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Old 05-12-2009, 12:37 PM
 
28 posts, read 55,864 times
Reputation: 10

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Hello everyone, I'm hoping on getting some solid financial feedback from people on the board. Of the other similar posts I have read on here, I've seen a good amount of research and advice from the posters and I'm hoping for more of the same on my current situation.

My wife and I followed jobs out to Irvine about a year and a half ago and we are currently renting a one bedroom in a very nice complex for $1950/mo. We own a three bedroom townhouse (Interest Only Fixed Rate) mortgage that we are renting out for roughly 70% of the monthly mortgage payments. We have a decent amount of credit card debt as well as school loans.

My question is, in this volatile real estate market where it seems as though home prices are somewhat affordable, do we go ahead and try to buy the beach condo we dream of (if affordable) or do we play wait and see what the market does, in the meantime pay off credit and refinance our townhouse with a more respectable loan?

Even though the market can still spiral down somewhat, I do believe we would make out in the long run if we intend on living there for 10+ years.

Your opinions are greatly appreciated,


Kyle in Irvine
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Old 05-12-2009, 12:59 PM
 
Location: Las Flores, Orange County, CA
26,329 posts, read 93,729,143 times
Reputation: 17831
How much do you owe in credit cards? Student loans?
What is your combined income? Kids in the five year plan? Two incomes after that?

How much is this target beach condo going for now?
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Old 05-12-2009, 02:31 PM
 
1,976 posts, read 6,852,517 times
Reputation: 2559
Where is the 3 bdrm townhouse? With the way you have financed that and add credit card debt and student loan, I say try to off load some of those if possible before acquiring any new debt.
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Old 05-12-2009, 03:07 PM
 
28 posts, read 55,864 times
Reputation: 10
Combined income of $175K...5 year plan for kids...student loans about $70K between the two of us....credit about 10K...townhouse is in NJ roughly $20K upside down @ $350K...which isn't bad considering we bought in 2006. Beach condo is in Dana Pointe @ $345K with an FHA 3.5% down.
Appreciate all inputs...however, I have a feeling I know what your answers are going to be but it comes down to a basic question: invest vs. pay down debts???

Everyone I know with a real estate background has told me (A) owning a home is the best long term investment and (B) If you can afford to, NEVER SELL a property. Your thoughts?
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Old 05-12-2009, 07:32 PM
 
3,853 posts, read 12,863,253 times
Reputation: 2529
Quote:
Originally Posted by wvspecialkvw View Post
Combined income of $175K...5 year plan for kids...student loans about $70K between the two of us....credit about 10K...townhouse is in NJ roughly $20K upside down @ $350K...which isn't bad considering we bought in 2006. Beach condo is in Dana Pointe @ $345K with an FHA 3.5% down.
Appreciate all inputs...however, I have a feeling I know what your answers are going to be but it comes down to a basic question: invest vs. pay down debts???

Everyone I know with a real estate background has told me (A) owning a home is the best long term investment and (B) If you can afford to, NEVER SELL a property. Your thoughts?
If the student loans are low interest rate (like under 5%) just pay the minimum each month. Credit cards pay those off immediately. If you miss a payment the interest rate will jump up very high. Never hold a balance on a credit card.

The townhouse is on a IO fixed rate and you are renting it out for 70% of those payments? What a nice person you are. You are basically paying 30% of the interest payment for the renters. Also the interest only loan is just basically renting the house from the bank, you'll never own it ever if you don't refinance to something like a 30 year fixed. I would sell the house and take the loss.

Don't buy the condo. First off you should put 20% down, not 3.5%. Second, when you do your affordability calculation use a 30 year year fixed rate loan, nothing else. Finally when you do your affordability calculation you should only spend less than 30% of your net income on your house. If it goes over that, you can't afford.

If you think homes are affordable now, wait until summer of 2012 when all this housing mess is done with. We still have the alt-a crisis to go through, that is going to kill prices in south OC. Watch this:

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=w_r-ASDViF8

Quote:
Everyone I know with a real estate background has told me (A) owning a home is the best long term investment and (B) If you can afford to, NEVER SELL a property. Your thoughts?
They aren't too smart. They are still in the mind set that homes go up in value every year. That isn't the case anymore. Prices will never reach 2006 levels again for at least 10 years. Yea, great long term investment. I agree with the never selling a property but that is only if you bought the house on a solid financial foundation. If you put 20% down 30 year fixed and the property is cash flowing for a nice 10% return. Then yes, don't sell the property. If you bought the property with interest only loan, and renting it out for 10% loss each year. Sell it and sell it fast. The main reason you don't want to buy and sell properties is because you have to pay taxes and you have to pay a hefty 6% selling fee.

