Why is Orange County Still Republican? (Davis, Arnold: fit in, sales, insurance)

[ocexpo]

Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, Ventura, and Orange County are all still funamentally Republican Counties with Republican registration majorities. Residents just weren't that thrilled with the McCain/Palin ticket. This is ONE election in over 40 that ALL those counties haven't gone Republican. It will go Republican next time (assuming a close race) all these counties will still send Republican representatives to the capital....Southern California (except for LA county) is still fundamentally Republican that did not vote Republican in one election.

Now, why is being Republican so bad? Not all of us like socialism. Maybe you should move to San Francisco, nobody will disagree with you up there.

[brianguy]

Originally Posted by happ

It helps your credibility when you can back-up what you propose. When has the "swing" moved to the Right in Los Angeles county? Schwarzenegger won the governorship but found out quickly & painfully that California is NOT a Republican-friendly state. Los Angeles county hasn't voted for a Republican in over 20 yrs. When the GOP became a party for evangelicals\mormons it lost California & that hasn't changed since. There is no data to indicate anything but a stronger state for the Democratic party. You can be sure the next governor will be Democratic & that the Republicans will continue to lose elections until the GOP severs all contact with the Religious Right ASAP

wait, when did I say LA was Republican?

I certainly alluded to the fact LA and SF counties were the exception to the rule, not the rule. any places that are that staunchly liberal (SF even moreso than OC is conservative, and LA not far behind) are not going to swing with the general electorate no matter what happens.

[happ]

Originally Posted by ocexpo

Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, Ventura, and Orange County are all still funamentally Republican Counties with Republican registration majorities. Residents just weren't that thrilled with the McCain/Palin ticket. This is ONE election in over 40 that ALL those counties haven't gone Republican. It will go Republican next time (assuming a close race) all these counties will still send Republican representatives to the capital....Southern California (except for LA county) is still fundamentally Republican that did not vote Republican in one election.

Now, why is being Republican so bad? Not all of us like socialism. Maybe you should move to San Francisco, nobody will disagree with you up there.

Where are you getting your information? Before this election, counties like Ventura were just barely Republican-majority. If the people of a county vote in favor of a Democrat it usually means that they are now Democratic-majority counties. Please provide data for your claim.

If you think that California is going to go back to being a Republican state than you are highly misinformed. California hasn't voted for a Republican president in 20 yrs. When is it going to swing GOP again?

The issue is that Republicans lost voters in every county in California while Democrats have gained in every county. To suggest a GOP revival is nothing more than pure folly

[happ]

Originally Posted by brianguy

wait, when did I say LA was Republican?

I certainly alluded to the fact LA and SF counties were the exception to the rule, not the rule. any places that are that staunchly liberal (SF even moreso than OC is conservative, and LA not far behind) are not going to swing with the general electorate no matter what happens.

Sorry, I didn't read your original post correctly

Your statement about the Bay Area & Los Angeles being more liberal than other counties may be correct but keep in mind that these 2 regions have nearly 80% of California's population. So it doesn't matter how many other small farm counties vote Republican they lose to the majority in the state.

[ocexpo]

Originally Posted by happ

Where are you getting your information? Before this election, counties like Ventura were just barely Republican-majority. If the people of a county vote in favor of a Democrat it usually means that they are now Democratic-majority counties. Please provide data for your claim.

If you think that California is going to go back to being a Republican state than you are highly misinformed. California hasn't voted for a Republican president in 20 yrs. When is it going to swing GOP again?

The issue is that Republicans lost voters in every county in California while Democrats have gained in every county. To suggest a GOP revival is nothing more than pure folly

I am not speaking of California, now am I?

Orange County has seen a decrease of 1% in Registered Republicans and an increase of 0.8% in Registered Democrats. Tuesday's results are not indicative of a "changing" trend in the county, just the results of ONE election and the regions approval of ONE candidate. Like I said, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, Ventura, and Orange County are all still fundamentally Republican counties despite these results. I mentioned the factors above that made this such a strong victory for Obama in Republican California Counties. It has NOTHING to do with a massive change in "party", just a few small factors that really dont have anything to do with one party or another.

[majoun]

Originally Posted by ocexpo

Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, Ventura, and Orange County are all still funamentally Republican Counties with Republican registration majorities.

