[nightbird47]

Originally Posted by GraniteStater

Impacts would likely be for the upcoming Fall and Winter if it materializes as advertised. Odds favor above average precipitation for the southern 1/3 of the US during moderate or stronger El Nino episodes.

Hey, bring it on. Sounds good to me.

[rockyinyourradio]

Hey everyone! Glad this thread has been resurrected as I pretty much gave up on keeping the interest going concerning this, plus I've been busy with work and life in general.

I can comment more on this soon, but I am confident that the upcoming El Nino will come to fruition by late summer and will have an effect on our upcoming fall and winter. As for summer? My guess is that we will struggle to get out of the drought and I do see a potentially above normal temperature/below normal precipitation pattern overall. I do not see another repeat of 2011 where we roasted with over 50 days of 100F temperatures here in OKC. I think chances are, the first half of the summer may be the hottest with a potential heat wave for a couple weeks at a stretch in June and July. As the summer progresses, the El Nino may start to have an affect over the central and northern sections of the country and especially across the eastern Pacific where I expect an above normal hurricane season. The remnants of these systems may potentially affect the southern plains, especially from September into October but could affect us in August too.

As far as the short term is concerned, a prolonged period of unsettled weather commences on Friday for the western half of Oklahoma as a slow moving upper level low becomes disconnected from the main jet stream to the north and crawls across the region. The northwest 3/4 of the state will benefit the most and actually, the most drought ridden areas of SW Okla. and the far western sections of the state may see the most rain. Much of the rain will be convective in nature, so some places may see anywhere from 2-4 inches from Friday the 23rd to about Wednesday the 28th. Severe weather, while not non existent, will be at a minimum due to lack of appropriate wind shear needed for those dreaded tornadoes and also, instability will be at a minimum because of the overall cloud cover and moist airmass at all levels. This upcoming scenario will be a blessing that are most rain starved, but will only put a dent in this drought. I really don't see some serious relief until at least September/October.

More on this soon. Again, good to see this thread back.. please feel free to post your questions and observations on here, I'll monitor this more frequently now. All the best to you.

[rockyinyourradio]

An addendum to the previous post: I'm getting increasingly encouraged with the long term computer models that we may be looking at an extended period of at least normal to possibly above normal rainfall that commences on Memorial Day weekend and could last at least 10 days to two weeks. In the short term regarding the upcoming rainfall event, models are all over the map (pun intended) on just how much rain we'll get. It is safe to say that everyone here in Okla. will see at least some rain; at the minimum, at least .75 of an inch starting this Friday and lasting through Tuesday of next week, but some places may experience as much as 3 inches. Severe weather threat remains low, but some of these storms may harbor some hail up to half dollar size, but that won't be the norm. For this time of year, the lack of severe weather is an anomaly. A good anomaly for sure.

Longer term. There is a long term model called the CFS which has it's moments of being somewhat correct. It has been adamant in a prolonged period of near excessive rainfall from eastern Colorado, south to the northern Texas panhandle, and east thru northern Okla. and north to Nebraska. This may last well into June. I still think folks south of I-40 will struggle with drought but I'm watching these trends to see if it will change my mind. I am still very optimistic that our drought will be temporarily eased.. maybe even almost eradicated in some areas by the end of the year. Don't get your hopes up though.. we are still in an overall cold Pacific Decadal Oscillation cycle, which means an unusually cool northern and eastern Pacific Ocean. These are cycles that the ocean goes through roughly every 20 years. Currently there is a temporary warming of the northeastern Pacific coupled with a borderline weak to possibly moderate el nino coming on. This will last thru the rest of the year before it returns cold.. and thus, we may return to subnormal rainfall by summer of next year. Time will tell though.

Also, a preliminary prediction for next winter.. it could be a doozy when it comes to snow and ice.. if the long term trends continue.

Have a blessed day.. because you deserve it.

[debbie at bouontiful]

Thank you rocky. I sure hope the rain comes a little south of I 40 (McAlester/Stuart area) I am having my fields sprayed today and will need some rain.

[rockyinyourradio]

Originally Posted by debbie at bouontiful

Thank you rocky. I sure hope the rain comes a little south of I 40 (McAlester/Stuart area) I am having my fields sprayed today and will need some rain.

debbie at bountiful: I think your area will overall see a little more rain this summer. This is typically the case anyway, but being your rainfall deficits are less than other places further west, vegetation and grasses are more green (as far as I know).. that produces more evaprotranspiration (emission of moisture into the atmosphere).. this helps to actually produce more rain. I think your area will see at least 2 inches of rain starting this weekend and lasting thru at least Wednesday.

[StillwaterTownie]

Today, Memorial Day, much of the northeast quadrant of Oklahoma is where it's at for the most good rain. Amounts fairly common in the 1 to 3 inch range.

During these rainy days, Stillwater has been largely bypassed, especially if you live on the wrong side of town. Stillwater Regional Airport has only had .21" so far, while my side of town has had .71". Most of that from late Sunday afternoon when a series of showers developed northeast of Oklahoma City and moved through.

It's unusually good how the rainy spell has been able to come about with hardly any storm watches put out for Oklahoma. Hopefully, a rainy pattern has been established strong and lasting enough to break the drought.

[_redbird_]

Rocky! Where are you?

I read we will be in heaven next week! The high temps will be 20 degrees lower than today????? No way! And a low in the 60s???? OMG! That will be fantastic.

[teakboat]

I've said before that I think it is possible that we are entering a period of global cooling... I know that some discount the relationship of solar activity and climate but it seems to hold. And it's not about TSA. Add in the increased volcanic activity and things are getting really weird.

Yeah, I know this is 'weather', not climate, (unless it gets warm outside, then it is always climate) but stay tuned haha

[debbie at bouontiful]

Are we coming out of the drought? I wish Rocky would come on with more information. I get so frantic anymore with summers. My husband keeps talking about El Nino or the other. which are we going into?

[Rubi3]

According to information at El Niño: Is 2014 the new 1997? - NASA Science Kelvin waves are showing up and being carefully watched as they could be signaling an El Nino.

I wonder why this phenomenon was named El Nino, since in Spanish it mean the Christ child.