[nightbird47]

That's for the post. I remember other years since I moved here the worse storms were after the holidays. I did a good shopping already so hopefully will not need another trip before that. My one experience in a car with ice was quite enough.

When we get really cold it seems to seal up the windows better and the house stays warmer. I'll take all the wet stuff we can get.

[AmericnGrl]

Originally Posted by rockyinyourradio

A quick heads up about next weekend (Jan. 31-Feb. 1).. the new and improved GFS model depicts a major rain/snow event for much of Oklahoma starting Saturday morning and lasting through Superbowl Sunday. As colder air filters in, rain should change to freezing rain then snow and could be some serious accumulations in parts of the state. The European model has been bullish on not much happening but still suggests colder weather will commence by that weekend.

With this type of pattern, as I alluded to in earlier posts.. we will be susceptible to these type of renegade storms coming in on the southern jet stream then cut off and meander through our area. Potentially, if the GFS proves correct.. this storm for next weekend could be VERY impressive. My gut feelings though.. that the GFS model will waffle on timing and strength and gradually fizzle to an ordinary system that should at least bring a spattering of rain and some snow..maybe like our last system just experienced, but I'm holding out some hope this could be more. I am very optimistic of a cold and overall more unsettled period between Feb. 1-10th, maybe longer. I'll do my best to keep you abreast.

Its been nice in Kansas City for a week or more today was 70 degrees which I was really liking but I think we're going downhill from here as well. Been really dry for years I think the whole western U.S. is having a shortage of rainfall.

Anyway 70 degrees works for me but the party's over I guess. I don't understand why its not uncommon for Oklahoma to get worse snows that farther north in KC but I'm sure there's a reason, not being meteorogically inclined its a mystery to me.

COLDER does not sound optimistic to me BUT that's just my 2 cents!

[rockyinyourradio]

Greetings! Hope you enjoyed our May like temperatures the last few days. My Silver Maple trees are already trying to bud out. Had near 80F yesterday near Piedmont where I live and this past Tuesday and Wednesday in the upper 70's!! Definitely pretty unusual to have near record warmth three days in a row!

Looks like the system that has been shown for well over a week now to affect the southern plains is still on track for this weekend and pretty much as I expected, the model has scaled back on the moisture and the amount of cold to filter into this storm.. so only expect about a half inch on the average between later Friday evening through Sunday, with higher amounts in the south and east parts of the state. Snowfall on Sunday is the best bet north and east parts of Oklahoma. So overall, this won't be a big deal, but anytime you get a half inch of rain in January is a good thing as this month is normally the driest of the year.

Further ahead.. I was pretty confident of a very chilly February for much of Oklahoma; I no longer am. I do think we will see more extremes in temperatures for Feb. though.. We should be on the western sides of some very significant arctic plunges that will mainly affect the eastern half of the nation, mainly north of I-40 and east of I-35. Any big cool downs will be short lived and I foresee a number of days well into the 60's, 70's maybe even more 80 degree weather possible during the month, but also some days hardly above freezing too.

Precipitation: I'm still cautiously confident that we may get into a more active storm track that could give us some beneficial moisture, so I'm going for an overall normal amount of rainfall. We are still critically dry in the western parts of Oklahoma and I don't foresee any major relief for February, but any little bit helps.

I still predict about a 60% chance of below normal temperatures and overall slightly below normal moisture for March and April. I also am becoming concerned with drought and unusual heat rearing it's ugly head for the summer months which could last into the fall but as always.. this could change. My reasoning for this.. data is suggesting a return to a mild La Nina for the fall and next winter which usually means drier than normal weather for Oklahoma. I emphasize "usually".. which surely doesn't mean "always"! Lets hope for the best.

[SluggoF16]

The past couple of arctic plunges have mercifully missed us, especially down here in the SW part of the state. Hopefully we don't get any of that stuff we had 5 years ago yesterday, the big debilitating ice storm of 28 January. So far .21" down here for January which is unusual, all in the form of rain.

[rockyinyourradio]

Originally Posted by SluggoF16

The past couple of arctic plunges have mercifully missed us, especially down here in the SW part of the state. Hopefully we don't get any of that stuff we had 5 years ago yesterday, the big debilitating ice storm of 28 January. So far .21" down here for January which is unusual, all in the form of rain.

