Ladera Ranch housing market conditions (low income, real estate, 2011)

[milenna]

I just came across this site.... wow! Had I known this existed I would have been on this years ago. So informative!

Perhaps someone could answer my question. I lived in Ladera Ranch from 2002-2005. We sold our house in June 2005 (at the top, or near the top of the housing bubble). My husband had a job transfer so we moved to northern CA. We really didn't want to leave Ladera as we loved the community, the weather, the amenities, etc. Anyways, we have toyed with the idea of trying to move back in 3-4 years to take advantage of the lower home prices.

When do you all see the bottom of the LR housing market occuring? We have watched prices and definitely seen them go down significantly, but will this continue? And if so, how much lower will prices fall?

I know no one has a crystal ball and it's SO hard to predict these sorts of things. We'd just love some insight on when to make that "leap" back into the south OC should we ever have the chance to do it!

[milenna]

Any insight?

[missionhome]

I don't think any of us are experts at this and all we would be doing is speculating (part of what everybody did in Ladera and why many are losing their homes). I think prices will fall a little bit more before leveling out, while someone else might think we have reached the bottom. I would maybe track homes I was interested in and then watch and wait until prices seem they might start to increase again and then buy.

[milenna]

I agree... all we're doing is speculating. I have started to "track" some homes we'd consider. We're really not in a position to move for at least 2 years. I read reports about the OC economy being in the dumps and how LR real estate is one of the worst performing parts of OC. With unemployment so high and ARMs due to re-set in the coming years, I guess I wonder: Will LR real estate continue to spiral down for some time to come?

[buynow]

oc was the last to drop compared to other sorounding counties. still dropping i think. mortgage rate will be lowest in winter 09. may be a good time to get in. use the rent to own ratio. if cost of ownership is almost equal to rent, then you really can't go wrong no matter when you buy. ladera has very high tax rate. consider laguna niguel. i lived in aliso viejo for years.

Christopher Thornberg of Beacon (former USC economist) is forecasting a bottom in 2010. he said he will buy a house in carlsbad then. this guy was dead on when he forecasted the collapse of the housing market. check him out

higher home prices is almost guaranteed to return because of fed unloading huge sums of money in circulation. the us dollar will devalue to historic proportion in the coming years thus-higher prices for everything.

dont hold on to your cash. if you dont buy a house, buy stocks at least.

[killer2021]

You have to wait for the alt-a crisis to get passed us which peaks out around 2011-2012. the alt-a mortgages were given to supposedly better borrowers but the principal loan amounts were also higher. So more upper class areas will get hit harder with all the foreclosures that will result. The subprime loans were mainly given to low income borrowers so mainly low income areas were affected. The next shoe to drop is the value on these 500-600k+ homes.

Not to mention job loses will also rip to shred home values. Income and home price go hand in hand as well as unemployment rates.

[milenna]

Originally Posted by killer2021

You have to wait for the alt-a crisis to get passed us which peaks out around 2011-2012. the alt-a mortgages were given to supposedly better borrowers but the principal loan amounts were also higher. So more upper class areas will get hit harder with all the foreclosures that will result. The subprime loans were mainly given to low income borrowers so mainly low income areas were affected. The next shoe to drop is the value on these 500-600k+ homes.

Not to mention job loses will also rip to shred home values. Income and home price go hand in hand as well as unemployment rates.

This is what I'm thinking.... I really don't see the bottom until 2012 or beyond because of these re-sets and the job market. But again, no one really knows.