U.S. CitiesCity-Data Forum Index
Happy Halloween!
Go Back   City-Data Forum > U.S. Forums > California > Orange County
 [Register]
Please register to participate in our discussions with 1.5 million other members - it's free and quick! Some forums can only be seen by registered members. After you create your account, you'll be able to customize options and access all our 15,000 new posts/day with fewer ads.
Jump to a detailed profile or search
site with Google Custom Search

Search Forums  (Advanced)
Business Search - 14 Million verified businesses
Search for:  near: 
Reply Start New Thread
 
Old 09-09-2009, 12:51 PM
 
31 posts, read 54,472 times
Reputation: 12
Without a solid job market I do not see how a place like Ladera (along with all the other things working against it-- Mello Roos, HOA, new community built during the boom, LOTS of ARMs, etc.) doesn't continue to lose value. Some people are saying comps are going up. I think this may be a freak thing....
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message

 
Old 10-04-2009, 09:26 PM
 
16 posts, read 47,293 times
Reputation: 14
If you find a home you love, and want to remaiin in for a few years, now is a good time to buy. Some people love Ladera. Wagon Wheel is also good and there are incredible buys in RSM.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-05-2009, 01:07 AM
 
Location: Mission Viejo, CA
41 posts, read 133,832 times
Reputation: 35
Quote:
Originally Posted by jenell View Post
If you find a home you love, and want to remaiin in for a few years, now is a good time to buy. Some people love Ladera. Wagon Wheel is also good and there are incredible buys in RSM.

With all due respect this logic is flawed. If a home that is priced at $650,000 today, declines another $100K--(an additional 20% decline in OC is not outside the realm of possibility given the current job market, the rise in personal bankruptcies, the number of foreclosures that have yet to be dumped on the market) do you realize how long it will take for you to recover that $100K loss? Given a 4% average annual appreciation thereafter it would take 20 years for you to just break even!!!!! So, if you stay in a home the average number of 7 years you are still upside down over $75K. I don't think that makes this a good time to buy. As far as the low interest rate, I would further argue that I would rather pay 6.5% on $500K than 5.25% on $600K. Why? Because, interest is deductible, can be renegotiated to a lower rate, and when I go to sell the home the interest rate is gone, the mortgage balance is not. Oh yeah, let's not forget the 20% down payment. Also, property taxes on a lower sale price is a factor too.
I would say it is a better time to buy than it was 2 or 3 years ago but there is still a substantial risk in the OC housing market. Don't create a false sense of urgency.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-05-2009, 07:19 AM
 
96 posts, read 164,358 times
Reputation: 201
Ladera was a great community when we lived there a couple of years ago, but we were very mindful of the financial time bomb that building in that community. We did notice that there were many people who by as much as we could tell (based on jobs, education, etc) likely made less money than we did, but lived far, FAR more extravagantly. Actually they lived at about double to triple their actual income. We rented a house for a hair above what the taxes, Mello Roos, insurance and HOA were; to say nothing about the actual cost of the loan and interest on the property.

There was no way to justify buying when rent to buy ratio was so far out of whack. We also read some disturbing articles at the time about "Fraudera Ranch"; chilling accounts of how one family "bought" nearly 4-5 million dollars of overpriced property to and from themselves in 04 through 06. This artificially bumped up comps, gave a false impression of value, etc. I am sure this was repeated time and time again by many others. We wont compete with fraudsters who will lie, cheat, and steal there way to the top.

We made a decision to rent forever if we had to, rather than buy into a lie. We were very happy renting, peace of mind, lower costs, and as prices dropped around us, relief as anxiety was hitting many of our neighbors (many of whom we felt sad for as they were generally good hearted, but became slaves to a lie).

I believe that prices will continue to slide as there is no economic justification to support the current prices, with another 20-30% occurring over the next 5 years. The world is in a major deflationary cycle, and the only reason home prices haven't dropped more is because of MASSIVE gov't intervention, with the GSE's doing most of the lending these days with minuscule down payments. That too will likely dwindle over time and continue to put downward pressure on prices.

Rent a home that you can comfortably afford, live in an area you like, and only buy when there is little financial strain.

Don't become a slave to a lie. Ladera properties will be cheaper in the future. Patience will likely be rewarded.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-05-2009, 07:20 AM
 
Location: Las Flores, Orange County, CA
26,362 posts, read 54,228,764 times
Reputation: 16312
Quote:
Originally Posted by killer2021 View Post
-50% of what the prices are today.
The average SFR sales price for Ladera Ranch in the past three months is about $640K. (The link below is three months resales, 72 homes sold, zip 92694)

Recent SFR Sales 92694

The median household income for 92694 is about $102K.