That storm a little over a week ago had a bullseye of nearly 10 inches of snow in Dill City which is about 15 miles west of Cordell, yet only twenty miles south, hardly anything. Quite an amazing event. I don't see any major ice storms in the near future but looking at the most recent data.. I am thinking we will see several systems over the next couple of weeks, just how much moisture we get with these systems is the big question.
I also think that any warm up's we get before February 15th will last only a day or two before we sink about into the 30's and 40's for highs and the 20's for lows. So don't look for any really mild weather until after the 15th when warmer periods in the 70's are more likely. However, as I said in my previous post, this type of weather pattern, being that we are basically in between two large upper level pressure systems.. a trough of low pressure ushering in the unusual cold to the northeast, and a large upper high to the west where unseasonable warmth will continue.. that with a couple of systems cutting in underneath these other systems, one of which this weekend will give us a good drink of water.. at least a half inch for a good part of Oklahoma.. and well needed indeed. Meanwhile....

All the truly interesting weather will be centered over the Northeast where another blizzard is possible especially in Maine (I started a weather thread for the Maine CD page too) for Saturday night and Sunday, another big storm for the mid Atlantic states late Monday into Tuesday and yet another; possibly epic storm system for the northeast late next week, maybe Thursday/Friday time frame.

[SluggoF16]

Originally Posted by rockyinyourradio

That storm a little over a week ago had a bullseye of nearly 10 inches of snow in Dill City which is about 15 miles west of Cordell, yet only twenty miles south, hardly anything. Quite an amazing event...

That was quite localized, I forgot about that. All TWC's coverage was on Amarillo, and I don't get OKC news down here.

It was highlighted, repeatedly, however, that the past week had the Southern Plains warmer than my hometown of Phoenix and of Miami.

[rockyinyourradio]

Originally Posted by SluggoF16

That was quite localized, I forgot about that. All TWC's coverage was on Amarillo, and I don't get OKC news down here.

It was highlighted, repeatedly, however, that the past week had the Southern Plains warmer than my hometown of Phoenix and of Miami.

Altus and Hobart were actually one of the warmest spots in the US yesterday.. 84F!! not unheard of, but plenty of years go by with January's not even hitting 80 degrees. Just looked at the extended European model which comes out twice a week. Today's run has some bone chilling temperatures for around the middle of the month on towards the end of Feb. Could have been a little premature in my forecast of more 70's to near 80 for the upcoming month (was originally thinking the latter half). That model while it does have it's issues, gives a good hint of what MAY happen. Definitely an interesting pattern coming up though. I don't think it will be boring.

[rockyinyourradio]

Increasing chances of a decent snowfall for parts of central, northern into northeast Okla. for Wednesday night/Thursday time frame. If models come to pass.. 3-5" not out of the question from Perry to Miami and maybe 1-2" for OKC. Then another mild spell starting the following weekend and lasting maybe to Valentines Day. The inconsistency of model trends is aggravating as just a couple of days ago was suggesting something completely different. Still, I'm thinking an overall more active pattern with much needed rain is becoming more likely.

[StillwaterTownie]

Originally Posted by SluggoF16

The past couple of arctic plunges have mercifully missed us, especially down here in the SW part of the state. Hopefully we don't get any of that stuff we had 5 years ago yesterday, the big debilitating ice storm of 28 January. So far .21" down here for January which is unusual, all in the form of rain.

Here in Stillwater, 1.07" fell during January, with the majority of it coming on the 31st. Stillwater hasn't had a bad ice storm since around 2002.

[rockyinyourradio]

Weather whiplash will be the name of the game over the next few days. Strong cold front entering the state now will sweep through by this evening. Any frozen precip. will be negligible. Then, another taste of near May like temperatures for NW Okla. by Saturday and Sunday as temps. will rebound from morning lows near 20F Thursday morning to Saturday afternoon highs near 75F, maybe even 80! Further east, Saturday's highs will be around 73F for Stillwater and 72F for McAlester. Cache may easily hit upper 70'sF on Saturday and Sunday as well.

Temperatures will stay well above normal until around the 12th (next Thursday) before leveling off back to slightly above normal. Little rainfall is expected.

Looking at the extended data.. now it implies a colder period commencing just after Valentines Day and I'm becoming more confident that the last half of the month may overall be below normal temperature wise with the threat of a couple of precip. events in the form of snow/ice. Just a few days ago, the data suggested otherwise. .. Will see how this all unfolds. This has been a heck of a pattern to predict but somehow, I feel the latest solutions the models offer will come close to pass, so winter is far from over. So.. those are the scores in the weather wars!