Only buy properties when you are on a solid foundation and you actually have the cash to put down.
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Old 05-12-2009, 07:50 PM
 
Location: Las Flores, Orange County, CA
26,329 posts, read 93,729,143 times
Reputation: 17831
Quote:
Originally Posted by killer2021 View Post
If you think homes are affordable now, wait until summer of 2012 when all this housing mess is done with. We still have the alt-a crisis to go through, that is going to kill prices in south OC. Watch this:


YouTube - The Mortgage Meltdown
Wow.

Very illustrative.
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Old 05-13-2009, 07:22 AM
 
Location: Irvine
257 posts, read 945,911 times
Reputation: 114
Quote:
Originally Posted by killer2021 View Post
If the student loans are low interest rate (like under 5%) just pay the minimum each month. Credit cards pay those off immediately. If you miss a payment the interest rate will jump up very high. Never hold a balance on a credit card.

The townhouse is on a IO fixed rate and you are renting it out for 70% of those payments? What a nice person you are. You are basically paying 30% of the interest payment for the renters. Also the interest only loan is just basically renting the house from the bank, you'll never own it ever if you don't refinance to something like a 30 year fixed. I would sell the house and take the loss.

Don't buy the condo. First off you should put 20% down, not 3.5%. Second, when you do your affordability calculation use a 30 year year fixed rate loan, nothing else. Finally when you do your affordability calculation you should only spend less than 30% of your net income on your house. If it goes over that, you can't afford.

If you think homes are affordable now, wait until summer of 2012 when all this housing mess is done with. We still have the alt-a crisis to go through, that is going to kill prices in south OC. Watch this:


YouTube - The Mortgage Meltdown



They aren't too smart. They are still in the mind set that homes go up in value every year. That isn't the case anymore. Prices will never reach 2006 levels again for at least 10 years. Yea, great long term investment. I agree with the never selling a property but that is only if you bought the house on a solid financial foundation. If you put 20% down 30 year fixed and the property is cash flowing for a nice 10% return. Then yes, don't sell the property. If you bought the property with interest only loan, and renting it out for 10% loss each year. Sell it and sell it fast. The main reason you don't want to buy and sell properties is because you have to pay taxes and you have to pay a hefty 6% selling fee.

Only buy properties when you are on a solid foundation and you actually have the cash to put down.
I totally agree. And I also think in a down market that is predicted to go down even further, that it is stupid to not wait it out. Why buy a depreciating asset like that?

I also feel that it is the right time to buy when the cost to own does not blow the cost to rent out of the water. If it costs you $1500/month to rent a condo in Dana Point, then why buy one that costs $3000/month to own??? Here is an excellent calculator to us to determine the price difference between renting and owning:

Irvine Housing Blog - Irvine Real Estate

As for me......I am DEBT FREE. I owe nobody nothing. I even buy my used cars for cash. I am only willing to go into debt for a mortgage - but I rent because I will not buy in a declining market where the prices are overblown. I think this country would be in alot better shape if more Americans lived this way.
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Old 05-13-2009, 07:24 AM
 
Location: Irvine
257 posts, read 945,911 times
Reputation: 114
Still not convinced?

Then read this article entitled "10 Reasons Why Buying a Home in Southern California Today is a Mistake":


10 Reasons Why Buying a Home in Southern California today is a Mistake. California Housing and Financial Market Analysis produces no Green Shoots. » Dr. Housing Bubble Blog
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Old 05-13-2009, 09:21 AM
 
144 posts, read 318,689 times
Reputation: 163
I think it's definitely time to buy. My brother in-law just bought a 3bdrs house in Lake Forest for 430K last month. He used to live in 2 bedrooms apartment and the rent is about the same as the his mortgage plus taxes. OC property values are high not just because of the good weather but jobs (a lot more than Riverside and San Diego).

Just keep three things in mind, location, location, location.
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Old 05-13-2009, 11:06 AM
 
745 posts, read 1,284,064 times
Reputation: 1470
1st time buyers in certain income brackets have access to some nice down payment assistance via Affordable Housing Clearinghouse and I heard recently that in June, Corona was going to offer up to $100k assistance if you buy a foreclosure. At a seminar I attended, the lady from the OC MAP program was saying her daughter bought an $850k house near Temecula three years ago and today it's valued at $385k. Ouch.

What about those ARM loans resetting in 2010/2012. Someone on another thread was saying the reason Irvine hasn't dropped like other areas is because of all the ARM loans in 2004/2005 haven't reset yet.
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