[_redbird_]

Batten down the hatches! We are getting some awesome thunder here as the storm passes. Real spring like storm with lots of wind and lightning.

[Bass&Catfish2008]

Originally Posted by rockyinyourradio

Had 50-55mph gusts with the passage of the dry line here 5mi. NW of Piedmont just before 4pm. Visibilities down to around 5 miles in blowing dust currently as of 4:17pm. Infact, as I type, winds are gusting easily to 50mph. Allegedly, winds gusting almost to 70 in the OKC area, probably the result of a microburst associated with the thunderstorms that have fired up along the dryline.

As I expected, models are bouncing around on the upcoming cool down for next week. I'll see how the trends go before throwing in the towel on the return of winter. As of now, still guardedly sticking to my predictions per my earlier post. I am concerned that there will be a higher chance that instead of us being bathed in a late winter Canadian chill.. we'll be in the battleground of air masses.. data suggests a very active pattern that could feature some severe weather but also a chance of wintry precip. too. Again, this would be roughly between Feb. 26-March 5th.
More to follow.

Yep. Wind was quite insane late this morning and early this afternoon where I live.

[debbie at bouontiful]

Can someone pray for snow because, I miss it so much. I do hope we have a better summer this year, not sure I can handle too many more like last summer.

[rockyinyourradio]

Originally Posted by SluggoF16

Any long-range progs for 2-3 Mar 2012? Narrowing down the range of dates.

Looking at the long range ensembles (GFS model and European), I'm now far less optimistic that we'll see a substantial arctic plunge here in the southern plains BUT, we won't be far way from it from the projected cold wave which at best will only graze our area. I'll admit, this winter has been a real head banger in trying to make sense of this data. Even the most seasoned meteorologist have had their patience tested as too many times, the data was adamant for several days at a stretch for big cool downs and projected snows, just to scale back majorly on the forecasted event. Some meteorologists argue that the reason for the greater than normal inaccuracies is the result of the cooler than normal temperatures in mid and high levels of the atmosphere (18000-36000 ft) across the mid latitudes on north. Who knows.. anyway,

I no longer believe that we'll get our swan song event for this winter.. I think that may have occurred last week (whoopee!) What I'm now eyeballing is still an active weather pattern where deep low pressure systems will take shape and trek northeast from the Texas/OK. Panhandle up toward the Great Lakes. Here in Oklahoma, we'll be on the warmer side of these storm systems and hopefully some moisture will get entrained from the Gulf of Mexico, severe weather is a distinct possibility with one such system on Monday 2/27 or Tue. 2/28. That storm could produce the first official tornadoes of the season.. watch for that day. But keep in mind.. the data can change!

SluggoF16: Looks like your days in question look seasonably cool with moderate to fresh north winds. Rain chances are low but not non existent.

Further outlook.. Increasingly confident that we'll be considerably above normal temperatures after about Mar. 8-10.. potentially we may be wrapping up an active weather stretch and go into a drier period but frankly.. that's a roll of the dice at this point. As far as any snow in the forecast, maybe Wed. morning (2/29) a brief mix.. other than that.. we may just be done for the season but I'm still not giving up hope for some kind of March surprise..

Stay Blessed!

[SluggoF16]

Originally Posted by rockyinyourradio

SluggoF16: Looks like your days in question look seasonably cool with moderate to fresh north winds. Rain chances are low but not non existent.

Further outlook.. Increasingly confident that we'll be considerably above normal temperatures after about Mar. 8-10.. potentially we may be wrapping up an active weather stretch and go into a drier period but frankly.. that's a roll of the dice at this point. As far as any snow in the forecast, maybe Wed. morning (2/29) a brief mix.. other than that.. we may just be done for the season but I'm still not giving up hope for some kind of March surprise..

Stay Blessed!

Thanks! Other models are showing similar activity the 2nd and 3rd... minimal cloud cover (<30% coverage) with the best likelihood for precip here in SW OK best on the 28th.

[educator1953]

Beautiful day here in my part of the state. Right now, 70 degrees, very little breeze, sunny, and bright. My husband said it was the perfect day for his golf game. He loved it!

[SluggoF16]

The big north winds have come and gone (or so it seems), max gusts were 33 knots (38 mph). Currently (6:15 PM) we're down to 17 knots (20 mph) with some gusts to 24 knots (28 mph). Still a warm 55 out, pressure is rising, up 0.05" Hg in 30 minutes. Data from our OS-21.

[rockyinyourradio]

Quick update on tomorrow's potential severe weather set up.. best chances for anything to be concerned about will be roughly from US 75 on east. Moisture availability will be limited but whatever storms do form, could feature mostly straight line winds to 60mph and up to half dollar size hail. Any one location east of US 75 could receive up to a half inch of rain. West of there, in places like OKC, Cache, Stillwater may at best receive a quarter inch at most. Some places may see little if anything rain wise. Winds will crank up behind the dryline which will move through central OK. during the afternoon tomorrow. Highest wind gusts will be in the 35-45mph range.

As for the longer range outlook.. looks like a snoozer. I'm seeing an overall drier pattern with much above normal temperatures.. so what else is new.

I'm pretty much waving my surrender flag on seeing any more winter weather here in Okla. I basically bombed on that forecast. Overall, I see at least a 3-4 degree above normal temperature average for March with slightly to moderately below normal rainfall. We still are in a La Nina which favours a drier weather pattern here in the southern plains. I do see us going to a more neutral phase (No La Nina or El Nino) by June. I still am reasonably confident that this upcoming spring (later March through May) will be slightly wetter and not as hot as last year. More to come as conditions warrant. Lets try to keep this thread alive. I welcome questions and input from others here on this forum.

[rockyinyourradio]

Slightly higher chance of severe weather thisafternoon than earlier anticipated. Scattered severe thunderstorms possible after about 5pm from roughly US 81 on east.. better chances as you go east. Tornadoes are definitely possible once you get into Arkansas, could be a pretty nasty night over that way. Here in Okla., straight line winds and hail are the main threats.

Since my last post yesterday, models of amped up an active weather pattern for us into the middle of the month We'll see how it unfolds. Also, some of the climatologists blogs I follow suggest a potential big cool down after around March 15th.. I'm not buying it ... yet.

Look forward in hearing what's up in your area.

[_redbird_]

Originally Posted by rockyinyourradio

Since my last post yesterday, models of amped up an active weather pattern for us into the middle of the month We'll see how it unfolds. Also, some of the climatologists blogs I follow suggest a potential big cool down after around March 15th.. I'm not buying it ... yet.

Look forward in hearing what's up in your area.

I can't believe it's time for the first mowing. That is just way too soon. More freezing weather, please. Not ready for spring chores.