Are we starting to hit the ceiling? (Laguna, Laguna Beach: loans, homes)

[Des-Lab]

Originally Posted by CaliRestoration

That's not saying much. Considering the amount of appreciation since 2009, if you are in a negative equity position, you seriously messed something up.

A home I own in Laguna Niguel

It's appreciated in price 160%.

That speaks more about the locality of Real Estate and not necessarily the overall market in general.


Case in point: My home in the Central Valley-which I bought new in mid 2009. Not at the top and not at the bottom, but definitely as the crash was in progress.


Now here nine years later, while you're lavishing on more than double appraised value, in the same time period, the value of *MY* home has only gone up *MAYBE* 25%. And that's a greedy, highball estimate.


If I were to sell today, I *MIGHT* pocket a whopping ten to fifteen percent gain.


So what did I do wrong except buy in a "sh*tty" area that people want to live (as evidenced by the plethora and flood of homes that can't be built and sold fast enough)...but has little to no price premium?


People that talk about Californias housing "shortage" are absolutely full of it. What they really mean is "a shortage of bargain priced houses in the most coveted and desired markets in the world".


It is still totally possible to get into a hell of a nice new or recent build SFH in a nice area in CA for under $250k. Hell, under $200k in many areas.


Just not in the most prestigious of areas though. That's the trade off.

[expatCA]

Originally Posted by CaliRestoration

I'm not saying this to brag, but to make the point that there are very few circumstances (that I can imagine) where someone actually comes out negative if they bought in the past decade.

But for those that bought in the last few years it still does not matter. They are above water not below. Some may have lost a job, divorced, lost a mate to death, etc and are now in foreclosure, but not like it was when things went bad.


I sold my CA home in the beginning of the fall in the market and still made 50% over what I paid for it a few years earlier.

[CaliRestoration]

Originally Posted by Des-Lab

People that talk about Californias housing "shortage" are absolutely full of it. What they really mean is "a shortage of bargain priced houses in the most coveted and desired markets in the world".


It is still totally possible to get into a hell of a nice new or recent build SFH in a nice area in CA for under $250k. Hell, under $200k in many areas.


Just not in the most prestigious of areas though. That's the trade off.

True. Most of the complaints that "my kids" can't live where they they were born usually originate from Beverly Hills, West LA, or South OC

I've always maintained, no one has an inherent right to live anywhere, whether they spent 20 years there, were born there, etc.

[payutenyodagimas]

Originally Posted by Des-Lab

Now here nine years later, while you're lavishing on more than double appraised value, in the same time period, the value of *MY* home has only gone up *MAYBE* 25%. And that's a greedy, highball estimate.


If I were to sell today, I *MIGHT* pocket a whopping ten to fifteen percent gain.


So what did I do wrong except buy in a "sh*tty" area that people want to live (as evidenced by the plethora and flood of homes that can't be built and sold fast enough)...but has little to no price premium?

at least you live in an inexpensive new and big house with a yard you can put up a basketball court or firing range

ow..how much is utility? 24 hr ac for 9 months and 24 hr heat for 3 months?

[Des-Lab]

Originally Posted by payutenyodagimas

at least you live in an inexpensive new and big house with a yard you can put up a basketball court or firing range

And I live on a small cul de sac. So in theory...a highly desirable location. But even that hasn't done diddly squat for my equity. I certainly haven't received any unsolicited offers to sell. Not a single one. Why? Because my town....like most towns in the Valley...are being absolutely flooded with new SFH construction. And most of them are very nice even if the classic cookie cutter/shades-of-beige variety. That's what most people still want. And they're selling. To whom, I have no idea. All I know is that they can't build them fast enough. And they are sold as soon as they are built. Often times, they are sold while still under construction. That's the difference between Central CA vs Northern or Southern CA: In the latter cases, your head is about to explode because you see how much you have to pay to get so little. In the Central Valley, your head will explode because of the sheer number of choices you have (literally thousands upon thousands) of brand new SFH's you can get for $300k or less. Like I said earlier, under $200k and you can still get something decent.


The dims of my house are: 4br+2ba. Single story. Built 2009. Just under 1900 sq ft on an approx. 8800sq ft lot. So it's got some room. Thing is that in the Valley, homes like that are dime a dozen. And when compared to pretty much all of SoCal, can be BOUGHT for about a dime.


But....it's just not Irvine or Santa Monica or even Eastvale. And for many, that's a deal-breaker. In SoCal, you're paying 20% for the home and 80% for the ZIP code it's located in.

Originally Posted by payutenyodagimas

ow..how much is utility? 24 hr ac for 9 months and 24 hr heat for 3 months?

Electric in the summer months is about $300, give or take and about $100 in the winter months. Gas is about $50 in the hot months and about $125 in the cold months.

[payutenyodagimas]

and i thought Wonderful Company couldnt find enough workers? so who are buying?

maybe they are anticipating the high speed train will make the CV a bedroom community of NorCal and SoCal?

[CaliRestoration]

Originally Posted by payutenyodagimas

and i thought Wonderful Company couldnt find enough workers? so who are buying?

maybe they are anticipating the high speed train will make the CV a bedroom community of NorCal and SoCal?

Sure, by 2120.

[CA4Now]

Originally Posted by CaliRestoration

I'm not saying this to brag, but to make the point that there are very few circumstances (that I can imagine) where someone actually comes out negative if they bought in the past decade.

There were plenty of people who bought when the market was up just before 2008, and sold near its bottom--of that housing cycle, anyway--3 to 4 years later. And plenty who did this in previous housing cycles. They had a job transfer, had to move, lost their job, had a major medical setback, whatever.

https://www.forbes.com/2008/01/27/ho...l#50496c852b5f

[CaliRestoration]

Originally Posted by CA4Now

There were plenty of people who bought when the market was up just before 2008

Yeah, sucks for them.

[CA4Now]

Originally Posted by pacific2

[color=#000000][font=&quot]Statewide, sales are down and prices are up

Something's up; not sure that it's prices, though.

https://la.curbed.com/2018/8/17/1770...ces-prediction