Condo dwelling urbanists vs. the predicted death of the suburbs, yet OC still stands (Santa Ana: 2013, apartments)

[LuvSouthOC]

Originally Posted by RudyOD

Orange County will continue, as it has been for the last couple decades, as a leader in the country in continuously re-defining the way Americans live, work and play as well as its urban form.

OC as an overall entity appears to be in limbo, as in few people consider it to be urban in the sense that the cores of Chicago, San Francisco, Manhattan, or even Los Angeles (from downtown all the way to Santa Monica) is, but few people would consider it a traditional suburb as well. As our cities have sprawled until finally becoming one big Orange sea, there is no room for sprawl, and the majority of open land that is left is mostly protected wilderness. Therefore, what's left in OC is infill development.

You see such projects all over the county. I believe that we will see two models of growth, one with Anaheim (and Irvine) leading the way in new-urbanism, with the Platinum Triangle being the center for this type of growth where you see high rise condominiums popping up all over the place, in what used to be older strip malls or tract housing. Santa Ana provides the second model, based around a central core, and this growth is primarily based on rejuvenation mixed in with some redevelopment. Though Santa Ana will stand out in OC due its fundamental structure, I think Anaheim is the model that most OC's cities will follow as it is simply more relevant to their realities.

You see the difference in the Anaheim vs. Santa Ana growth paradox most clear when you consider that the city (Anaheim) largely ignores its own historic downtown area in favor of the new districts it has established around its entertainment zone (AConnext | Anaheim Transit. Where You Want to Go.). Whereas Santa Ana is shifting a lot of its resources on its downtown, and the streetcar (unlike Anaheim's) will past through downtown. I'm not arguing one is right or wrong, but it is clear the way these two cities are choosing to develop, and it will continue to give them very distinct vibes, even as both continue to become more urbanized. I think a similar comparison within LA county has been the touristy focus of Santa Monica vs. the cultural focus of Old Town Pasadena.

Personally, I think having both models is GOOD as it means that OC residents have much more options/variety to choose from, and therefore makes it an overall more exciting place to live than the sleepy farm town suburbs (Buena Park/La Palma/Cypress were still known for their dairy back in the 1950's!) of yesteryear.

I think the third model is Irvine. I am not advocating or criticizing it, but I think Irvine represents a third way.

[denverian]

Originally Posted by mbell75

Yep, I agree. This is part of the reason Ive hesitated to move to Newport Beach, CDM or Laguna recently. The neighborhood Im in here in Anaheim is very nice but it gets dicey just a few blocks away as its low income with a good amount of gang activity and crime which doesn't particularly sit well with me. It was not as bad as it is now even 8 years ago when I moved here. However, I chose this area when I first moved back to OC so I would only be a 5-10 minute drive (or less) from sporting events, concerts, Disney, events at the convention center, outdoor shopping malls etc...I also have multiple grocery stores and a ton of restaurants and bars within a few minutes drive. If I move to Newport or Laguna, I gain easy beach access and Fashion Island but I have to drive 20-30 minutes (more with traffic) for everything else I listed above. Rents have been increasing tremendously, even in the more run-down parts of Anaheim, so hopefully they increase to the point the criminal element is forced to leave the area and it becomes the much nicer city it was back in the 80s when I was a kid. We'll see.

Yeah, OC's "high density suburbs" can be quite convenient, especially in north OC. On weekends, I would rarely stray more than a couple miles from home since everything was so nearby.

Compare that to where my mom lives in very spread-out suburbs of Kansas City. From her house, you can't walk to anything retail at all. And then most things she needs (grocery store, etc.) are at least a 15 min. drive from the house. I find that very annoying.

[denverian]

Originally Posted by LuvSouthOC

I agree with the gist of what you're saying. By the way, as realtors will tell you, OC is nearly completely built out at least in the traditional 'burb sense.

I've seen some rather horrible "infill" projects around where we lived in Orange. Basically jamming suburban homes onto extremely small plots of land that are surrounded by nothing most people want to live hear. So you end up with nice homes, but they have no space for a small lawn and overlook things like busy Metrolink tracks or the dumpsters behind WalMart. I realize land is scarce, but infill can be done better.

This is probably why north OC sees so many home remodels to update houses built in the 50s - 80s. People want a new house, but it's just not possible anymore. Scrapeoffs will probably increase too. Here in Denver, there are complete neighborhoods where you see scrapeoffs left and right because the old housing stock has become undesirable, but the location is extremely desirable.

[RudyOD]

Originally Posted by denverian

I've seen some rather horrible "infill" projects around where we lived in Orange. Basically jamming suburban homes onto extremely small plots of land that are surrounded by nothing most people want to live hear. So you end up with nice homes, but they have no space for a small lawn and overlook things like busy Metrolink tracks or the dumpsters behind WalMart. I realize land is scarce, but infill can be done better.

This is probably why north OC sees so many home remodels to update houses built in the 50s - 80s. People want a new house, but it's just not possible anymore. Scrapeoffs will probably increase too. Here in Denver, there are complete neighborhoods where you see scrapeoffs left and right because the old housing stock has become undesirable, but the location is extremely desirable.

