Any signs of a housing bubble in OC, specifically Irvine? (San Francisco: appointed, sale)

[bmw335xi]

I'm considering moving from Florida to Irvine. I've been there a few times already and like the area a lot. However, I'm waiting for the next housing bubble before making the move. I work from home (trade stocks). I'm planning to sell two properties and move into my rental in 2020 (my tenants lease expires) here in Florida until the next bubble. That way I won't be tied down by multiple houses in a housing crash.

I'm just curious as to your opinions, guesses, estimates, whatever you want to call them on if things look toppy or not.

Also, are there any other areas similar to Irvine that you would recommend? I'll be coming in early January to check out the area more... $1.25M or less, 2,500+ sq ft single family home, 3+ beds, 3+ bathrooms, good schools (preferably with a decent sized Asian population)...work from home, so that part doesn't matter.

[bad debt]

Originally Posted by bmw335xi

I'm considering moving from Florida to Irvine. I've been there a few times already and like the area a lot. However, I'm waiting for the next housing bubble before making the move. I work from home (trade stocks). I'm planning to sell two properties and move into my rental in 2020 (my tenants lease expires) here in Florida until the next bubble. That way I won't be tied down by multiple houses in a housing crash.

I'm just curious as to your opinions, guesses, estimates, whatever you want to call them on if things look toppy or not.

Also, are there any other areas similar to Irvine that you would recommend? I'll be coming in early January to check out the area more... $1.25M or less, 2,500+ sq ft single family home, 3+ beds, 3+ bathrooms, good schools (preferably with a decent sized Asian population)...work from home, so that part doesn't matter.

You should look at the historical prices of Irvine during the crash. If you're expecting what happened in Florida where you could scoop up foreclosures at 50 cents on the dollar to happen in Irvine sometime in the next decade, I feel you're going to be sorely disappointed. The "good" areas in coastal California did not go down much at all during the crash. In fact, the many "Asian" cities like Arcadia, La Canada, and San Marino actually went up in value from 2008-2012 while everything was going down.

[bmw335xi]

Originally Posted by bad debt

You should look at the historical prices of Irvine during the crash. If you're expecting what happened in Florida where you could scoop up foreclosures at 50 cents on the dollar to happen in Irvine sometime in the next decade, I feel you're going to be sorely disappointed. The "good" areas in coastal California did not go down much at all during the crash. In fact, the many "Asian" cities like Arcadia, La Canada, and San Marino actually went up in value from 2008-2012 while everything was going down.

Thanks for the reply!

I'm not expecting a crash like we saw after 2008. I got very lucky with my timing that I didn't buy a property until that crash happened and I picked up a condo in San Francisco that went down 50% from the previous high. However, there was a lot more shady things going on to cause such a crash back then. There are listings already in my price range given my criteria, but since I don't have to move now, I'd rather wait until the next recession. I will be selling two of my homes next year though, so I am serious about moving and want to be ready to go whenever that time comes.

I did look on zillow historical prices and it was showing data from Oct 2009...

Median sale price...

Oct 2009 - $572k
Apr 2012 - $487k
Aug 2018 - $862k
Sep 2019 - $830k

It also has it listed as a borderline strong buyers market (cold rating). However, I know locals know better than websites like zillow, which is why I was asking here. I'll do more research on the other cities mentioned.

Thanks again

[Electrician4you]

You’re not gonna see the deep drop like the first bubble pop. Even IF the economy does the exact thing like before banks are not going to hemorrhage houses like the last time. You’re gonna have a repeat of hedge funds and money investors, buying up huge swaths of houses and making them rentals. Hell Blackstone will buy houses like a drunk sailor on leave looking for hookers in Manila. Then mom and pop LL, people looking for cheap deal are gonna jump in to put their money in real estate as interest rates will go to crap.
Considering rates are what......3.8 on a 30 year now where can they go? I mean i have a 3.6 on my house. By the time I deduct my interest It’s basically cheap money.
Hell if the market tanks I’ll jump back in and buy something.

[CA4Now]

Originally Posted by bmw335xi

I'm considering moving from Florida to Irvine. I've been there a few times already and like the area a lot. However, I'm waiting for the next housing bubble before making the move.

http://www.city-data.com/forum/orang...te-trends.html

[bmw335xi]

Originally Posted by Electrician4you

You’re not gonna see the deep drop like the first bubble pop. Even IF the economy does the exact thing like before banks are not going to hemorrhage houses like the last time. You’re gonna have a repeat of hedge funds and money investors, buying up huge swaths of houses and making them rentals. Hell Blackstone will buy houses like a drunk sailor on leave looking for hookers in Manila. Then mom and pop LL, people looking for cheap deal are gonna jump in to put their money in real estate as interest rates will go to crap.
Considering rates are what......3.8 on a 30 year now where can they go? I mean i have a 3.6 on my house. By the time I deduct my interest It’s basically cheap money.
Hell if the market tanks I’ll jump back in and buy something.

Thank you! Yeah, I'm not expecting that to happen. I think the next recession won't be an overnight crash like we saw in 2008. Maybe flat growth and then companies start scaling back hiring, expansions, investments, which slowly leads to negative growth over time and homes sitting on the market a long time, eventually forcing them to slowly reduce their price. I'm not a fortune teller, but I've done well in life thus far by being patient and at this point in time, I think we are closer to a top than a bottom, so it would make financial sense for me to sell my properties besides the one I live in to lock in those gains and free up capital so I can move when the next recession comes about and not have to worry about I need to do X, Y, Z before I can move.

[bmw335xi]

Originally Posted by CA4Now

http://www.city-data.com/forum/orang...te-trends.html

Thank you, perfect.

[Finper]

Originally Posted by bmw335xi

Thank you! Yeah, I'm not expecting that to happen. I think the next recession won't be an overnight crash like we saw in 2008. Maybe flat growth and then companies start scaling back hiring, expansions, investments, which slowly leads to negative growth over time and homes sitting on the market a long time, eventually forcing them to slowly reduce their price. I'm not a fortune teller, but I've done well in life by being patient and at this point in time, I think we are closer to a top than a bottom, so it would make financial sense for me to sell my properties besides the one I live in until the next recession comes about.

OC real estate has been flat for going on 2 years. My neighbor tried to sell his beautiful house in the hills for just over a million for 6 months and couldn't do it. He's wealthy so just took it off the market and will keep it for a while. Everything I've read about our RE says more of the same next year. It might be a good time to buy now but we have a idiot liberal for gov so you never know what he's going to do next. He could singularly crash our RE in Ca

[bad debt]

Originally Posted by Finper

OC real estate has been flat for going on 2 years. My neighbor tried to sell his beautiful house in the hills for just over a million for 6 months and couldn't do it. He's wealthy so just took it off the market and will keep it for a while. Everything I've read about our RE says more of the same next year. It might be a good time to buy now but we have a idiot liberal for gov so you never know what he's going to do next. He could singularly crash our RE in Ca

You mean kind of how that idiot conservative president crashed the economy in 2007? Or how the idiot liberal in California lead the greatest recovery post 2008?

You also feel the need to bring up political issues when you are completely uninformed and demonstrably biased.

[Axxlrod]

I guess the OP likes paying taxes and wants to pay more.