Housing Bottom? (Irvine, Newport Beach, Temecula: loan, vacation home, buying)

[Soccersupporter]

Originally Posted by cabolissa

Even if the home prices fall, it won't make up for the bubble effect... And with all due respect, the average guy won't be able to afford a home, RESPONSIBLY, in Orange County.

Orange County, CA
Estimated median household income in 2007: $73,263 ($58,820 in 1999)
Estimated median house or condo value in 2007: $670,600 (it was $253,000 in 2000)
So, 10 years ago, a house in OC used to cost a little over 4x's the median income. Last year, it was over 9x's the median income!

I'll be relocating to the Round Rock, Tx area where the cost of living makes sense, and a home costs 2x's the median income:
Williamson County, TX
Estimated median household income in 2007: $68,008 ($60,642 in 1999)
Estimated median house or condo value in 2007: $170,900 (it was $123,900 in 2000)

Round Rock is a beautiful area. People think CA is the only place to live. I have to admit that if my daughter had not moved to TX and my wife had not bugged me for 2 years about moving here I probably would not have. You just don't think things could be better outside of CA until you try it. I know it is not for some people but I have met many that have left and never regretted the move. It is just a matter of priorities I guess.

[Charles]

Originally Posted by Soccersupporter

I have to admit that if my daughter had not moved to TX....

Would you have moved to Texas if your daughter hadn't moved there?

[Soccersupporter]

Originally Posted by Charles

Would you have moved to Texas if your daughter hadn't moved there?

You know Charles I don't know. I was one of those that could not think of leaving CA. I started investigating housing in TX when my wife kept bugging me and the next thing I know we have a brand new 3500 sq. ft. house on a quarter acre lot and money in the bank. It just took some pressure from the family.

I know if I were in CA I would be in serious hurt right now. We used our equity to put our first 2 through college and like most Californians lived off our house. Thank God we had purchased back in the eighties and even after everything we bought using our equity we were able to buy a house cash and put money in the bank. We were just one of the success stories. Unfortunately I think we may have been one of the last.

[Charles]

Originally Posted by Soccersupporter

We were just one of the success stories. Unfortunately I think we may have been one of the last.

We bought in 1997 and sold in 2006, at d(price)/dt = 0. Moved to places where there was no bubble to burst, thus retaining our equity. That's where we're at now. But, our emotional magnet is in California because that's where our parents are.

California seems so unstable now - as is much of the country. It might be better in two or three years.

The success stories might just start again [licks chops] as California real estate falls like a lead zeppelin.

[Soccersupporter]

Originally Posted by Charles

We bought in 1997 and sold in 2006, at d(price)/dt = 0. Moved to places where there was no bubble to burst, thus retaining our equity. That's where we're at now. And, our emotional magnet is in California because that's where our parents are.

California seems so unstable now - as is much of the country. It might be better in two or three years.

The success stories might just start again [licks chops] as California real estate falls like a lead zeppelin.

My wife expects to inherit some money when her parents pass away and she has talked about moving back someday, perhaps for retirement, but I seriously doubt it. She just loves our granddaughter to death and with another on the way... I think she also likes not having to work.

[sheri257]

Originally Posted by Soccersupporter

You just don't think things could be better outside of CA until you try it.

Well ... my situation was the other way around. I lived on the east coast, the south and Texas before moving to California so, to me, this place is the ultimate. I can't imagine going back but, obviously, places like Texas do work for some people.

A lot of this is ultimately going to depend on how much housing drops. If it gets really affordable I think a lot of people are going to want to come back.

[hsw]

Lots of comparing apples to oranges to claim CA is much more expensive than rest of US...or that TX or IL is sooo cheap

IMO, only real comparables are suburbs of major urban regions (w/high-income jobs) w/similar, newer housing stock; excellent public schools; and easy proximity to major job centers....and need to value places w/a higher concentration of profitable cos. w/high-income jobs (career mobility) and value of near-perfect weather (and lack of "need" to escape slush or humidity via costly vacations)

Have yet to find a major difference in pricing Irvine vs west Plano, TX vs Naperville, IL, etc...and many of most elite suburban areas of Dallas/Houston are actually far more costly (land costs) than SiliconValley's most costly suburbs

And affluent areas tend to hold up prices longer in a deep recession, until they also plummet....nearly every major co. is doing 5-10%+ layoffs; most affluent, but unemployed, workers can hold out for 6-12mos before needing to sell house...doubt will really see many distress sales in Irvine (or similar suburbs) until late '09

[EscapeCalifornia]

Originally Posted by hsw

Have yet to find a major difference in pricing Irvine vs west Plano, TX vs Naperville, IL, etc...and many of most elite suburban areas of Dallas/Houston are actually far more costly (land costs) than SiliconValley's most costly suburbs

Of course there's high end areas in and around any city. But if you can't find affordable housing in good neighborhoods close to job centers in other states, you're not looking hard enough. Most of us aren't looking for "elite suburbs". We're looking for a nice place to live that's not $500k or 40 miles from work. You can get a nice house in Highlands Ranch or Centennial, Colorado (very Irvine-ish) starting between $200k and $250k. Try that in Irvine.

[Soccersupporter]

Originally Posted by EscapeCalifornia

Of course there's high end areas in and around any city. But if you can't find affordable housing in good neighborhoods close to job centers in other states, you're not looking hard enough. Most of us aren't looking for "elite suburbs". We're looking for a nice place to live that's not $500k or 40 miles from work. You can get a nice house in Highlands Ranch or Centennial, Colorado (very Irvine-ish) starting between $200k and $250k. Try that in Irvine.

I bought a new home for around $250,000. I work 20 miles from my home. It is easily the equivalent of a million+ house in OC. There is no comparison between the 2 housing markets, CA vs TX.

[sheri257]

Originally Posted by Soccersupporter

I bought a new home for around $250,000. I work 20 miles from my home. It is easily the equivalent of a million+ house in OC.

C'mon .... the equivalent of a million dollar house in OC? Ridiculous ...

The OC homes that are selling for a million plus right now are typically in Laguna Beach or Newport Coast. In other words ... ocean front property or very close to the ocean.

Sorry but Keller, Texas is no where near the equivalent of that ... nor will it ever be.