Ive seen one house lots become a lot with 6 'houses' in Buena Park, La Palma, Cypress.... This is where the original home was wprth around 650000, and each new one of those homed start at an "affordable" (that's the word they used) 'low 500,000's'. @_@ . Those developers made a killing im sure.

[pacific2]

I posted this article elsewhere, but it's clear that the very suburban South County region is not dying:

South County growing strong, new economic report says - The Orange County Register
The report found that south Orange County accounts for about 14 percent of the entire Orange County economy. If the region were a country, it would rank as the world’s 118th largest, Teng noted – about the size of Trinidad and Tobago.

It also has become a place that can sustain itself economically, with a balance of housing and jobs that means many residents don’t need to commute outside the region to make a living.

In many ways, the region’s economy mirrors the rest of the county, which performs better than California and the country, Teng said. The unemployment rate in South County is 3.1 percent, lower than the county as a whole. The number of jobs in the region has increased by 10 percent since 2009, boosted by real estate and health care industries.

[pacific2]

South County growing strong, new economic report says - The Orange County Register

Given that South County is aging and home ownership is out of reach for many millennials, I wonder what percentage of the SC workforce commutes into this area from Central and North OC?

Of course, some South County millennial workers live here with their parents and others live in apartments.

Some way or another, though, it seems that millennials are adapting, even if the circumstances are less than ideal.

Still, they, like everyone else, continue to age and time moves swiftly. So, what happens to the current 10-15 year-old South County kids who will be ready to enter the job market in 3-8 years (professionals, maybe a bare minimum of 6-11 years) ? What about their future housing needs? How many of them will be able to boomerang and live with their now mostly twenty-something to early forty-something parents?

Just something to think about.

[pacific2]

South County growing strong, new economic report says - The Orange County Register

Maybe this is slightly OT, but, while the article above notes that there are few large corporations in South County, they do exist. Also, it states that some smaller firms must leave as they grow due to the high expense of maintaining office space here.

Still, some other companies, like these Aliso Viejo firms, grow and then are bought out (there is also a considerable amount of venture capital in places like AV).

Japanese firm Otsuka to buy Avanir Pharmaceuticals for $3.5 billion - LA Times

Dell Acquires Quest, a Big Software Maker, for $2.4 Billion
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/07/02/dell-to-buy-quest-software-for-2-4-billion/?_r=0

Aliso Viejo Delivery Company Part of $80M Buy | Orange County Business Journal

Suitors are eyeing Corent, another Aliso Viejo company:

PE Firms May Eye VC-Backed Cloud Migration Startups - Mergers & Acquisitions

The Pacific World Corporation generates about $25 annually in sales and is yet another successful AV firm up for sale:
Aliso Beauty Products Seller for Sale | Orange County Business Journal

[Marv101]

Any reports regarding the 'death of the suburbs' are ludicrous; folks have and will always want to live in safe neighborhoods in their own houses with good schools much to the consternation of tons of urban planners who are too stubborn to see anything other than what THEY believe folks want even when the reality is 100% the opposite with irrefutable stats from the Census Bureau and the CHFA. (Calif. Housing Finance Agency) as overwhelming proof.

Start with the imbeciles who proposed a light-rail system for Irvine which thankfully went nowhere, since such moronic and pointless projects are guaranteed money-wasters since their maintenance costs are staggering and never go down over time.

[LuvSouthOC]

Originally Posted by pacific2

South County growing strong, new economic report says - The Orange County Register

Maybe this is slightly OT, but, while the article above notes that there are few large corporations in South County, they do exist. Also, it states that some smaller firms must leave as they grow due to the high expense of maintaining office space here.

Still, some other companies, like these Aliso Viejo firms, grow and then are bought out (there is also a considerable amount of venture capital in places like AV).

Japanese firm Otsuka to buy Avanir Pharmaceuticals for $3.5 billion - LA Times

Dell Acquires Quest, a Big Software Maker, for $2.4 Billion
http://dealbook.nytimes.com/2012/07/02/dell-to-buy-quest-software-for-2-4-billion/?_r=0

Aliso Viejo Delivery Company Part of $80M Buy | Orange County Business Journal

Suitors are eyeing Corent, another Aliso Viejo company:

PE Firms May Eye VC-Backed Cloud Migration Startups - Mergers & Acquisitions

The Pacific World Corporation generates about $25 annually in sales and is yet another successful AV firm up for sale:
Aliso Beauty Products Seller for Sale | Orange County Business Journal

Thank you. These were very interesting articles! It is good to see our region getting more competitive in tech, etc.

I think long term, we will have problems in all of OC and especially south OC. If middle class workers have such difficulty affording housing, it will make us suffer in terms of competition with other areas irrespective of how high our QOL is or may be. On the other hand, we are heavily based on tourism here and thus I see south OC continuing to expand.

The greying of the area could impact competitiveness too. Thoughts?

[Urban Planner]

Originally Posted by Marv101

Any reports regarding the 'death of the suburbs' are ludicrous;

Start with the imbeciles who proposed a light-rail system for Irvine which thankfully went nowhere, since such moronic and pointless projects are guaranteed money-wasters since their maintenance costs are staggering and never go down over time.

Wow. Clueless you are.