normal October but I'm curious about what could occur around or just after the second week of October which could bring some respectable cold fronts thru here resulting in possible early season frosts across the north and northeast parts of the state due to a blocking pattern that may take up residence across the North American continent.. if the jet stream configuration backs up just far enough west, we could see repeated cool air intrusions the last two weeks of the month but will be accompanied by only modest amounts of precipitation. If however, the jet stream sets up with the trough across the east, ridge of high pressure central states and a trough in the west.. mild and tranquil weather will be the dominant story .. again with below normal rainfall. One fly in the ointment.. tropical activity that I feel will ramp up in the NW Caribbean and Gulf of Mexico during October with an outside chance of a decaying system that may work its way up into Oklahoma.. also a possible tropical system may affect the southern plains, Texas in particular coming from Baja California.. a small chance of that as well.. but I emphasize.. small chance.
Later on, going through November.. December and the winter of 2013-14, I see a potential for an overall milder and drier than normal winter BUT.. a possible mid Pacific el nino, which if that occurs, will be a modest el nino at best, this could activate the sub tropical jetstream that could give us some cloudy, chilly periods with potential snow and ice events. As of now, I give this about a 35% chance of this happening. I do think there will be parts of November, maybe December and the latter part of winter like February and March that could feature some healthy cold snaps. If a good snow cover can be established to our north from Kansas on north.. those cold outbreaks could mean business with some nights getting into the single digits above zero, even with little snowcover here in Oklahoma. But overall, I am guardedly optimistic of an overall milder and drier than normal winter for us here in Oklahoma.
Even further ahead.. a potentially snowier and colder than normal winter from the Pacific Northwest across the northern plains and the northeast may create some sharp contrasts in temperature across the central and southern plains, this may result in a stormier than normal spring for 2014.
As always, this is all based on long term trends across the northern hemisphere, this is speculation at best. We'll see how this all works out. Have a blessed day and lets try to keep this thread alive.
Edit: Just looked at the latest CFSv2 model.. suddenly it's suggesting some rather wet periods during the 2nd and 3rd week of October.. a turnaround from several days of an opposite forecast. I suspect this may be a "burp" on this run.. Only God knows.. and I'll keep on trying.
Last edited by rockyinyourradio; 09-20-2013 at 11:38 AM..
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