OC Real Estate... Buy or Wait? (Sacramento, Chester: 2013, renters, houses)

[flo2900]

Originally Posted by mommyntheoc

Having seen the cycles here my entire life...I'd have to say to buy now because it isn't going to get any lower, in fact, I'm seeing an upswing in the market here currently, houses selling in less time, foreclosures purchased as short sales instead of going to auction...definitely turning around! Plus, prices are back to the 2000 price...can't beat that. With that said, I'd like to tell you not to buy unless you are in it for the long run because it is going to take a good 10-15 years of good politics to keep the prices going up to their previous equity again!

Yes it will take 15 years for prices to go back to where they were in 2006 but there are more bad loans to reset in the next 3 years (opt ARM, alt-A). Those loans are larger in volume than the sub prime loans you have been seeing defaulting since 2006-2007. So bottom maybe in 3 years or so. If you put into the equation the bad economy, loss of jobs etc. on top of those loans reseting you`re left with a very dim prospective.
Yes, there are less foreclosure on the market and ppl panic and start overbidding eachother but that`s short lived until the new waives of foreclosures are coming.
Government efforts to slow the RE crash by postponing foreclosures, loan modifications programs are attempts to prevent a RE disaster but market correction is inevitable.

[Axiom]

It's been almost 2 years since I originally posted this thread, and I'm always a little surprised when it pops back up again.

But I'm still very interested in reading all the opinions here, so keep 'em coming.

Originally Posted by mommyntheoc

Plus, prices are back to the 2000 price...can't beat that.

Not seeing 2000 prices in the areas I'm watching. If that were the case, it might actually bring properties I'm interested in into my range.

For now I'm still waiting... not because I'm trying to time the bottom, but because I can't afford anything I want using any kind of conventional financing formula.

FWIW, I'm not trying to pick up a mansion at fire sale prices either. I just want a decent SFR in a nice neighborhood, with good schools, and for a reasonable price.

I can't bring myself to pay a million dollars for a tract house the owner paid $350,000 for 10 years ago, and hasn't spent a penny to update. What made the house that much more valuable?

[Kandy]

I agree that homes are not even close to 2000 levels. We bought a home in June 2000 in the Orange hills and paid $335K for it (we sold 2005). That same house is on the market for $659K right now. I have a feeling (prediction) that it will need to drop another $100K before it sells.

Also - how funny to see this thread pop up years later. I wish I had a crystal ball with all the answers. ~K~

[flo2900]

Originally Posted by Kandy

I agree that homes are not even close to 2000 levels. We bought a home in June 2000 in the Orange hills and paid $335K for it (we sold 2005). That same house is on the market for $659K right now. I have a feeling (prediction) that it will need to drop another $100K before it sells.

Also - how funny to see this thread pop up years later. I wish I had a crystal ball with all the answers. ~K~

Kandy youre close in your estimations. RE madness started in 1999. In 2005 alone prices in OC grew 25% on average. Normal appreciation of RE is 3% a year. In 2005 alone prices grew as it should grow in 8 years. Between 2003-2006 prices in OC went up 180% (18 times more than it should)....Return to the 2006 levels we might not even see for 20 years.

[pinkgonegreen]

The areas I'm speaking about are the areas I've lived in...Lake Forest, Mission Viejo, & Irvine, all in very nice areas, not gated but safe, beautiful, and remodeled! It would be hard to find ANY houses in these cities that haven't been remodeled recently, everyone took home equity loans to remodel - nearly everything around my parts looks new.

I disagree that more loans will reset and default...I think legislature will prevent it and really, everyone who is upside down is just paying their mortgage anyways...most ppl didn't go for ARMS, they just overpaid on their house and the values dropped so they stopped paying b/c they were upside down...and I speak about that from knowing many ppl in these situations in south coastal orange county - if you are talking outside of Newport Beach, Irvine, Mission Viejo, Lake Forest, or Laguna Hills/Niguel...then you may have a different perspective than mine. In my opinion, I've lived in the nicest areas of the county though and they are back to 2000-2001 prices here currently. :-)

Originally Posted by Axiom

It's been almost 2 years since I originally posted this thread, and I'm always a little surprised when it pops back up again.

But I'm still very interested in reading all the opinions here, so keep 'em coming.



Not seeing 2000 prices in the areas I'm watching. If that were the case, it might actually bring properties I'm interested in into my range.

For now I'm still waiting... not because I'm trying to time the bottom, but because I can't afford anything I want using any kind of conventional financing formula.

FWIW, I'm not trying to pick up a mansion at fire sale prices either. I just want a decent SFR in a nice neighborhood, with good schools, and for a reasonable price.

I can't bring myself to pay a million dollars for a tract house the owner paid $350,000 for 10 years ago, and hasn't spent a penny to update. What made the house that much more valuable?

[flo2900]

Originally Posted by mommyntheoc

The areas I'm speaking about are the areas I've lived in...Lake Forest, Mission Viejo, & Irvine, all in very nice areas, not gated but safe, beautiful, and remodeled! It would be hard to find ANY houses in these cities that haven't been remodeled recently, everyone took home equity loans to remodel - nearly everything around my parts looks new.

I disagree that more loans will reset and default...I think legislature will prevent it and really, everyone who is upside down is just paying their mortgage anyways...most ppl didn't go for ARMS, they just overpaid on their house and the values dropped so they stopped paying b/c they were upside down...and I speak about that from knowing many ppl in these situations in south coastal orange county - if you are talking outside of Newport Beach, Irvine, Mission Viejo, Lake Forest, or Laguna Hills/Niguel...then you may have a different perspective than mine. In my opinion, I've lived in the nicest areas of the county though and they are back to 2000-2001 prices here currently. :-)

wow... legislature will prevent loan reset and loan default

[JohnG72]

Originally Posted by flo2900

wow... legislature will prevent loan reset and loan default

Do not bother arguing with her. Have you read her other posts?

[flo2900]

Originally Posted by JohnG72

Do not bother arguing with her. Have you read her other posts?

John, LOL, yes I have....sad!

[pinkgonegreen]

I'm sorry, I should've been more specific...the houses that are SELLING (not sitting) are selling at 2000-2001 prices! :-)

Originally Posted by Kandy

I agree that homes are not even close to 2000 levels. We bought a home in June 2000 in the Orange hills and paid $335K for it (we sold 2005). That same house is on the market for $659K right now. I have a feeling (prediction) that it will need to drop another $100K before it sells.

Also - how funny to see this thread pop up years later. I wish I had a crystal ball with all the answers. ~K~

[pinkgonegreen]

Really, it only harms people like you to behave the way you do...you are the ones who are unhappy...the rest of us are just trying to help others, rather than wallowing in our imaginary status of society! Others see through your intentions, they just want to make nice...because around here there aren't really very many options other than to either be lonely or befriend pessimistic, self-centered people...and somewhere inside of you, you feel that but you're too scared to admit it.

Originally Posted by flo2900

John, LOL, yes I have....sad!