Ladera Ranch future home prices (San Diego, Orange: sales, HOA, condos)

[julianap]

Originally Posted by missionhome

Ladera is one of the most depressing areas of Orange County. It seems like everyone is dirt broke. Construction was from around 2002 (around there)-2008 which means everybody pretty much bought at the height of the market. Other cities like Mission Viejo, Lake Forest, San Juan Capistrano, etc.... you still have many many families that bought in the 90's and could still sell today and make a profit. The difference is that in Ladera, EVERYONE bought when the market was hot.

You see the spill over at stores. I was at a home decor shop in Ladera and when I went to write a check they said, "Oh no, we don't take checks anymore because most people are bouncing." The sad thing is many Laderians are still trying to "act" like everything is fine. As a general example, Tamra Barney from the Real Housewives of OC is listing her home as a short sale, but then still parades around TV like she is some rich snob. Surprisingly some Laderians aren't that different.

While I love Ladera as a community, I do agree it's depsressing right now in that so many of the residents are going broke (or have gone broke). It seems to be a place where there is a "Keeping up with the Joneses" mentality. A close friend of mine lived there for several years. On her street (10-12 homes) all the wives stayed at home full-time. A third of them also had nannies to some degree. The husbands worked construction or other jobs that aren't necessarily known for high wages. These SAHMs also lunched every day, went to the nail salon weekly, got spa treatments, and shopped Nordie's weekly. HOW CAN THEY AFFORD THIS? Oh, and they also had 3 luxury cars. Her street was NOT unusual in Ladera. It was a mystery to me how these households could keep up the charade.

My guess is many of these households in Ladera are unraveling at the seams, and yet many *seem* to be holding strong. Maybe it's family money? Maybe they are wracking up credit card debt? I don't know. All I know is, so many people are out of work, and so many of these people spent $ like it grew on trees. Now their home values are WAAAAY down. How can they keep up with this? So, I keep wondering.... will LR home prices keep going down? I'd like to think they will b/c I don't see how they won't, but people are telling me the comps show a "leveling out." Craziness.

Do other people who live in Ladera notice this same extravagence? My husband and I are more conservative than most, so maybe I am hyper-sensitive to the spending frenzy and seeming lack of attention to proper financial management in this area.

[missionhome]

As a side note on Ladera Ranch, John Lanser of the OC Register released his new "Zippy Rankings" of Orange County's 83 Zip Codes. Rank of 1 is best performing and a rank of 83 is worst performing.

ZIPPYs O.C.'s ZIP codes ranked for homesales, foreclosures | beach, irvine, anaheim, santa, orange - Business - OCRegister.com

Ladera Ranch's overall ranking is 58 out of 83 zip codes. 70% of Orange County zip codes are doing better and 30% are doing worse according to Lanser.

It ranked 39 for pricing (median $505,000), 28 for sales rank (seems sale must be picking up due to lower prices), but a HORRIBLE 82 for foreclosure rank. Only one other zip code was more in the water with foreclosures and that is 92701 in Santa Ana where the median has fallen to $116,750.

[julianap]

Very interesting. And see, when I look at that foreclosure number I can't help but think that spells BIG TIME trouble for LR prices in the coming years. All it takes is a few "bad comps" (due to foreclosure) for a neighborhood and WHAM!! there go property values. But people tell me differently. It will be interesting to watch.

[bhcompy]

glad to see that the top of that list is populated with established communities(especially underappreciated western and northern cities) rather than south oc insta-cities. there are at least 2 zips missing from that list though.. 90742 (sunset beach) and 90743 (surfside)

[hummingbirdoc]

Originally Posted by julianap

While I love Ladera as a community, I do agree it's depsressing right now in that so many of the residents are going broke (or have gone broke). It seems to be a place where there is a "Keeping up with the Joneses" mentality. A close friend of mine lived there for several years. On her street (10-12 homes) all the wives stayed at home full-time. A third of them also had nannies to some degree. The husbands worked construction or other jobs that aren't necessarily known for high wages. These SAHMs also lunched every day, went to the nail salon weekly, got spa treatments, and shopped Nordie's weekly. HOW CAN THEY AFFORD THIS? Oh, and they also had 3 luxury cars. Her street was NOT unusual in Ladera. It was a mystery to me how these households could keep up the charade.

My guess is many of these households in Ladera are unraveling at the seams, and yet many *seem* to be holding strong. Maybe it's family money? Maybe they are wracking up credit card debt? I don't know. All I know is, so many people are out of work, and so many of these people spent $ like it grew on trees. Now their home values are WAAAAY down. How can they keep up with this? So, I keep wondering.... will LR home prices keep going down? I'd like to think they will b/c I don't see how they won't, but people are telling me the comps show a "leveling out." Craziness.

Do other people who live in Ladera notice this same extravagence? My husband and I are more conservative than most, so maybe I am hyper-sensitive to the spending frenzy and seeming lack of attention to proper financial management in this area.

Those people were living lifestyles they could not afford. I see it all the time out here and now people like me who bought within their budget are paying the price. I have no idea why people feel they have to be so materialistic in OC. It's ridiculous.

[julianap]

These people are definitely living lifestyles they can't afford. I'm just wondering how long it will take for some of these households to crumble because of their poor choices.

My question is.... will a 3000 sq foot house in Ladera Ranch ever go for $500K? You could buy one brand new for that price in 2002. Will we get back there?

[hummingbirdoc]

Originally Posted by julianap

These people are definitely living lifestyles they can't afford. I'm just wondering how long it will take for some of these households to crumble because of their poor choices.

My question is.... will a 3000 sq foot house in Ladera Ranch ever go for $500K? You could buy one brand new for that price in 2002. Will we get back there?

Well, I don't live in Ladera Ranch. I live in a condo community that is closer to the beach but much cheaper than Ladera Ranch. I think there are about 13 more condos in my community in preforeclosure status right now.

I can't imagine what a community like that is facing. I don't see people in those places having saving accounts big enough to deal with a long recession. It's not in their DNA to have a savings buffer.

[julianap]

.... well said. And without that savings buffer I don't see how you stay the course during a recession like this one.

[hummingbirdoc]

Originally Posted by julianap

.... well said. And without that savings buffer I don't see how you stay the course during a recession like this one.

According to this there are over 6,000 homes in trouble in that area. Prices will drop even more.

Cyberhomes.com

[flowermom]

Hi there,

I had to comment on this thread because my family lived in Ladera for 3 years. We bought our home new and luckily sold before the market went down. While we loved the community amenities (pools, parks, etc) and all the young families, the Mello Roos and community fees got to us. There was definitely sort of "flashy" style there. Not really uncommon for Southern Cal. A lot of women with fake boobs, fancy cars, etc.

One thing my husband and I noticed is that everyone was mortgaged to the eyeballs. I think almost all the husbands on our street worked in the mortgage banking industry. They used to laugh at my husband on poker night because we had a conforming 30 year loan. They would tell him, never put money down, get 100% financing, etc. It was crazy. When we sold our house the young couple that bought it financed almost the whole thing. I remember their loan was for over $900,000! I mean, they both worked, but the monthly payment was nuts. They got a five year fixed.

I think a lot of people in Ladera probably have the adjustable rate loans that they used to get into their houses (more house then they could truly afford). We sold in 2005 when the market was still good - anyone that bought a house then with an adjustable will re-set in 2010. My guess is that you will see the prices go down more.

Just my 2 cents.