So, does anybody really think that number will go down to $320K? Or even $420K?
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-06-2009, 01:12 PM
 
Location: Olympus Mons, Mars
2,837 posts, read 4,330,422 times
Reputation: 2183
Quote:
Originally Posted by julianap View Post
Some people are saying comps are going up. I think this may be a freak thing....
Yes, comps are going up but that is very temporary especially due to virtually zero downpayment FHA lending with DTI ratios upto 50%. This government run ponzi scheme which has been started recently by the Obama administration will have to come to a stop as well sometime.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-06-2009, 01:22 PM
 
Location: LB/OC for now...
5,112 posts, read 11,799,973 times
Reputation: 1787
Quote:
Originally Posted by Charles View Post
The average SFR sales price for Ladera Ranch in the past three months is about $640K. (The link below is three months resales, 72 homes sold, zip 92694)

Recent SFR Sales 92694

The median household income for 92694 is about $102K.

So, does anybody really think that number will go down to $320K? Or even $420K?
dont proper metrics support a 4:1 price:earnings ratio? That would suggest the low 400s would be the proper price range(not counting the very high taxes for the area, which should push it even lower).
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-06-2009, 04:35 PM
 
191 posts, read 368,276 times
Reputation: 78
Quote:
Originally Posted by bhcompy View Post
dont proper metrics support a 4:1 price:earnings ratio? That would suggest the low 400s would be the proper price range(not counting the very high taxes for the area, which should push it even lower).
+1. Well stated.

The current values remain inflated by excessive use of exotic financing. The correction process is long and painful (with most of the pain reserved for the banks).
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-08-2009, 02:39 PM
 
31 posts, read 54,472 times
Reputation: 12
[quote=threeactingup;11049565]With all due respect this logic is flawed. If a home that is priced at $650,000 today, declines another $100K--(an additional 20% decline in OC is not outside the realm of possibility given the current job market, the rise in personal bankruptcies, the number of foreclosures that have yet to be dumped on the market) do you realize how long it will take for you to recover that $100K loss? Given a 4% average annual appreciation thereafter it would take 20 years for you to just break even!!!!! So, if you stay in a home the average number of 7 years you are still upside down over $75K. I don't think that makes this a good time to buy. As far as the low interest rate, I would further argue that I would rather pay 6.5% on $500K than 5.25% on $600K. Why? Because, interest is deductible, can be renegotiated to a lower rate, and when I go to sell the home the interest rate is gone, the mortgage balance is not. Oh yeah, let's not forget the 20% down payment. Also, property taxes on a lower sale price is a factor too.



Well said and so true!

I think the uptick in home sales and comps is very temporary. The more and more I think about this, the more I think there is NO WAY LR prices continue to creep back up. Too many factors against it. Next spring/summer will be telling.....
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
 
Old 10-10-2009, 03:09 PM
 
2,415 posts, read 1,474,869 times
Reputation: 1985
I live in Ladera and have for two years. All anyone has to do is take a drive up to the shopping center next to Pavillions. It's a ghost town. Every other building is up for lease. Ladera is a sad place. It's only going to get worse. Prices here are VERY inflated even now. The banks have lost A LOT of money with this place and aren't going to budge on prices at all. I still even now with the economy the way it is how some of these people make their money. My wife and I both have good jobs and a household income of $140K and we could barely afford a $500K house here. We are renting and are getting the fock out of this state, it's a joke in so many ways. Big government up your arse taxing you to death.

The average mortage on a house in Ladera is $3000+. Add in all these fancy cars Laderans own, the lavish spending, etc. I guess everyone here is a dentist, doctor, or business owner? I don't feel too sorry for folks. Most got themselves into this mess.
Reply With Quote Quick reply to this message
Please register to post and access all features of our very popular forum. It is free and quick. Over $68,000 in prizes has already been given out to active posters on our forum. Additional giveaways are planned.

Detailed information about all U.S. cities, counties, and zip codes on our site: City-data.com.


Reply
Please update this thread with any new information or opinions. This open thread is still read by thousands of people, so we encourage all additional points of view.

Quick Reply
Message:


Options
X
Data:
Loading data...
Based on 2000-2011 data
Loading data...

123
Hide US histogram

Over $84,000 in prizes was already given out to active posters on our forum and additional giveaways are planned!

Go Back   City-Data Forum > U.S. Forums > California > Orange County
Similar Threads

All times are GMT -6.

2005-2014, Advameg, Inc.

City-Data.com - Archive 1, 2, 3, 4, 5, 6, 7, 8, 9, 10, 11, 12, 13, 14, 15, 16, 17, 18, 19, 20, 21, 22, 23, 24, 25 - Top