HELP! Home prices in South O.C (Orange, Aliso Viejo: short sale, lease)

[Scott5280]

How many of you are actively trying to sell a property? My father had a condo( considered an investment) LOL... listed with a local broker in Villa Point(Newport Beach) condo until two weeks ago...decided to rent it.. It was listed from May 2008-July2009= 250k price drop,3-4 showings a month, everything but real reasonable offers except for spam kings..OC is on the rebound? In comparison .... similar priced High Country Colorado towns are much more in demand without serious price reductions..Sorry to sound like a broken record , but not too many locals and outsiders like myself are bullish on OC. real estate at the moment. Where are you headed? Who knows, but you can buy prime Laguna Beach Woods Cove, even Forest avenue and Heisler Park, Ocean Avenue,Cypress St. N-S PCH real-estate for at least 200k less than last year... Sea Isle,Villa Balboa,Versallies,,15th-55th and Sea Shore..Newport...same story....These are supposed to be the desirable regions, and OC housing numbers are improving?

[Charles]

Originally Posted by Scott5280

My father had a condo( considered an investment) LOL... listed with a local broker in Villa Point(Newport Beach) condo until two weeks ago...decided to rent it.. It was listed from May 2008-July2009= 250k price drop,3-4 showings a month, everything but real reasonable offers except for spam kings..OC is on the rebound? In comparison .... similar priced High Country Colorado towns are much more in demand without serious price reductions..Sorry to sound like a broken record , but not too many locals and outsiders like myself are bullish on OC. real estate at the moment. Where are you headed? Who knows, but you can buy prime Laguna Beach Woods Cove, even Forest avenue and Heisler Park, Ocean Avenue,Cypress St. N-S PCH real-estate for at least 200k less than last year... Sea Isle,Villa Balboa,Versallies,,15th-55th and Sea Shore..Newport...same story....These are supposed to be the desirable regions, and OC housing numbers are improving?

We don't know the whole story (and I didn't look these locations up on a map) but $250K is relative to the going selling prices. What are similar homes selling for? When I read "Newport Beach" and "Laguna Beach", I don't think of Joe the Plumber; I think of numbers with an "M" on the end, like $2.8M, or $2.2M. What's a measly $250K in those cases?



I see drops of more than $250K in upper middle class neighborhoods in Ladera Ranch (median income $104K).

[Scott5280]

Originally Posted by Charles

We don't know the whole story (and I didn't look these locations up on a map) but $250K is relative to the going selling prices. What are similar homes selling for? When I read "Newport Beach" and "Laguna Beach", I don't think of Joe the Plumber; I think of numbers with an "M" on the end, like $2.8M, or $2.2M. What's a measly $250K in those cases?



I see drops of more than $250K in upper middle class neighborhoods in Ladera Ranch (median income $104K).

These are condos in the-1.5-2 m range..but again I said at least 250k sometimes more like 500-700. The high end real estate market in Denver..places like Cherry Creek North where you have $1,000 psf+. often only core and shell..and one bedroom condo units starting at one million-going up to nearly ten million are still happening here..almost sold out..not strong..but not going down in price ..mere chump change for Aspen and Vail..http://www.northcreekdenver.com/

[Charles]

Originally Posted by Scott5280

These are condos in the-1.5-2 m range..but again I said at least 250k sometimes more like 500-700. The high end real estate market in Denver..places like Cherry Creek North where you have 1000 psf. and one bedroom condo units starting at one million-going up to nearly ten are still happening here..not strong..but not going down..mere chump change for Aspen and Vail..NorthCreek Denver - Offering luxury condos, brownstones, flats and retail space in Cherry Creek.

The other question is, how many standard deviations are these homes away from the mean? We're talking about a very small percentage of homes. People that buy those homes don't seek relocation information on City Data forum.

[Scott5280]

Originally Posted by Charles

The other question is, how many standard deviations are these homes away from the mean? We're talking about a very small percentage of homes. People that buy those homes don't seek relocation information on City Data forum.

I worked the luxury market in Laguna/Newport for a while several years back.. and yes people are not shopping virtual tours or asking Willie from Idaho what he thinks about Corona Del Mar..but this substantial price deviation in regions does not look good for immediate recovery at least as of now for OC,that's of course just my opinion..I was one of those happy speculators a few years ago who threw a few irons in the fire, left them in too long and got burned.."oh well live and learn and now I sell pencils on the corner to passers by"...

[Charles]

According Redfin, the median price per square foot for (just) houses has increased more than insignificantly in the past six months in these two south OC zips:

92679: Trabuco/Coto, April $274, October $308
92688: RSM, May $261, October $286

Why is this?

I can see median prices increasing if more higher priced homes are selling, but $/sqft is sort of a normalizing metric - and it is increasing. The only thing I can WAG at is more homes with higher $/sqft are selling. Perhaps smaller homes, say 2000-2500 sqft, sell at a higher $/sqft than larger homes 3000-3500 sqft. So a 2000 sqft home sells at $280/sqft ($560K) and a 3000 sqft home sells at $240/sqft ($720K). Perhaps there are just not enough buyers who can now afford $700K+ homes so there is higher demand for sub $600K homes - even if they are smaller. So, the smaller homes with their higher $/sqft bump up the median $/sqft for a zip. And this happens even as homes in that zip are losing value. Again, this is just a guess.

Here are the trend graphs if you want to check it out yourselves

92679 Real Estate | Redfin
92688 Real Estate | Redfin

[CAVA1990]

I think now is an excellent time to buy since sellers are probably at their most desperate. The tight credit we're seeing is holding back demand somewhat but that won't last forever. Congress doesn't have the political will to put real controls on lenders and eventually cheap Chinese money will have have to flow somewhere. As for generational concerns, that might apply to housing in less desirable areas but you're always going to have a steady stream of folks who want to live the California dream.

[Charles]

Originally Posted by CAVA1990

I think now is an excellent time to buy since sellers are probably at their most desperate. The tight credit we're seeing is holding back demand somewhat but that won't last forever. Congress doesn't have the political will to put real controls on lenders and eventually cheap Chinese money will have have to flow somewhere. As for generational concerns, that might apply to housing in less desirable areas but you're always going to have a steady stream of folks who want to live the California dream.

So why is $/sqft increasing?

[CAVA1990]

Originally Posted by Charles

So why is $/sqft increasing?

I think you're making my point. Don't you think it'll increase at an even greater pace when the economy turns around and credit starts flowing again? Buy now while it's (relatively) slow.

[Charles]

Originally Posted by CAVA1990

I think you're making my point. Don't you think it'll increase at an even greater pace when the economy turns around and credit starts flowing again? Buy now while it's (relatively) slow.

A lot of people think that housing prices in many parts of Orange County still have farther to fall. The housing prices aren't supported by the median salaries and the Alt-A, Option Arm loans still have a lot of resets.

This is why I posted what appears to be a contradiction. Would like some nuts and bolts explanation.