Ladera Ranch future home prices (sale, foreclosures, lease)

[julianap]

This is the same story my friend tells me about her neighborhood. She too loves the town, but she is always remarking on the same things you mentioned. The area intrigues me (as do some out of state areas) b/c of lower RE prices, but the flashy "wanna-be" lifestyle spells big trouble for the future of the home values in this area IMO. There is no way people can keep up with that lifestyle given our current economy. And if you're not a saver, the well eventually runs dry. And if they got ARMs (which MANY of them did probably) then they are either already in big trouble or they are about to be in big trouble. This is why I wonder.... how much lower will prices go? People will tell me the place is leveling out, but given everything we've all discussed on this thread... I don't see how. ??

[Charles]

Originally Posted by julianap

will a 3000 sq foot house in Ladera Ranch ever go for $500K?

Not yet, but I think we're getting there.

Here are a few 3000 sqft homes recently sold for $500K and less in Mission Viejo and Laguna Hills:

26651 Dorothea, Mission Viejo, CA 92691 - Zillow

26751 Via Grande, Mission Viejo, CA 92691 - Zillow

26202 Glen Canyon Dr, Laguna Hills, CA 92653 - Zillow

26506 Anselmo, Mission Viejo, CA 92691 - Zillow

Here's are a few in Ladera Ranch but not 3000 sqft (yet), also sold for less than $500K.

5 Mill Ridge Farm, Ladera Ranch, CA 92694 - Zillow

10 Celestine Cir, Ladera Ranch, CA 92694 - Zillow

9 Keystone Dr, Ladera Ranch, CA 92694 - Zillow

Still, the killers for Ladera and anything pretty new isn't the price, its the Mello Roos and HOA. I see the same thing in northern San Diego County like in 4S Ranch. 4S Ranch is San Diego's Ladera Ranch.


(Notice I use Zillow to pull recent sales data and not Redfin? Redfin is the king of real estate websites in SoCal - except when pulling recent sales data. Redfin still has big data problems with recent sales in south OC. I have been emailing back and forth with a redfin engineer who says within a month or so Redfin will be using a new data provider which should get rid of the annoying recent sales data problems for south OC.)

[missionhome]

^^
The properties on Dorothea and Anselmo in MV are condos up against the MV Country Club. They are large, but still condos. The Via Grande property sounds like a good deal, even despite going to Viejo Elementary.

[ehcsrop]

Mello-Roos is about, I say about, 10% more over the state property taxes. HOA adds a fixed figure, so it's all about when you buy and how much you paid. HOA is the same for everyone, the other 2 aren't.

I lived in MV for 13 years, I wouldn't go back. But the comment about South OC insta-cities is oof the mark when you consider MV and Lake Forrest. MV was built out pretty well by the 80's starting in '68. LF is el Toro which goes back to the 1800's. Still, LF was built out about the same time as MV.

Now, RSM, Alisio Viejo and the like are truly children of the 90's and the new millennium. Don't get me started about Foothill or Ladera, they popped up so fast I didn't even know they were there.

I left in '93 and won't even drive down there.

[Charles]

Originally Posted by missionhome

^^
The properties on Dorothea and Anselmo in MV are condos up against the MV Country Club. They are large, but still condos. The Via Grande property sounds like a good deal, even despite going to Viejo Elementary.

I had zillow filtered on SFR. I guess I better double check next time.

[Charles]

Originally Posted by ehcsrop

Mello-Roos is about, I say about, 10% more over the state property taxes.

You can pull the Mello Roos (if any) for any OC property from here:

County Of Orange - Treasurer-Tax Collector's Office


For example, down below is the bill for 7 Flintridge, which is listed for $749K (sold for $950K in 2005).

http://www.redfin.com/CA/Ladera-Ranc...4/home/5826193

Note that Mello Roos plus assessments is about $3800/year. That's in addition to the property tax (which changes with assessed value). The Mello Roos stays constant and has a finite life.

The HOA is $200/month or $2400 per year.

(Graphic below is public data from the OC tax assessor.)

[k374]

I know people in Ladera who are upside down on their houses and facing resets next year, ALL of them have proclaimed that there is no point paying and they are just going to surrender the keys to the bank next year unless the banks drastically modify their loans... we'll see what happens to this neighborhood next year! good luck.

[bmwguydc]

I have never understood the hype of Ladera Ranch, especially when the market was in an upward swing. It's not the same as a Coto de Caza, which took about 25 years for full build out, and Coto has a good housing mix, from affordable condos to large estate homes. Ladera has always seemed to be a master plan that was focused more on the perception of marketing a lifestyle as opposed to creating a community, and has been on fast forward to build and sell as fast as possible. Compared to Ladera, the benefits to Coto are overwhelmingly stacked in Coto's favor, inluding golf, parks, and backing on the Cleveland National Forest, not to mention that the entire community is gated, not just a section. Ladera Ranch doesn't have a distinguishing factor, IMO, and there are other South County areas that are not so bereft of identity. It's not a horrible place, but I think that prices have a way to go before they bottom out completely.

[00molavi]

When we were looking in that area we felt that Ladera was overpriced. This was in '06, when people would say they lived in Ladera with a grin and wait to see how you reacted. I didn't get it, esp with the mello roos and HOA. I told my agent that with my math I would be able to buy something bigger in Laguna Niguel or MV for the same monthly expense, with the difference that I had more privacy (larger lots) and also knowing that if I won the lottery I could pay the whole thing off. You can't do that with the Mello Roos and HOA. Granted we ended up moving to LA, and now we are somewhere that has both MR and HOA, but much lower than LR.

[killer2021]

Originally Posted by julianap

I hadn't thought of how HOA and/or Mello Roos could affect the health of a micromarket within OC. Makes total sense now that I think of this. I had read in places that Ladera prices were leveling out which just shocked me (thus prompting this post). I don't see how that area avoids further decreases in price, but what do I know?!

Very true. Jobs are EVERYTHING in this market.

-50% of what the prices are today.