I don't think that's true of San Diego or Ventura counties anymore. Those would now be in the category of "swing" counties. They used to be fundamentally Republican counties, but then San Francisco used to be fundamentally Republican when California was a fundamentally Republican state. The only large urban county in CA that's never been a fundamentally Republican county is L.A. County, which before becoming solidly Dem was split between Republicans and moderate/conservative Dems. Eastern Ventura County has seen a sizeable number of Jews moving there from the San Fernando Valley in recent years, and thus definitely turning blue.

Riverside County has been as Republican as OC but demographic changes are going to change things. San Bernardino County has a rapidly growing African American population which suggests that it won't be Republican territory for long unless the GOP somehow remedies its "black problem".

Residents just weren't that thrilled with the McCain/Palin ticket. This is ONE election in over 40 that ALL those counties haven't gone Republican. It will go Republican next time (assuming a close race) all these counties will still send Republican representatives to the capital.

It's hard to defeat incumbents. But eventually things will change.

...Southern California (except for LA county) is still fundamentally Republican that did not vote Republican in one election.

Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Diego are all swing counties which could go either way. There is a good chance Ventura may fall into the "blue" category as it's the SoCal county most influenced by L.A. County. If the GOP remains the exclusive preserve of Old White Christian Guys than its future in CA is doomed, especially if it refers to Arnold as a "RINO". Some people need their history lessons - most of the CA governors when CA was a Republican state were moderates from San Francisco and the rest of the bay area. If anything it's the conservatives who are the "RINOs".

Now, why is being Republican so bad? Not all of us like socialism. Maybe you should move to San Francisco, nobody will disagree with you up there.

San Francisco used to be as Republican as OC....that's a clue that things can change.

[happ]

Originally Posted by ocexpo

I am not speaking of California, now am I?

Orange County has seen a decrease of 1% in Registered Republicans and an increase of 0.8% in Registered Democrats. Tuesday's results are not indicative of a "changing" trend in the county, just the results of ONE election and the regions approval of ONE candidate. Like I said, Riverside, San Bernardino, San Diego, Ventura, and Orange County are all still fundamentally Republican counties despite these results. I mentioned the factors above that made this such a strong victory for Obama in Republican California Counties. It has NOTHING to do with a massive change in "party", just a few small factors that really dont have anything to do with one party or another.

Counties with a majority of Democratic voters who vote Democratic are Democratic not Republican As majoun correctly points out, California is not a White Protestant stronghold like Utah. Each county including Orange county becomes more diverse each year. When formerly Republican counties start voting Democratic then the "writing is on the wall." San Bernardino\ Riverside & Ventura counties have been steadily moving to the Left each election & now have become majority Democratic.

What's amazing is that San Diego also turned Democratic. What many are suggesting is that the military vote went to Obama. When the armed forces turn strongly Democratic then it is time for Republicans to wake up & realize what is happening to them. This is not just a California transformation; it is happening all over the nation.

When will Republicans become competitive? Unless they sever all ties to the Religious Right they will remain an impotent "Southern Party" [and that's from a Republican scholar: Ed Rollins.

[Species 8472]

The Republican party these days is comprised of what I like to call the three R's--the redneck, the rich, and the religious fanatic.

I'll let you decide where most in Orange County fall.

[brianguy]

Originally Posted by happ

Sorry, I didn't read your original post correctly

Your statement about the Bay Area & Los Angeles being more liberal than other counties may be correct but keep in mind that these 2 regions have nearly 80% of California's population. So it doesn't matter how many other small farm counties vote Republican they lose to the majority in the state.

true, though I was technically referring to SF & LA counties only... obviously the surrounding SF Bay area (Alameda, etc) is also pretty liberal, but not nearly as staunch as SF or maybe even LA county

it's funny because I grew up in LA county and I never really considered it leaning left (now far left). obviously it's moved, but my eyes have really opened to that fact since the early 90s when it became much more pronounced.

[brianguy]

Originally Posted by majoun

Ventura, Santa Barbara, and San Diego are all swing counties which could go either way. There is a good chance Ventura may fall into the "blue" category as it's the SoCal county most influenced by L.A. County. If the GOP remains the exclusive preserve of Old White Christian Guys than its future in CA is doomed, especially if it refers to Arnold as a "RINO". Some people need their history lessons - most of the CA governors when CA was a Republican state were moderates from San Francisco and the rest of the bay area. If anything it's the conservatives who are the "RINOs".

FYI (in case you were referring to my post), there's a reason I put "RINO" in quotes. I don't really use that term, nor am I a believer Arnold is one of them. I used it because I have heard some others derogatively use that term towards Arnold.